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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | — | +2 pts | 11¢ · 12¢ (1¢) | $4.56K | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16h | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo88¢ → 89¢ | $2,933 | −$17 −0.6% | — | |
| 3d | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo85¢ → 89¢ | $8,696 | −$411 −4.7% | — | |
| 11d | Worse-Scenario | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo89¢ | $3,444 | +$25 +0.7% | — |
| 11d | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo90¢ → 89¢ | $7,366 | +$162 +2.2% | — | |
| 12d | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo90¢ → 89¢ | $1,800 | −$30 −1.7% | 11 | |
| 13d | KiernanMeister2 fills | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo88¢ → 89¢ | $5,527 | −$21 −0.4% | — |
| 14d | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo89¢ | $1,513 | +$9 +0.6% | — | |
| 14d | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo90¢ → 89¢ | $1,530 | −$26 −1.7% | 11 | |
| 14d | Renan20309 fills | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo88¢ → 89¢ | $22,223 | −$185 −0.8% | — |
| 15d | 6576575711 fills | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo88¢ → 89¢ | $25,727 | −$160 −0.6% | — |
| 19d | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo90¢ → 89¢ | $2,207 | −$45 −2.1% | 10 | |
| 28d | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo88¢ → 89¢ | $1,221 | +$7 +0.6% | 12 | |
| 31d | SuperavitFiscal10 fills | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo86¢ → 89¢ | $22,613 | −$553 −2.4% | — |
| 37d | WarriorH | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo92¢ → 89¢ | $1,409 | −$53 −3.8% | 9 |
| 44d | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo79¢ → 89¢ | $5,944 | +$696 +12% | 18 | |
| 44d | Tend1esAdd1ction2 fills | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo84¢ → 89¢ | $5,078 | −$244 −4.8% | — |
| 45d | CP-directional | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo90¢ → 89¢ | $2,000 | −$33 −1.7% | 11 |
| 46d | SuperavitFiscal9 fills | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo82¢ → 89¢ | $20,040 | +$1,628 +8.1% | 16 |
| 59d | LulaVaiPerder7 fills | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo86¢ → 89¢ | $19,771 | −$481 −2.4% | — |
| 65d | Renan20306 fills | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo79¢ → 89¢ | $18,379 | +$2,257 +12% | 18 |
| 71d | ksiangz974 fills | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo87¢ → 89¢ | $5,370 | −$77 −1.4% | — |
| 75d | LulaVaiPerder7 fills | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo79¢ → 89¢ | $14,739 | +$1,826 +12% | 18 |
| 78d | QMG-CORE | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo86¢ → 89¢ | $1,605 | +$47 +2.9% | 13 |
| 100d | bmm333 | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo89¢ | $1,230 | +$7 +0.6% | — |
| 115d | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyYes18¢ → 12¢ | $1,011 | −$373 −37% | 22 | |
| 115d | Tend1esAdd1ction | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo82¢ → 89¢ | $3,800 | +$276 +7.3% | 16 |
| 122d | Mia1991. | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo77¢ → 89¢ | $4,422 | −$641 −14% | — |
| 127d | Mia1991. | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo81¢ → 89¢ | $3,980 | +$375 +9.4% | 17 |
| 127d | Detailed-Lip | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo75¢ → 89¢ | $3,009 | −$531 −18% | — |
| 132d | 657657576 fills | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo67¢ → 89¢ | $15,172 | +$4,953 +33% | 24 |
| 141d | Firm-Affect | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyYes30¢ → 12¢ | $2,256 | −$1,388 −62% | 27 |
| 144d | bmm333 | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo73¢ → 89¢ | $1,620 | +$342 +21% | 22 |
| 147d | aff3 | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo75¢ → 89¢ | $1,291 | −$232 −18% | — |
| 147d | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo75¢ → 89¢ | $4,731 | −$851 −18% | — | |
| 151d | ksiangz972 fills | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo81¢ → 89¢ | $2,839 | +$282 +9.9% | 17 |
| 153d | aff34 fills | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo80¢ → 89¢ | $16,430 | +$1,639 +10.0% | 17 |
| 153d | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo76¢ → 89¢ | $6,549 | +$1,040 +16% | 20 | |
| 155d | Threadbare-Signal | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyYes26¢ → 12¢ | $1,078 | −$594 −55% | 23 |
| 159d | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo82¢ → 89¢ | $1,040 | −$82 −7.9% | — | |
| 178d | Round-Vacation | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo72¢ → 89¢ | $1,207 | −$272 −23% | — |
| 181d | unsx | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellYes28¢ → 12¢ | $1,043 | +$616 +59% | — |
| 183d | Lubaz | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyYes46¢ → 12¢ | $5,934 | −$4,434 −75% | 26 |
| 203d | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo65¢ → 89¢ | $1,901 | +$687 +36% | 24 | |
| 209d | Honest-Display | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellYes37¢ → 12¢ | $1,101 | +$761 +69% | — |
| 213d | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo56¢ → 89¢ | $1,226 | −$721 −59% | — | |
| 213d | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellYes41¢ → 12¢ | $1,105 | +$795 +72% | — | |
| 213d | Borbor | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SellNo60¢ → 89¢ | $2,333 | −$1,085 −47% | — |
| 215d | StudentMoney | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo67¢ → 89¢ | $1,233 | +$399 +32% | 24 |
| 215d | StudentMoney | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyYes54¢ → 12¢ | $1,087 | −$855 −79% | 23 |
| 215d | rtg003.coin | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyYes30¢ → 12¢ | $2,000 | −$1,223 −61% | 27 |
| 216d | Borbor | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BuyNo73¢ → 89¢ | $2,499 | +$546 +22% | 22 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba. Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 12¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 12%.