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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | — | in 15d |
| December 31 | 18% | −1 pts | −4 pts | 17¢ · 19¢ (2¢) | $24.6 | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23d | Gambol-Riggins4 fills | December 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 82¢ | $4,000 | +$92 +2.3% | 17 |
| 28d | Gambol-Riggins | December 31 | SellNo78¢ → 82¢ | $1,002 | −$51 −5.1% | — |
| 50d |  Bunter.Hiden | December 31 | SellNo75¢ → 82¢ | $1,026 | −$98 −9.5% | — |
| 73d | Pondermint | December 31 | SellYes22¢ → 18¢ | $1,483 | +$270 +18% | — |
| 76d |  Milktoast2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo70¢ → 82¢ | $2,466 | +$430 +17% | 24 |
| 77d |  yen4u2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo71¢ → 82¢ | $5,442 | +$838 +15% | 23 |
| 79d |  fElon | Kash Patel out by August 31? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,212 | +$127 +10% | 4 |
| 83d | Bunter.Hiden | December 31 | BuyNo69¢ → 82¢ | $1,029 | +$201 +20% | 24 |
| 88d |  KnureKnume | December 31 | BuyNo62¢ → 82¢ | $1,234 | +$406 +33% | 24 |
| 89d | Milktoast5 fills | Kash Patel out by July 31? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $8,166 | +$484 +5.9% | 4 |
| 94d |  Sacha1626 | Kash Patel out by July 31? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,344 | −$102 −7.6% | — |
| 95d | fElon | Kash Patel out by July 31? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,191 | −$59 −4.9% | — |
| 97d | Sacha1626 | Kash Patel out by July 31? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,240 | +$105 +8.5% | 4 |
| 97d |  pugdev | December 31 | SellNo41¢ → 82¢ | $2,259 | −$2,239 −99% | — |
| 99d | pugdev2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo64¢ → 82¢ | $3,489 | +$1,009 +29% | 24 |
| 113d |  Everestpredictions | Kash Patel out by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$14 +1.3% | 4 |
| 115d | pugdev2 fills | Kash Patel out by June 30? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $12,807 | −$777 −6.1% | — |
| 116d |  elmcap2 | Kash Patel out by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,234 | +$70 +3.1% | 4 |
| 118d | mm4ker | Kash Patel out by June 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,600 | +$108 +4.2% | 4 |
| 120d | aiwar | Kash Patel out by June 30? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,823 | +$96 +5.3% | 4 |
| 121d | absol | Kash Patel out by June 30? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,060 | +$68 +6.4% | 4 |
| 123d |  TopGod | Kash Patel out by June 30? | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,019 | −$92 −9.1% | — |
| 124d | smartspec1 | December 31 | BuyNo50¢ → 82¢ | $1,027 | +$650 +63% | 24 |
| 124d | smartspec12 fills | Kash Patel out by June 30? | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,051 | −$302 −15% | — |
| 125d | schmoop | Kash Patel out by June 30? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$128 +6.4% | 4 |
| 126d | CountStochasticThePrescient2 fills | Kash Patel out by June 30? | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $2,632 | +$668 +25% | 4 |
| 129d | Milktoast2 fills | Kash Patel out by June 30? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,037 | +$334 +8.3% | 4 |
| 133d | Sacha1626 | Kash Patel out by June 30? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$111 +10% | 4 |
| 136d | pugdev5 fills | Kash Patel out by June 30? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $10,009 | +$1,355 +14% | 4 |
| 137d | notraderr | Kash Patel out by June 30? | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,477 | −$159 −11% | — |
| 138d | fElon | December 31 | BuyYes55¢ → 18¢ | $2,086 | −$1,403 −67% | 24 |
| 141d | aquaticVictory | Kash Patel out by June 30? | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,163 | −$219 −19% | — |
| 146d | mm4ker5 fills | Kash Patel out by May 31? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $10,500 | +$1,116 +11% | 4 |
| 147d | CountStochasticThePrescient | Kash Patel out by May 31? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,598 | −$86 −5.4% | — |
| 150d |  aenews23 fills | Kash Patel out by June 30? | BuyYes33¢ → 0¢ | $5,323 | −$5,323 −100% | 9 |
| 158d | Milktoast | Kash Patel out by May 31? | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,773 | +$315 +18% | 4 |
| 158d |  nolygon | Kash Patel out by May 31? | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,482 | −$302 −20% | — |
| 158d | Frenz55 | Kash Patel out by June 30? | BuyNo61¢ → 100¢ | $1,354 | +$868 +64% | 4 |
| 162d | Memorable-Swanling | Kash Patel out by June 30? | SellNo68¢ → 100¢ | $1,096 | −$504 −46% | — |
| 163d | 333GL | Kash Patel out by June 30? | SellNo71¢ → 100¢ | $1,192 | −$485 −41% | — |
| 164d | iuhgbyuh | December 31 | SellNo35¢ → 82¢ | $1,575 | −$2,115 −134% | — |
| 169d |  f15-SHOTDOWN-againAgainAgain | Kash Patel out by April 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,821 | +$11 +0.1% | 4 |
| 169d | armads | Kash Patel out by April 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,074 | +$3 +0.3% | 4 |
| 170d | 9990999 | Kash Patel out by June 30? | BuyYes39¢ → 0¢ | $1,163 | −$1,163 −100% | 4 |
| 170d |  Parz1vaI | Kash Patel out by June 30? | SellNo64¢ → 100¢ | $1,777 | −$1,014 −57% | — |
| 170d |  kirito00 | Kash Patel out by April 30? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | −$21 −2.0% | — |
| 170d | Adolescent-Serum | Kash Patel out by April 30? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,428 | −$35 −2.5% | — |
| 171d |  iForgor | Kash Patel out by April 30? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,942 | −$58 −3.0% | — |
| 171d | jiyge | Kash Patel out by April 30? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,912 | −$88 −4.6% | — |
| 171d | Pondermint | Kash Patel out by June 30? | SellYes50¢ → 0¢ | $1,921 | +$1,921 +100% | — |
| 171d |  yungstalin | Kash Patel out by June 30? | BuyNo46¢ → 100¢ | $1,136 | +$1,333 +117% | 4 |
| 171d |  RelaySucks | Kash Patel out by April 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,718 | +$72 +4.2% | 5 |
| 171d | KiernanMeister2 fills | Kash Patel out by April 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $11,537 | +$483 +4.2% | 5 |
| 171d |  Snow-White | Kash Patel out by April 30? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $6,976 | +$334 +4.8% | 5 |
| 171d | Snow-White2 fills | Kash Patel out by June 30? | BuyNo39¢ → 100¢ | $2,720 | +$4,332 +159% | 6 |
| 171d | Snow-White | Kash Patel out by May 31? | BuyNo63¢ → 100¢ | $2,170 | +$1,275 +59% | 4 |
| 171d |  DerDon | Kash Patel out by June 30? | BuyNo38¢ → 100¢ | $1,140 | +$1,860 +163% | 4 |
| 171d | iForgor | Kash Patel out by May 31? | BuyNo61¢ → 100¢ | $1,739 | +$1,112 +64% | 4 |
| 171d | methebestss | Kash Patel out by April 30? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,260 | −$64 −5.0% | — |
| 172d | nolygon | Kash Patel out by April 30? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,048 | −$55 −5.3% | — |
Dr.PNL59 sharesfElon346 shares
DirkDiggler67336 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 3¢ for October 31 means the market gives it about 3%.