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Polymarket · Politics
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 92% | — | +2 pts | 91¢ · 93¢ (2¢) | — | in 257d |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 94% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 93¢ · 94¢ (1¢) | — | in 257d |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 3% | — | — | 3¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | — | in 181d |
| Dominique de Villepin | 31% | — | — | 30¢ · 31¢ (1¢) | — | in 257d |
| Édouard Philippe | 81% | +1 pts | −10 pts | 80¢ · 81¢ (1¢) | — | in 257d |
| François Asselineau | 12% | −1 pts | −6 pts | 11¢ · 12¢ (1¢) | — | in 257d |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 6% | — | −4 pts | 5¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | — | in 183d |
| Teddy Riner | 7% | 0 pts | +2 pts | 6¢ · 8¢ (2¢) | — | in 183d |
| Karim Bouamrane | 5% | — | — | 5¢ · 5¢ (<1¢) | — | in 183d |
| Michel-Edouard Leclerc | 5% | 0 pts | +2 pts | 4¢ · 6¢ (2¢) | — | in 183d |
| Bally Bagayoko | 4% | 0 pts | −4 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 183d |
| Juan Branco | 8% | — | — | 7¢ · 9¢ (2¢) | — | in 183d |
| Jérôme Guedj | 4% | — | −1 pts | 3¢ · 5¢ (2¢) | — | in 183d |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 88% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 87¢ · 89¢ (2¢) | — | in 183d |
| Gérald Darmanin | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 183d |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 5% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 5¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 183d |
| François Bayrou | 5% | — | 0 pts | 5¢ · 5¢ (<1¢) | — | in 183d |
| Carole Delga | 5% | — | 0 pts | 5¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 183d |
| Fabien Roussel | 86% | — | +5 pts | 83¢ · 88¢ (5¢) | — | in 257d |
| Ségolène Royal | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 257d |
| Manuel Bompard | 5% | — | — | 5¢ · 5¢ (<1¢) | — | in 183d |
| Philippe de Villiers | 5% | — | 0 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 183d |
| Jean Castex | 5% | — | 0 pts | 5¢ · 6¢ (<1¢) | — | in 183d |
| Jean-Michel Fauvergue | 6% | — | −1 pts | 5¢ · 7¢ (2¢) | — | in 183d |
| Mathilde Panot | 4% | — | 0 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (<1¢) | — | in 183d |
| Michel Barnier | 6% | — | 0 pts | 6¢ · 7¢ (<1¢) | — | in 257d |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 71% | +1 pts | +4 pts | 59¢ · 82¢ (23¢) | — | in 257d |
| Élisabeth Borne | 7% | — | 0 pts | 6¢ · 8¢ (1¢) | — | in 183d |
| Clémentine Autain | 3% | 0 pts | +2 pts | 1¢ · 5¢ (4¢) | — | in 257d |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 6% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 6¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | — | in 183d |
| Valérie Pécresse | 4% | 0 pts | — | 4¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | — | in 183d |
| Manuel Valls | 5% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 183d |
| Xavier Bertrand | 6% | +1 pts | −6 pts | 5¢ · 6¢ (2¢) | $1.02K | in 257d |
| Matthieu Pigasse | 6% | −3 pts | −5 pts | 5¢ · 7¢ (2¢) | $640 | in 183d |
| François Hollande | 28% | −3 pts | −12 pts | 26¢ · 29¢ (3¢) | $559 | in 257d |
| Gabriel Attal | 28% | +7 pts | +8 pts | 24¢ · 31¢ (7¢) | $292 | in 257d |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 82% | — | +22 pts | 81¢ · 83¢ (2¢) | $132 | in 257d |
| Olivier Faure | 6% | 0 pts | −5 pts | 4¢ · 7¢ (3¢) | $112 | in 257d |
| Marine Tondelier | 31% | −1 pts | +2 pts | 30¢ · 31¢ (1¢) | $100 | in 257d |
| Bruno Retailleau | 58% | −3 pts | +2 pts | 56¢ · 60¢ (4¢) | $99.8 | in 257d |
| David Lisnard | 78% | — | +4 pts | 77¢ · 78¢ (1¢) | $51.6 | in 257d |
| Jordan Bardella | 7% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 7¢ · 8¢ (1¢) | $49 | in 257d |
| Sarah Knafo | 16% | −2 pts | −3 pts | 14¢ · 17¢ (3¢) | $34 | in 183d |
| Delphine Batho | 10% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 9¢ · 11¢ (2¢) | $22 | in 183d |
| François Ruffin | 19% | −4 pts | −6 pts | 17¢ · 20¢ (3¢) | $16.5 | in 257d |
| Éric Zemmour | 82% | +1 pts | −2 pts | 79¢ · 85¢ (6¢) | $11 | in 257d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d | resuildde | Raphaël Glucksmann | BuyYes86¢ → 82¢ | $1,670 | −$76 −4.5% | 19 |
| 19d |  0xdc3E831cad | François Hollande | BuyNo50¢ → 73¢ | $2,118 | +$974 +46% | 30 |
| 21d | Vusion | Sarah Knafo | SellNo93¢ → 85¢ | $1,461 | +$133 +9.1% | — |
| 27d |  Fuentes31 | David Lisnard | BuyNo41¢ → 22¢ | $1,000 | −$453 −45% | 30 |
| 28d |  DFK3 fills | Jordan Bardella | BuyNo88¢ → 93¢ | $5,118 | +$249 +4.9% | 18 |
| 35d | korETHja | Édouard Philippe | SellYes84¢ → 81¢ | $1,345 | +$59 +4.4% | — |
| 39d | DFK | Marine Le Pen | BuyYes88¢ → 92¢ | $1,541 | +$70 +4.5% | 10 |
| 47d | Fuentes31 | Sarah Knafo | SellYes36¢ → 16¢ | $1,766 | +$1,005 +57% | — |
| 92d | DIDI8686 | Marine Le Pen | SellYes90¢ → 92¢ | $1,070 | −$24 −2.2% | — |
| 101d | StudentMoney | Marine Le Pen | BuyYes82¢ → 92¢ | $1,230 | +$152 +12% | 10 |
| 101d | StudentMoney | Jordan Bardella | BuyNo80¢ → 93¢ | $4,311 | +$660 +15% | 23 |
| 137d |  nicoco89 | Laurent Wauquiez | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $2,882 | +$202 +7.0% | 10 |
| 156d | korETHja | Édouard Philippe | BuyYes87¢ → 81¢ | $1,337 | −$100 −7.5% | 10 |
DFK5,236 shares
archaic647 shares
Mathis.BTC423 shares
FrozenParasite138 shares
LornaPredicts675 shares
Zarshka500 sharesThe next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 92¢ for Marine Le Pen means the market gives it about 92%.