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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 4% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | $356 | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d | December 31 | SellNo96¢ | $2,416 | +$9 +0.4% | — | |
| 48d | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,010 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 51d | Kevindoto | December 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 96¢ | $2,249 | +$22 +1.0% | 7 |
| 68d | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,189 | −$47 −1.5% | — | |
| 74d | thoodr2 fills | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,087 | +$47 +1.5% | 4 |
| 78d | December 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 96¢ | $1,820 | +$99 +5.4% | 10 | |
| 79d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,773 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 | |
| 81d | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,773 | +$112 +1.9% | 4 | |
| 82d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,515 | −$9 −0.6% | — | |
| 82d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 4 | |
| 83d | Newshound | December 31 | SellNo90¢ → 96¢ | $5,564 | −$363 −6.5% | — |
| 87d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,642 | −$46 −0.8% | — | |
| 87d | enrico-vasaio2 fills | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,387 | +$31 +0.9% | 4 |
| 89d | 0x1fd0…c6a7 | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,101 | +$6 +0.5% | 4 |
| 89d | QMG-CORE2 fills | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,870 | +$130 +2.7% | 4 |
| 89d | QMG-CORE2 fills | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,339 | +$32 +0.9% | 4 |
| 90d | hideo | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,529 | +$17 +1.1% | 4 |
| 90d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,279 | −$40 −1.2% | — | |
| 90d | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $7,699 | +$395 +5.1% | 4 | |
| 90d | December 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 96¢ | $1,738 | +$75 +4.3% | 9 | |
| 91d | countbinface33 | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,021 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 91d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,643 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 91d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,992 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 91d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,241 | −$2 −0.2% | — | |
| 92d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,113 | −$10 −0.5% | — | |
| 93d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,213 | +$6 +0.2% | 4 | |
| 93d | alwaysOn | December 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 96¢ | $1,309 | +$71 +5.4% | 10 |
| 93d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,122 | +$100 +2.4% | 4 | |
| 93d | Noname333 | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,213 | −$48 −4.0% | — |
| 94d | peter1123 | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,584 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 94d | 881112 | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,147 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 94d | Paul973973 | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$31 +2.0% | 4 |
| 94d | Shadursky | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,358 | +$31 +2.2% | 4 |
| 94d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed3 fills | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $4,706 | +$294 +6.2% | 4 |
| 94d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | December 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 96¢ | $2,275 | +$124 +5.4% | 10 |
| 94d | Kevindoto | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $27,131 | +$639 +2.4% | 4 |
| 94d | conotocaurius | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $4,195 | −$300 −7.2% | — |
| 94d | conotocaurius | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,306 | −$102 −3.1% | — |
| 94d | third-eye2 fills | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,324 | +$30 +0.9% | 4 |
| 94d | Paul973973 | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$14 +0.7% | 4 |
| 94d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,924 | +$33 +0.8% | 4 | |
| 94d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $13,859 | +$126 +0.9% | 4 | |
| 94d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $11,894 | +$396 +3.3% | 4 | |
| 94d | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,841 | +$216 +7.6% | 4 | |
| 94d | Noname333 | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,170 | +$91 +7.7% | 4 |
| 94d | Eatpraylove | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,791 | +$24 +1.4% | 4 |
| 94d | controls | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$86 +4.3% | 4 |
| 94d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $8,210 | −$236 −2.9% | — | |
| 95d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,038 | +$24 +2.4% | 4 | |
| 95d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed3 fills | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,288 | −$85 −2.6% | — |
| 95d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,658 | +$292 +5.2% | 4 | |
| 95d | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $4,180 | +$408 +9.8% | 4 | |
| 95d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,130 | +$61 +5.4% | 4 | |
| 95d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,112 | +$90 +2.9% | 4 | |
| 95d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,431 | −$92 −6.4% | — | |
| 95d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,077 | −$80 −7.4% | — |
| 95d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,069 | −$54 −5.0% | — | |
| 95d | Newshound | December 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 96¢ | $5,786 | +$141 +2.4% | 8 |
| 95d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $40,877 | +$1,879 +4.6% | 4 | |
| 95d | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,049 | +$73 +3.6% | 4 |
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement. The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 4¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 4%.