| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Ends in 42d | Yes | 10,000 | 72¢ → 61¢ | $6,050 | −$1,150 −16% |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Ends in 7d | Yes | 7,538 | 69¢ → 67¢ | $5,050 | −$188 −3.6% |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 10,960 | 36¢ → 30¢ | $3,233 | −$699 −18% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 2,849 | 65¢ → 76¢ | $2,151 | +$287 +15% |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Ends in 440d | Yes | 4,882 | 44¢ → 33¢ | $1,587 | −$556 −26% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | No | 6,000 | 17¢ → 23¢ | $1,395 | +$399 +40% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 5,532 | 22¢ → 24¢ | $1,300 | +$77 +6.3% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 4,662 | 68¢ → 26¢ | $1,189 | −$1,966 −62% |
| Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Ends in 440d | Yes | 4,899 | 23¢ → 18¢ | $882 | −$243 −22% |
| Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?Ends in 8h | Yes | 2,019 | 36¢ → 43¢ | $868 | +$151 +21% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 1,110 | 8¢ → 77¢ | $857 | +$773 +929% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Ends in 78d | No | 663 | 43¢ → 94¢ | $620 | +$336 +118% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 7,494 | 16¢ → 6¢ | $412 | −$787 −66% |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,945 | 11¢ → 14¢ | $398 | +$70 +21% |
| Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?Ends ended | Yes | 518 | 51¢ → 55¢ | $282 | +$20 +7.7% |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 243 | 35¢ → 28¢ | $69 | −$16 −19% |
| Will the International Association of Judges win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 2,431 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$717 −100% |
| Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 348 | 28¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$97 −100% |
| Will Tukaka George Tamarua Ama win the Ngatangiia constituency in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,413 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$76 −100% |
| Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will AfD win 42-45 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,175 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$647 −100% |
| Will John Larson be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 14,828 | 17¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2,533 −100% |
| Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 802 | 38¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$309 −100% |
| Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the International Peace Research Association win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5,027 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$89 −100% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 7,163 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,895 −100% |
| Will Yad Vashem win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,351 | 11¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$142 −100% |
| Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,975 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,186 −100% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 59,237 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6,071 −100% |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 73,085 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4,002 −100% |
| Will Donavan McKinney win the MI-13 Democratic primary by at least 16%?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 371 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$37 −100% |
| No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,081 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$138 −100% |
| Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,729 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$662 −100% |
| Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,632 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$232 −100% |
| Will Nate Pollnow be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 376 | 43¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$161 −100% |
| Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 12,455 | 25¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,138 −100% |
| Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 5,994 | 28¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,700 −100% |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,646 | 19¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$501 −100% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 4,815 | 52¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2,511 −100% |
| Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be 120,000 voters or higher?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 473 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$142 −100% |
| Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5,377 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,688 −100% |
| Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 6,166 | 11¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$696 −100% |
| Will ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Kyle Blomquist be the MI-01 Democratic nominee?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 20,421 | 22¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4,561 −100% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 430 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$45 −100% |
| Will the Parents Circle – Families Forum win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,447 | 33¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,145 −100% |
| Will Callie Barr be the MI-01 Democratic nominee?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 2,732 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$546 −100% |
| Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5,373 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$103 −100% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 10,474 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,047 −100% |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 11,279 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,422 −100% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 34,308 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2,433 −100% |
| Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 8,411 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$503 −100% |
| Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 167 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$43 −100% |
| Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Ilham Tohti win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 47,264 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2,833 −100% |
| Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,466 | 45¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$666 −100% |
| Will Andy Ogles be the TN-05 Republican nominee?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,014 | 75¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$765 −100% |
| Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by 20–25%?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 240 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$39 −100% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 35,290 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$805 −100% |
| Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,901 | 28¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,102 −100% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,603 | 45¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$722 −100% |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 319 | 77¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$245 −100% |
| Will World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 10,267 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,435 −100% |
| Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 8,697 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$870 −100% |
| Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 660 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$224 −100% |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 378 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$173 −100% |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 6,500 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2,011 −100% |
| Will Eliott Rodriguez be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,309 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$264 −100% |
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 782 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$99 −100% |
| Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,742 | 37¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$641 −100% |
| Will PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,976 | 28¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$824 −100% |
| Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 10–15%?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,257 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$73 −100% |
| Will Doctors Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 4,137 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$620 −100% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 12,094 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$636 −100% |
| Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,476 | 19¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$663 −100% |
| Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 4,862 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$170 −100% |
| Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Robin Peguero be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 834 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$149 −100% |
| Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 3,602 | 74¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2,677 −100% |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 9,777 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,371 −100% |
| Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 7,147 | 48¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,463 −100% |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,100 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$336 −100% |
| Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 607 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$23 −100% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,000 | 73¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$730 −100% |
| Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,498 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$31 −100% |
