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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Putin | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Emmanuel Macron | 0% | — | −48 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Tucker Carlson | 100% | — | +48 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 100% | +56 pts | +86 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Barack Obama | 100% | +5 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Freidrich Merz | 0% | −4 pts | −10 pts | <1¢ · 2¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| Joe Biden | 100% | +1 pts | — | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0% | −37 pts | −31 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Xi Jinping | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Kevin Warsh | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Kaitlan Collins | 100% | +28 pts | +58 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Nicolás Maduro | 100% | +58 pts | +43 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Melania Trump | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jerome Powell | 0% | −2 pts | −38 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| J.D. Vance | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Keir Starmer | 0% | −8 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Elon Musk | 0% | −4 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Pope Leo XIV | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Pam Bondi | 0% | +1 pts | −4 pts | — · 2¢ | — | ended |
| Viktor Orbán | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Candace Owens | 0% | −7 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Alex Jones | 0% | −47 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Norah O'Donnell | 0% | −7 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Megyn Kelly | 0% | −6 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jimmy Kimmel | 100% | +49 pts | +89 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73d |  tetrase5 fills | Tucker Carlson | SellYes>99¢ | $43,567 | −$44 −0.1% | — |
| 74d |  ZhangMuZhisDaddy | Freidrich Merz | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,725 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 74d |  C6H6 | Freidrich Merz | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,993 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 74d | 0x2CA | Freidrich Merz | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,798 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 74d | thoodr2 fills | Freidrich Merz | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,185 | +$26 +0.5% | 4 |
| 74d |  paddaa | Emmanuel Macron | SellNo>99¢ | $3,025 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 74d |  Valen9 | Emmanuel Macron | SellNo>99¢ | $12,987 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 75d |  zb82 fills | Tucker Carlson | SellYes>99¢ | $18,519 | −$19 −0.1% | — |
| 75d | oilmoneyw | Tucker Carlson | SellYes>99¢ | $1,498 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 75d | Cruel-EnvyNew account | Tucker Carlson | SellYes>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 75d | imADifficultPerson | Emmanuel Macron | SellNo>99¢ | $1,249 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 76d | 0x8931…a90c | Emmanuel Macron | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,170 | +$30 +0.1% | 4 |
| 76d |  Rex416 | Tucker Carlson | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 76d |  xcvsgdd | Vladimir Putin | SellNo>99¢ | $6,083 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 76d | Another-Allowance | Emmanuel Macron | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,416 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 76d | Embellished-Cruise | Tucker Carlson | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 76d | 033033033 | Emmanuel Macron | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 76d |  The-Joker | Emmanuel Macron | SellNo>99¢ | $1,303 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 76d | Admirable-Poem | Emmanuel Macron | SellNo>99¢ | $4,124 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 76d |  yen4u5 fills | Marjorie Taylor Greene | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $10,287 | +$266 +2.6% | 4 |
| 76d |  aenews2 | Marjorie Taylor Greene | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,803 | +$13 +0.5% | 4 |
| 76d |  AlphaSquirrel | Tucker Carlson | SellYes>99¢ | $7,676 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 76d | OutcomeUnclear | Emmanuel Macron | SellNo>99¢ | $1,996 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 76d |  Mewtube | Tucker Carlson | SellYes>99¢ | $1,124 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 76d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29 | Emmanuel Macron | SellNo>99¢ | $13,410 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 76d | yougotme | Marjorie Taylor Greene | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,175 | +$134 +11% | 4 |
| 76d |  ErnstKuzorra | Vladimir Putin | SellNo>99¢ | $2,697 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 76d | ErnstKuzorra | Emmanuel Macron | SellNo>99¢ | $2,257 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 76d | ErnstKuzorra | Tucker Carlson | SellYes>99¢ | $3,476 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 76d |  Warren-Buffett | Marjorie Taylor Greene | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$400 +25% | 4 |
| 76d | UZZ242 | Tucker Carlson | SellYes>99¢ | $1,222 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 76d |  pferdah | Tucker Carlson | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 76d | wigglew | Tucker Carlson | SellYes>99¢ | $3,703 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 76d | yougotme | Emmanuel Macron | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,952 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 76d |  poorersob | Emmanuel Macron | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 76d | poorersob | Vladimir Putin | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,560 | +$12 +0.1% | 4 |
| 76d |  brunko | Tucker Carlson | SellYes>99¢ | $2,416 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 76d | thanksmom2 fills | Emmanuel Macron | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,369 | +$17 +0.1% | 4 |
| 76d | whig | Tucker Carlson | SellYes>99¢ | $1,001 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 76d |  abhionpoly | Tucker Carlson | SellYes>99¢ | $1,023 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 76d | Domerthegoaaatttt | Tucker Carlson | SellYes>99¢ | $14,887 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 76d | tetrase | Tucker Carlson | BuyYes>99¢ | $30,490 | +$36 +0.1% | 4 |
| 76d | anonymousgecko | Tucker Carlson | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,014 | −$9 −0.9% | — |
| 76d |  BBX1GbDS012 | Tucker Carlson | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,144 | −$32 −1.0% | — |
| 76d |  BertapotamousCopyTrader2 fills | Emmanuel Macron | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $3,270 | +$1,038 +32% | 4 |
| 76d | disput00r | Tucker Carlson | BuyYes63¢ → 100¢ | $1,555 | +$921 +59% | 4 |
| 76d | AlphaBetaGamma2357 | Tucker Carlson | BuyNo40¢ → 0¢ | $1,323 | −$1,323 −100% | 5 |
| 76d | pferdah | Tucker Carlson | BuyYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$667 +67% | 4 |
| 76d | The-Joker | Emmanuel Macron | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,024 | +$281 +27% | 4 |
| 76d |  mr.ozi2 fills | Tucker Carlson | BuyNo35¢ → 0¢ | $3,968 | −$3,968 −100% | 8 |
| 76d | Cruel-EnvyNew account | Tucker Carlson | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $1,035 | +$489 +47% | 19 |
| 76d | zb8 | Tucker Carlson | BuyYes59¢ → 100¢ | $11,618 | +$8,078 +70% | 4 |
| 76d | Admirable-Poem | Tucker Carlson | SellNo41¢ → 0¢ | $1,131 | +$1,131 +100% | — |
| 77d |  charliegooseman | Tucker Carlson | SellYes57¢ → 100¢ | $2,745 | −$2,059 −75% | — |
| 77d |  Dropper | Tucker Carlson | BuyNo36¢ → 0¢ | $5,268 | −$5,268 −100% | 8 |
| 77d | Admirable-Poem | Emmanuel Macron | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$529 +26% | 4 |
| 77d |  clazzy1 | Tucker Carlson | SellYes61¢ → 100¢ | $1,628 | −$1,041 −64% | — |
| 77d | aenews2 | Tucker Carlson | BuyNo34¢ → 0¢ | $4,706 | −$4,706 −100% | 9 |
| 77d | kukubaja | Vladimir Putin | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 4 |
| 77d | aenews2 | Emmanuel Macron | SellNo79¢ → 100¢ | $19,683 | −$5,233 −27% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Vladimir Putin means the market gives it about 0%.
