| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d | Yes | 11,063 | 71¢ → 87¢ | $9,570 | +$1,668 +21% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 36,890 | 55¢ → 12¢ | $4,242 | −$16,155 −79% |
| US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 3,650 | 77¢ → 94¢ | $3,440 | +$642 +23% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ends ended | Yes | 6,072 | 38¢ → 54¢ | $3,252 | +$947 +41% |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 183d | Yes | 3,262 | 31¢ → 46¢ | $1,515 | +$507 +50% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Ends in 79d | No | 3,057 | 49¢ → 43¢ | $1,299 | −$193 −13% |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 182d | Yes | 1,478 | 83¢ → 86¢ | $1,264 | +$33 +2.7% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?Ends in 14d | Yes | 1,149 | 51¢ → 87¢ | $994 | +$403 +68% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Ends in 79d | No | 1,168 | 55¢ → 77¢ | $893 | +$251 +39% |
| Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 1,382 | 53¢ → 63¢ | $871 | +$138 +19% |
| Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 814 | 74¢ → 91¢ | $740 | +$138 +23% |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 1,000 | 63¢ → 60¢ | $595 | −$31 −5.0% |
| Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 622 | 70¢ → 90¢ | $557 | +$119 +27% |
| Will France pass a national budget by December 31?Ends in 74d | Yes | 943 | 40¢ → 57¢ | $537 | +$157 +41% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 8,814 | 47¢ → 6¢ | $529 | −$3,618 −87% |
| Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 991 | 38¢ → 46¢ | $456 | +$78 +21% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 539 | 86¢ → 77¢ | $413 | −$51 −11% |
| Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 183d | Yes | 59,537 | <1¢ → 1¢ | $387 | +$149 +63% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 2,000 | 43¢ → 19¢ | $380 | −$480 −56% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,000 | 54¢ → 34¢ | $341 | −$202 −37% |
| JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 347 | 80¢ → 97¢ | $338 | +$61 +22% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 3,552 | 28¢ → 9¢ | $320 | −$688 −68% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 500 | 50¢ → 63¢ | $313 | +$63 +25% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 300 | 70¢ → 85¢ | $254 | +$44 +21% |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 300 | 65¢ → 74¢ | $221 | +$26 +13% |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 17d | Yes | 2,198 | 22¢ → 10¢ | $209 | −$275 −57% |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 620 | 32¢ → 34¢ | $208 | +$12 +6.1% |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 300 | 49¢ → 66¢ | $198 | +$51 +34% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 200 | 85¢ → 97¢ | $195 | +$26 +15% |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?Ends in 75d | No | 203 | 60¢ → 89¢ | $179 | +$58 +47% |
| Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 193 | 77¢ → 90¢ | $174 | +$25 +17% |
| No one announced as next James Bond?Ends in 75d | No | 250 | 74¢ → 67¢ | $167 | −$17 −9.4% |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,410 | 55¢ → 12¢ | $162 | −$610 −79% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 852 | 40¢ → 19¢ | $158 | −$181 −53% |
| Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,279 | 19¢ → 7¢ | $157 | −$286 −65% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,718 | 25¢ → 9¢ | $155 | −$267 −63% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,507 | 29¢ → 6¢ | $138 | −$590 −81% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Ends in 44d | Yes | 626 | 35¢ → 22¢ | $138 | −$81 −37% |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Ends in 75d | Yes | 400 | 40¢ → 33¢ | $132 | −$27 −17% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 752d | Yes | 1,000 | 5¢ → 13¢ | $132 | +$80 +153% |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 130 | 76¢ → 96¢ | $124 | +$26 +26% |
| Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 163 | 68¢ → 73¢ | $118 | +$7 +6.6% |
| Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 970 | 11¢ → 12¢ | $117 | +$10 +9.5% |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 300 | 29¢ → 37¢ | $110 | +$23 +26% |
| US congress stock trading ban before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,925 | 24¢ → 5¢ | $102 | −$360 −78% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 425 | 15¢ → 24¢ | $100 | +$34 +52% |
| New pandemic in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 100 | 84¢ → 96¢ | $96 | +$12 +14% |
| Will the IEA ask France to release oil stocks by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 358 | 72¢ → 27¢ | $95 | −$161 −63% |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 100 | 79¢ → 94¢ | $94 | +$15 +18% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,019 | 29¢ → 9¢ | $92 | −$199 −68% |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 350 | 36¢ → 25¢ | $88 | −$40 −31% |
| Will Édouard Philippe, but not Gabriel Attal, be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 182d | Yes | 109 | 76¢ → 78¢ | $85 | +$2 +2.6% |
| Will the IEA ask France to release oil stocks by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 110 | 74¢ → 74¢ | $81 | −$0 −0.1% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,343 | 18¢ → 6¢ | $81 | −$161 −67% |
| Will the IEA ask France to release oil stocks by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 121 | 54¢ → 60¢ | $73 | +$8 +12% |
| Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 267 | 26¢ → 25¢ | $66 | −$4 −5.2% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 342 | 24¢ → 15¢ | $51 | −$31 −38% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?Ends in 17d | Yes | 200 | 27¢ → 26¢ | $51 | −$3 −5.6% |
| SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 55 | 45¢ → 91¢ | $50 | +$25 +103% |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 140 | 57¢ → 35¢ | $49 | −$30 −38% |
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 500 | 50¢ → 10¢ | $47 | −$200 −81% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 200 | 40¢ → 24¢ | $47 | −$33 −41% |
| Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 300 | 20¢ → 16¢ | $47 | −$14 −23% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Ends in 13d | Yes | 918 | 49¢ → 5¢ | $41 | −$406 −91% |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 200 | 21¢ → 20¢ | $40 | −$3 −7.0% |
| Will no one dissent the January Fed decision?Ends in 102d | No | 80 | 63¢ → 45¢ | $36 | −$15 −30% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?Ends in 74d | Yes | 1,610 | 9¢ → 2¢ | $35 | −$110 −76% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 200 | 11¢ → 17¢ | $33 | +$11 +48% |
| US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 340 | 19¢ → 10¢ | $32 | −$33 −51% |
| Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by March 31, 2027?Ends in 165d | No | 33 | 85¢ → 94¢ | $31 | +$3 +11% |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 315 | 10¢ → 10¢ | $30 | −$2 −5.0% |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 649 | 14¢ → 5¢ | $29 | −$62 −68% |
| Will Hendrik Wüst be the next Chancellor of Germany?Ends in 1171d | Yes | 200 | 15¢ → 14¢ | $27 | −$3 −10% |
| Trump out as President before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 620 | 16¢ → 4¢ | $24 | −$75 −75% |
| Putin visits US by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 200 | 8¢ → 12¢ | $23 | +$7 +44% |
| Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 500 | 9¢ → 5¢ | $23 | −$23 −50% |
| Trump Admin held in contempt over press ban by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 100 | 12¢ → 21¢ | $21 | +$9 +75% |
| Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?Ends in 440d | Yes | 105 | 20¢ → 18¢ | $18 | −$3 −12% |
| Will a UK social media ban take effect by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 145 | 15¢ → 13¢ | $18 | −$4 −17% |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 182d | Yes | 1,000 | 2¢ → 1¢ | $14 | −$5 −27% |
| Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 201 | 10¢ → 7¢ | $14 | −$6 −30% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseEnds in 17d | Yes | 1,475 | 4¢ → 1¢ | $14 | −$51 −78% |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 300 | 17¢ → 4¢ | $13 | −$38 −74% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 1,757 | 9¢ → 1¢ | $13 | −$145 −92% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 100 | 61¢ → 8¢ | $8 | −$54 −88% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Ends in 78d | Yes | 112 | 51¢ → 7¢ | $7 | −$50 −87% |
| Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 7 | 60¢ → 88¢ | $6 | +$2 +49% |
| US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 100 | 24¢ → 5¢ | $5 | −$19 −78% |
| Bank of England rate hike in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 270 | 56¢ → 2¢ | $5 | −$145 −97% |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?Ends in 75d | Yes | 43 | 20¢ → 11¢ | $5 | −$4 −48% |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 100 | 53¢ → 4¢ | $4 | −$49 −93% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 300 | 4¢ → 1¢ | $2 | −$11 −86% |
| Will Doug Burgum be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 25 | 1¢ → 1¢ | $0 | +$0 +21% |
| Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 225 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 876 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$29 −100% |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 536 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$72 −100% |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 300 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$36 −100% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 467 | 33¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$154 −100% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,003 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$385 −100% |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 55 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$17 −100% |
