Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 (50 bps) | 68% | — | −4 pts | 67¢ · 68¢ (1¢) | $1.67K | in 75d |
| 1 (25 bps) | 22% | — | — | 21¢ · 22¢ (1¢) | $2.95K | in 75d |
| 3 (75 bps) | 10% | 0 pts | +2 pts | 10¢ · 10¢ (<1¢) | $2.63K | in 75d |
| 4 (100 bps) | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $1.42K | in 75d |
| 5+ (125+ bps) | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $1.36K | in 75d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d |  LA17 | 3 (75 bps) | SellYes10¢ | $1,061 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 1d | simpleman4 fills | 2 (50 bps) | BuyYes64¢ → 68¢ | $4,800 | +$279 +5.8% | 30 |
| 1d | podairpod | 2 (50 bps) | SellYes66¢ → 68¢ | $1,672 | −$29 −1.7% | — |
| 2d | JonTay | 1 (25 bps) | BuyNo85¢ → 79¢ | $5,673 | −$421 −7.4% | 20 |
| 3d |  debased | 1 (25 bps) | SellYes18¢ → 22¢ | $1,193 | −$232 −19% | — |
| 3d | forgetfuldory2 fills | 1 (25 bps) | BuyNo80¢ → 79¢ | $2,303 | −$43 −1.9% | 23 |
| 8d | gambler9253 fills | 1 (25 bps) | BuyNo75¢ → 79¢ | $4,996 | +$226 +4.5% | 27 |
| 9d | grinder1011 | 1 (25 bps) | SellYes22¢ | $1,108 | +$25 +2.3% | — |
| 11d |  HolyMoses73 fills | 1 (25 bps) | BuyNo81¢ → 79¢ | $4,716 | −$132 −2.8% | 23 |
| 14d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed3 fills | 1 (25 bps) | SellNo84¢ → 79¢ | $3,959 | +$254 +6.4% | — |
| 14d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed3 fills | 1 (25 bps) | BuyNo81¢ → 79¢ | $4,880 | −$170 −3.5% | 22 |
| 14d |  456ythgbvcadscvb | 1 (25 bps) | BuyNo74¢ → 79¢ | $3,023 | +$184 +6.1% | 27 |
| 15d | simpleman2 fills | 1 (25 bps) | SellNo82¢ → 79¢ | $6,616 | +$267 +4.0% | — |
| 16d | 0xe617…f251 | 3 (75 bps) | BuyNo91¢ → 90¢ | $2,000 | −$25 −1.2% | 16 |
| 17d | puravida | 1 (25 bps) | BuyYes15¢ → 22¢ | $2,722 | +$1,179 +43% | 37 |
| 17d | Primary-Reform | 1 (25 bps) | BuyYes15¢ → 22¢ | $1,500 | +$650 +43% | 33 |
| 17d | debased | 1 (25 bps) | BuyYes9¢ → 22¢ | $1,118 | +$1,553 +139% | 31 |
| 21d | weirdmoon3 | 2 (50 bps) | SellNo45¢ → 32¢ | $1,064 | +$303 +28% | — |
| 22d | simpleman2 fills | 1 (25 bps) | BuyNo91¢ → 79¢ | $7,350 | −$1,000 −14% | 16 |
| 23d | Champions26 | 2 (50 bps) | BuyNo53¢ → 32¢ | $1,138 | −$439 −39% | 30 |
| 23d | ethBELIVER2 fills | 3 (75 bps) | BuyYes11¢ → 10¢ | $2,314 | −$159 −6.9% | 36 |
| 24d | TheReturnOfDarthMaul | 1 (25 bps) | BuyNo85¢ → 79¢ | $8,080 | −$618 −7.6% | 20 |
| 24d | WarriorH2 fills | 1 (25 bps) | BuyNo84¢ → 79¢ | $3,441 | −$236 −6.9% | 20 |
| 26d | laureman | 1 (25 bps) | SellNo85¢ → 79¢ | $1,327 | +$101 +7.6% | — |
| 26d | puravida | 1 (25 bps) | SellNo86¢ → 79¢ | $3,952 | +$345 +8.7% | — |
| 26d | simpleman | 1 (25 bps) | SellYes14¢ → 22¢ | $1,465 | −$814 −56% | — |
| 26d | simpleman | 1 (25 bps) | BuyYes15¢ → 22¢ | $1,500 | +$638 +43% | 33 |
| 26d | Elias.Thornwell | 1 (25 bps) | BuyNo85¢ → 79¢ | $1,137 | −$87 −7.6% | 20 |
| 29d | laureman | 1 (25 bps) | BuyNo85¢ → 79¢ | $1,142 | −$87 −7.6% | 20 |
| 29d | puravida | 1 (25 bps) | BuyNo82¢ → 79¢ | $10,290 | −$439 −4.3% | 22 |
| 30d |  x26 | 2 (50 bps) | BuyYes67¢ → 68¢ | $1,095 | +$9 +0.8% | 30 |
| 30d | Beoowww | 2 (50 bps) | BuyYes68¢ | $1,000 | −$0 −0.0% | 30 |
| 30d | Palace8709 | Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,748 | +$7 +0.1% | 10 |
| 34d | Rowdy-Evening-Universe | 3 (75 bps) | BuyNo93¢ → 90¢ | $1,070 | −$42 −4.0% | 14 |
| 37d | 0x5287…3a16 | 1 (25 bps) | SellNo49¢ → 79¢ | $1,472 | −$867 −59% | — |
| 45d | electionplayer | 1 (25 bps) | BuyYes44¢ → 22¢ | $1,500 | −$766 −51% | 30 |
| 46d |  DancewithRisk | 1 (25 bps) | BuyYes45¢ → 22¢ | $1,124 | −$586 −52% | 30 |
| 66d |  yungstalin | Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | BuyYes46¢ → 0¢ | $2,907 | −$2,907 −100% | 11 |
| 66d | weirdmoon3 | 2 (50 bps) | BuyNo85¢ → 32¢ | $2,000 | −$1,239 −62% | 20 |
| 72d | redvinny | 2 (50 bps) | BuyNo82¢ → 32¢ | $1,823 | −$1,099 −60% | 22 |
| 73d | Palace8709 | Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | BuyYes36¢ → 0¢ | $2,377 | −$2,377 −100% | 12 |
| 74d |  Gleaming-Pear | 2 (50 bps) | BuyNo78¢ → 32¢ | $1,170 | −$683 −58% | 25 |
| 101d | yungstalin | Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | BuyNo49¢ → 100¢ | $1,519 | +$1,581 +104% | 10 |
LA178,091 shares
GoldmanSachs6,117 sharesx266,096 shares
Tenebrus71,521 shares
perfectnostalgia1,493 sharesDancewithRisk1,492 sharesThis market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 68¢ for 2 (50 bps) means the market gives it about 68%.