| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 1,431 | 78¢ → 81¢ | $1,152 | +$40 +3.6% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 743 | 84¢ → 85¢ | $628 | +$4 +0.6% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d | No | 502 | >99¢ → >99¢ | $501 | +$1 +0.1% |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 17d | No | 781 | 64¢ → 64¢ | $496 | −$4 −0.8% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 794 | 63¢ → 63¢ | $496 | −$4 −0.8% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 585 | 82¢ → 81¢ | $471 | −$9 −1.8% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 667 | 76¢ → 71¢ | $471 | −$35 −6.9% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 539 | 78¢ → 79¢ | $423 | +$3 +0.6% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | No | 571 | 70¢ → 73¢ | $414 | +$14 +3.6% |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 444 | 91¢ → 91¢ | $402 | −$2 −0.5% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?Ends in 17d | No | 560 | 67¢ → 68¢ | $379 | +$5 +1.4% |
| Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 442 | 88¢ → 86¢ | $378 | −$9 −2.4% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 43d | No | 528 | 57¢ → 61¢ | $319 | +$17 +5.7% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Ends in 18d | No | 495 | 69¢ → 65¢ | $319 | −$23 −6.8% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Ends in 79d | Yes | 462 | 67¢ → 64¢ | $293 | −$14 −4.7% |
| Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 530d | No | 288 | 98¢ → 98¢ | $282 | −$0 −0.1% |
| Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Ends ended | Yes | 347 | 79¢ → 72¢ | $248 | −$26 −9.4% |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 183d | No | 277 | 87¢ → 88¢ | $245 | +$3 +1.3% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?Ends in 5d | No | 252 | 89¢ → 93¢ | $235 | +$10 +4.5% |
| Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Google by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 235 | 99¢ → 98¢ | $231 | −$0 −0.1% |
| Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 531d | Yes | 281 | 77¢ → 82¢ | $229 | +$12 +5.3% |
| Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 230 | 97¢ → 96¢ | $220 | −$4 −1.7% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 222 | 84¢ → 77¢ | $171 | −$16 −8.7% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Ends in 79d | No | 199 | 79¢ → 86¢ | $170 | +$13 +8.2% |
| Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 183 | 88¢ → 88¢ | $160 | −$1 −0.6% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 221 | 62¢ → 70¢ | $153 | +$17 +12% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?Ends in 18d | No | 176 | 84¢ → 86¢ | $152 | +$4 +2.4% |
| Will Isabel Díaz Ayuso be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 531d | No | 144 | 99¢ → >99¢ | $143 | +$1 +0.6% |
| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Ends in 42d | Yes | 212 | 66¢ → 61¢ | $128 | −$11 −8.1% |
| Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 134 | 82¢ → 89¢ | $119 | +$9 +8.0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Ends in 29d | No | 261 | 46¢ → 45¢ | $116 | −$4 −3.3% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 483 | 28¢ → 24¢ | $113 | −$22 −16% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseEnds in 17d | No | 123 | 92¢ → 92¢ | $112 | −$0 −0.3% |
| Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?Ends in 440d | No | 137 | 89¢ → 82¢ | $112 | −$10 −7.9% |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?Ends in 43d | No | 237 | 33¢ → 44¢ | $103 | +$24 +31% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 101 | 92¢ → 92¢ | $92 | −$1 −0.8% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 93 | 88¢ → 94¢ | $87 | +$5 +6.5% |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended | Yes | 108 | 82¢ → 79¢ | $85 | −$4 −4.3% |
| Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Ends in 9d | Yes | 111 | 85¢ → 75¢ | $83 | −$11 −12% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Ends in 165d | No | 183 | 35¢ → 43¢ | $78 | +$14 +21% |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 227 | 44¢ → 34¢ | $76 | −$24 −24% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Ends in 440d | Yes | 116 | 55¢ → 60¢ | $70 | +$6 +8.6% |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Ends in 76d | Yes | 105 | 48¢ → 62¢ | $65 | +$14 +28% |
| Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 106 | 73¢ → 60¢ | $64 | −$13 −17% |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 43d | No | 308 | 31¢ → 21¢ | $63 | −$33 −34% |
| Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?Ends in 75d | No | 75 | 80¢ → 77¢ | $57 | −$3 −4.4% |
| No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 58 | 98¢ → 97¢ | $57 | −$1 −1.3% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 284 | 29¢ → 20¢ | $55 | −$28 −33% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 440d | Yes | 530 | 10¢ → 10¢ | $53 | −$2 −3.6% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 171 | 38¢ → 31¢ | $52 | −$13 −20% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Ends in 106d | Yes | 85 | 54¢ → 61¢ | $52 | +$6 +13% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Ends in 75d | No | 65 | 74¢ → 77¢ | $50 | +$2 +4.6% |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Ends in 7d | Yes | 72 | 67¢ → 67¢ | $48 | +$0 +0.5% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 80 | 52¢ → 56¢ | $44 | +$3 +6.7% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Ends in 106d | Yes | 73 | 46¢ → 56¢ | $40 | +$7 +21% |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 222 | 18¢ → 18¢ | $39 | −$1 −2.8% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 53 | 72¢ → 73¢ | $38 | +$0 +0.7% |
| Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 10d | No | 52 | 59¢ → 73¢ | $38 | +$7 +24% |
| Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 102 | 49¢ → 35¢ | $35 | −$14 −29% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028?Ends in 439d | Yes | 51 | 65¢ → 66¢ | $34 | +$0 +0.4% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 222 | 18¢ → 14¢ | $32 | −$8 −19% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 114 | 30¢ → 28¢ | $31 | −$3 −8.2% |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 183d | Yes | 66 | 44¢ → 46¢ | $31 | +$1 +4.9% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?Ends ended | No | 38 | 75¢ → 76¢ | $29 | +$0 +0.6% |
| Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 29 | 97¢ → 97¢ | $28 | −$0 −0.8% |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?Ends in 43d | Yes | 45 | 68¢ → 56¢ | $26 | −$5 −17% |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 146 | 15¢ → 18¢ | $26 | +$4 +17% |
| Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 29 | 84¢ → 88¢ | $25 | +$1 +4.2% |
| Will Jaroslav Polaček win the 2026 Košice mayoral election?Ends in 7d | No | 33 | 69¢ → 70¢ | $23 | +$0 +1.7% |
| Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 26 | 90¢ → 89¢ | $23 | −$0 −1.5% |
| Will George Harvie win the 2026 Delta mayoral election?Ends in 10h | Yes | 179 | 34¢ → 12¢ | $21 | −$39 −65% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 68 | 35¢ → 31¢ | $21 | −$3 −14% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Ends in 59d | No | 53 | 28¢ → 39¢ | $20 | +$6 +38% |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Ends in 8d | Yes | 54 | 46¢ → 36¢ | $20 | −$5 −22% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?Ends in 17d | Yes | 31 | 59¢ → 61¢ | $19 | +$1 +3.2% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Ends in 17d | No | 498 | 4¢ → 4¢ | $18 | −$3 −15% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.35T by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 329 | 18¢ → 5¢ | $16 | −$43 −72% |
| Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?Ends ended | No | 165 | 31¢ → 10¢ | $16 | −$35 −69% |
| Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027?Ends in 165d | Yes | 52 | 11¢ → 28¢ | $14 | +$9 +148% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 15 | 87¢ → 90¢ | $13 | +$0 +2.9% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Ends ended | No | 17 | 72¢ → 69¢ | $12 | −$1 −5.3% |
| Will Kyle Hamilton win the 2026 Fernie mayoral election?Ends in 10h | Yes | 21 | 34¢ → 48¢ | $10 | +$3 +41% |
| Will Melissa Granum win the 2026 Delta mayoral election?Ends in 10h | No | 12 | 88¢ → 77¢ | $9 | −$1 −13% |
| Will Katie Zacharia give another press briefing as Press Secretary?Ends in 75d | No | 9 | 56¢ → 97¢ | $9 | +$4 +73% |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 8 | 72¢ → 75¢ | $6 | +$0 +4.2% |
| Will Carlos Torres Piña win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?Ends in 232d | No | 8 | 48¢ → 65¢ | $5 | +$1 +35% |
| Will Mustapha Gubio win the 2027 Borno State gubernatorial election?Ends in 112d | No | 29 | 17¢ → 18¢ | $5 | +$0 +2.9% |
| Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Ends in 17d | Yes | 82 | 8¢ → 6¢ | $5 | −$2 −26% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 74 | 13¢ → 7¢ | $5 | −$5 −50% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Ends in 18d | No | 5 | 92¢ → 96¢ | $5 | +$0 +4.4% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Ends in 18d | No | 6 | 80¢ → 80¢ | $5 | −$0 −0.6% |
| Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 5 | 74¢ → 84¢ | $5 | +$1 +13% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 5 | 88¢ → 89¢ | $4 | +$0 +0.6% |
| Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 43d | Yes | 5 | 73¢ → 83¢ | $4 | +$0 +13% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?Ends in 3d | Yes | 11 | 13¢ → 34¢ | $4 | +$2 +165% |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 39 | 6¢ → 6¢ | $2 | −$0 −4.2% |
| Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 37 | 2¢ → 4¢ | $2 | +$1 +86% |
| Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 420 | <1¢ → <1¢ | $1 | −$0 −2.2% |
| US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 1 | 58¢ → 94¢ | $1 | +$0 +62% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?Ends in 440d | Yes | 5 | 24¢ → 23¢ | $1 | −$0 −4.2% |
