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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 65% | +1 pts | +4 pts | 65¢ · 65¢ (<1¢) | $68.1K | in 76d |
| Lamine Yamal | 27% | −1 pts | −4 pts | 27¢ · 27¢ (<1¢) | $90.8K | in 76d |
| Kylian Mbappé | 4% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 4¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | $70.5K | in 76d |
| Lionel Messi | 3% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $69.1K | in 76d |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | <1% | 0 pts | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $67.4K | in 76d |
| Rodri | <1% | 0 pts | −1 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $44.4K | in 76d |
| Ousmane Dembélé | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $94.9K | in 76d |
| Michael Olise | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $25.6K | in 76d |
| Erling Haaland | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $27.1K | in 76d |
| Fabian Ruiz | <1% | 0 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $29.8K | in 13d |
| Jude Bellingham | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $0.01 | in 76d |
| Vinícius Júnior | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $0.01 | in 13d |
| Declan Rice | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $0.01 | in 13d |
| Vitinha | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $0.01 | in 76d |
| Achraf Hakimi | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $0.01 | in 13d |
| Bruno Fernandes | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $0.01 | in 76d |
| Luis Diaz | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $0.01 | in 13d |
| Lautaro Martinez | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $0.01 | in 13d |
| Pau Cubarsi | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $0.01 | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12m | Lordpengu22 fills | Harry Kane | BuyYes63¢ → 65¢ | $33,737 | +$849 +2.5% | 24 |
| 53m | ballavita4 fills | Harry Kane | BuyYes65¢ | $7,504 | −$68 −0.9% | 13 |
| 10h | nonkenny903 fills | Lionel Messi | BuyNo97¢ | $5,643 | −$32 −0.6% | 5 |
| 10h |  Parz1vaI3 fills | Lamine Yamal | SellYes29¢ → 27¢ | $11,542 | +$802 +7.0% | — |
| 11h | Marcosbl8n | Lamine Yamal | BuyYes28¢ → 27¢ | $1,386 | −$18 −1.3% | 5 |
| 11h | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed4 fills | Lamine Yamal | SellNo65¢ → 73¢ | $4,915 | −$563 −11% | — |
| 13h |  arjennnnn | Harry Kane | SellYes64¢ → 65¢ | $3,216 | −$27 −0.8% | — |
| 15h |  bisouss18 fills | Harry Kane | BuyYes55¢ → 65¢ | $35,295 | +$6,385 +18% | 24 |
| 18h | Tremirorot | Harry Kane | BuyYes64¢ → 65¢ | $1,042 | +$7 +0.7% | 5 |
| 21h | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed6 fills | Lamine Yamal | BuyNo71¢ → 73¢ | $8,518 | +$175 +2.1% | 11 |
| 1d | Lexington2 fills | Kylian Mbappé | BuyNo96¢ | $3,189 | −$12 −0.4% | 4 |
| 1d | spa-ced | Lamine Yamal | BuyYes30¢ → 27¢ | $1,000 | −$80 −8.0% | 5 |
| 1d |  DerDon2 fills | Lionel Messi | SellNo97¢ | $6,799 | +$26 +0.4% | — |
| 1d | privateaccount | Lionel Messi | BuyNo97¢ | $1,613 | −$9 −0.6% | 4 |
| 1d | hfv | Harry Kane | BuyYes65¢ | $3,274 | −$22 −0.7% | 8 |
| 1d | hfv | Lamine Yamal | BuyNo73¢ | $2,381 | −$1 −0.1% | 6 |
| 1d | Thoughtful-Uniform | Lamine Yamal | SellYes28¢ → 27¢ | $2,488 | +$62 +2.5% | — |
| 1d |  Outsid3rTrading | Lamine Yamal | SellYes28¢ → 27¢ | $1,400 | +$33 +2.3% | — |
| 1d |  gmgmgmgmg7 fills | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,217 | −$3 −0.0% | 4 |
| 1d | gmgmgmgmg6 fills | Rodri | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $7,009 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 1d | e46m311 fills | Erling Haaland | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,187 | −$7 −0.1% | 4 |
| 1d |  JustClickeverywhere7 fills | Ousmane Dembélé | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,233 | −$3 −0.0% | 4 |
| 1d | e46m310 fills | Michael Olise | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,824 | −$4 −0.0% | 4 |
| 1d | JustClickeverywhere5 fills | Fabian Ruiz | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,843 | −$2 −0.0% | 4 |
| 1d | e46m37 fills | Lionel Messi | BuyNo97¢ | $8,031 | −$49 −0.6% | 5 |
| 1d | gmgmgmgmg8 fills | Kylian Mbappé | BuyNo96¢ | $9,155 | −$21 −0.2% | 5 |
| 1d | gmgmgmgmg7 fills | Ousmane Dembélé | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,380 | −$1 −0.0% | 4 |
| 1d | JustClickeverywhere3 fills | Lionel Messi | BuyNo97¢ | $3,506 | −$23 −0.7% | 4 |
| 1d | gmgmgmgmg6 fills | Fabian Ruiz | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,193 | −$4 −0.1% | 4 |
| 1d | e46m35 fills | Kylian Mbappé | BuyNo97¢ → 96¢ | $5,672 | −$59 −1.0% | 5 |
| 1d | JustClickeverywhere7 fills | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $8,269 | +$13 +0.2% | 4 |
| 1d | JustClickeverywhere7 fills | Rodri | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $8,336 | +$26 +0.3% | 4 |
| 1d | gmgmgmgmg3 fills | Michael Olise | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,593 | −$2 −0.1% | 4 |
| 1d | e46m34 fills | Fabian Ruiz | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,795 | −$2 −0.1% | 4 |
| 1d | gmgmgmgmg5 fills | Lionel Messi | BuyNo97¢ | $5,726 | +$0 +0.0% | 5 |
| 1d | JustClickeverywhere3 fills | Kylian Mbappé | BuyNo97¢ → 96¢ | $3,488 | −$34 −1.0% | 4 |
| 1d | Heler-095 | Lamine Yamal | SellYes28¢ → 27¢ | $1,610 | +$19 +1.2% | — |
| 1d | Parz1vaI | Lionel Messi | SellNo97¢ | $1,446 | +$10 +0.7% | — |
| 1d |  BigMaccyG3 fills | Lamine Yamal | BuyYes37¢ → 27¢ | $8,526 | −$2,149 −25% | 12 |
| 1d | 0xdb21…ddb1 | Kylian Mbappé | BuyYes4¢ | $1,330 | +$35 +2.6% | 6 |
| 1d |  ErnstKuzorra | Lionel Messi | SellNo97¢ | $3,048 | +$20 +0.7% | — |
| 1d | vit2366 fills | Lamine Yamal | BuyYes33¢ → 27¢ | $13,471 | −$2,426 −18% | 16 |
| 1d | tobetornottobet | Lamine Yamal | BuyYes28¢ → 27¢ | $1,268 | −$18 −1.4% | 5 |
| 2d | oral.kite5633 | Lamine Yamal | SellYes30¢ → 27¢ | $1,663 | +$121 +7.3% | — |
| 2d | LuchoTrader | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,510 | −$1 −0.1% | 4 |
| 2d | agagyu3 fills | Lionel Messi | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $4,054 | +$20 +0.5% | 5 |
| 3d | schizohedgehog2 fills | Lionel Messi | BuyNo97¢ | $28,141 | −$31 −0.1% | 6 |
| 3d | leegunner | Harry Kane | BuyNo38¢ → 35¢ | $1,451 | −$123 −8.5% | 6 |
| 3d | yohan75 | Lamine Yamal | SellYes29¢ → 27¢ | $1,236 | +$83 +6.7% | — |
| 3d | koriander | Kylian Mbappé | SellNo96¢ | $12,305 | +$31 +0.3% | — |
| 3d | JustClickeverywhere3 fills | Erling Haaland | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,447 | −$2 −0.1% | 4 |
| 3d | Chonchitoooo2 fills | Lamine Yamal | BuyNo70¢ → 73¢ | $3,455 | +$142 +4.1% | 7 |
| 3d | thoodr5 fills | Lionel Messi | BuyNo97¢ | $10,797 | −$50 −0.5% | 5 |
| 3d | thoodr7 fills | Kylian Mbappé | BuyNo97¢ → 96¢ | $24,381 | −$321 −1.3% | 6 |
| 4d | alien7349 | Lionel Messi | SellNo97¢ | $1,986 | +$4 +0.2% | — |
| 4d | neutralwave23 | Lamine Yamal | BuyYes31¢ → 27¢ | $1,116 | −$131 −12% | 5 |
| 4d | Zoomman17 | Harry Kane | SellYes65¢ | $2,112 | +$8 +0.4% | — |
| 4d | GOALMACHINEKANE | Harry Kane | SellYes65¢ | $1,296 | +$12 +0.9% | — |
| 4d | camb-2 fills | Harry Kane | BuyNo37¢ → 35¢ | $2,999 | −$152 −5.1% | 8 |
| 4d | 0x86544e4dfde5 fills | Harry Kane | BuyYes66¢ → 65¢ | $21,457 | −$363 −1.7% | 24 |
bisouss148,651 shares
de5nuts20,197 sharesThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 65¢ for Harry Kane means the market gives it about 65%.