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Polymarket · Politics
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | 64% | +2 pts | — | 63¢ · 64¢ (1¢) | $36.5K | in 18d |
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | 32% | 0 pts | — | 32¢ · 32¢ (<1¢) | $32.5K | in 18d |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | 3% | 0 pts | — | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $6.71K | in 18d |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | 2% | 0 pts | — | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $8.31K | in 18d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5h |  MisTKy | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | SellNo36¢ | $1,627 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 6h | MisTKy | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | SellNo67¢ → 68¢ | $6,954 | −$107 −1.5% | — |
| 6h | alex20011 | Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | BuyNo97¢ | $1,059 | +$1 +0.1% | 21 |
| 6h | ZhouCD | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | SellNo68¢ | $4,050 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 6h | C03B | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | BuyYes32¢ | $3,875 | −$9 −0.2% | 34 |
| 6h | ZhouCD | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | SellNo37¢ → 36¢ | $2,214 | +$27 +1.2% | — |
| 6h |  bigdihhh888 | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | BuyYes63¢ → 64¢ | $1,164 | +$11 +0.9% | 23 |
| 6h | C03B | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | BuyYes62¢ → 64¢ | $7,374 | +$125 +1.7% | 36 |
| 3d | laureman2 fills | Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $5,114 | +$39 +0.8% | 22 |
| 3d | laureman2 fills | Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $4,823 | +$45 +0.9% | 22 |
| 4d |  Quandal | Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $3,602 | −$35 −1.0% | — |
| 4d | BunCaCham | Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | SellNo97¢ → 98¢ | $1,172 | −$8 −0.7% | — |
| 4d |  paddaa | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | BuyNo65¢ → 68¢ | $6,000 | +$226 +3.8% | 35 |
| 4d |  chessplayer | Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | SellNo97¢ | $1,264 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
MrMelonHead381 shares
Digital-Boy2,000 sharesMisTKy1,666 shares
Haradwaith1,356 sharesThe rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 64¢ for No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate means the market gives it about 64%.