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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Gallrein | 100% | +40 pts | +67 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Thomas Massie | 0% | −39 pts | −66 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Nicole Lee Ethington | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Robert Wells Jr. | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Candidate A | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate K | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate L | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate M | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate N | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate O | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 150d | kangkang123 | Ed Gallrein | SellYes>99¢ | $4,816 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 150d |  QuteAnon | Ed Gallrein | SellYes>99¢ | $1,598 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 150d | manxia | Ed Gallrein | SellYes>99¢ | $1,658 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 150d | Athletic-Manager | Thomas Massie | SellNo>99¢ | $1,704 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 150d |  WarriorPooh | Ed Gallrein | SellYes>99¢ | $6,667 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 150d | Tragic-Wall | Thomas Massie | SellNo>99¢ | $64,935 | −$65 −0.1% | — |
| 150d | Tragic-Wall | Ed Gallrein | SellYes>99¢ | $4,864 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 150d |  RealWigger | Ed Gallrein | SellYes>99¢ | $1,135 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 150d | initial33 | Ed Gallrein | SellYes>99¢ | $4,061 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 150d | Slider264 fills | Thomas Massie | SellNo81¢ → 100¢ | $7,700 | −$1,757 −23% | — |
| 150d | flawfence | Ed Gallrein | SellYes>99¢ | $13,804 | −$14 −0.1% | — |
| 150d | WendyzNutz | Ed Gallrein | SellYes>99¢ | $10,636 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 150d | OPTIONSKING | Ed Gallrein | SellYes>99¢ | $3,407 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 150d | 369-369 | Ed Gallrein | SellYes>99¢ | $11,375 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 150d | GirlwithAPearlEarring2 fills | Thomas Massie | BuyNo>99¢ | $132,708 | +$184 +0.1% | 10 |
| 150d | GirlwithAPearlEarring2 fills | Ed Gallrein | BuyYes>99¢ | $251,182 | +$440 +0.2% | 10 |
| 150d | 65765757 | Thomas Massie | SellNo>99¢ | $10,155 | −$49 −0.5% | — |
| 150d |  Gleaming-Pear | Thomas Massie | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,671 | +$17 +0.3% | 10 |
| 150d | pi. | Ed Gallrein | SellYes100¢ | $1,493 | −$8 −0.5% | — |
| 150d |  HorribleWork | Ed Gallrein | BuyYes>99¢ | $20,633 | +$83 +0.4% | 10 |
| 150d | randomlypunting | Ed Gallrein | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,500 | +$6 +0.4% | 10 |
| 150d |  MrMelonHead | Ed Gallrein | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,113 | −$9 −0.8% | — |
| 150d |  shtanga0x-x | Ed Gallrein | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,456 | +$31 +0.9% | 10 |
| 150d |  WordleAddict3 fills | Thomas Massie | BuyNo62¢ → 100¢ | $12,565 | +$7,711 +61% | 10 |
| 150d | lomneivan2 fills | Ed Gallrein | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $4,600 | +$317 +6.9% | 10 |
| 150d | 65765757 | Ed Gallrein | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,063 | −$29 −1.4% | — |
| 150d | VvVvV | Ed Gallrein | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,720 | −$24 −1.4% | — |
| 150d |  Rick-Ross | Ed Gallrein | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,803 | −$26 −1.4% | — |
| 150d | Tradesama3 fills | Ed Gallrein | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,931 | +$52 +1.1% | 10 |
| 150d | BetYourWifeIfUNeedTo | Ed Gallrein | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,555 | −$24 −1.5% | — |
| 150d |  BeneGesseritVoice | Thomas Massie | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,030 | +$66 +0.7% | 10 |
| 150d | Yalokin | Ed Gallrein | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,436 | −$78 −1.2% | — |
| 150d | Yalokin | Thomas Massie | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,431 | −$126 −2.0% | — |
| 150d |  Cungly | Ed Gallrein | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,545 | +$17 +1.1% | 10 |
| 150d | Sayl7Seas | Ed Gallrein | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,168 | −$43 −2.0% | — |
| 150d | chiefriverboat | Ed Gallrein | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $6,113 | −$271 −4.4% | — |
| 150d |  DuneMentat | Thomas Massie | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,920 | +$80 +4.2% | 10 |
| 150d | operationcastle | Ed Gallrein | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,208 | +$92 +7.6% | 10 |
| 150d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C295 fills | Thomas Massie | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $15,000 | +$1,747 +12% | 10 |
| 150d |  monleru | Ed Gallrein | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$180 +9.0% | 10 |
| 150d | Railcool3 fills | Thomas Massie | BuyNo67¢ → 100¢ | $5,092 | +$2,553 +50% | 18 |
| 150d | 657657572 fills | Thomas Massie | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $3,053 | +$377 +12% | 10 |
| 150d |  andy29 | Thomas Massie | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,278 | +$191 +15% | 10 |
| 150d | mm4ker3 fills | Thomas Massie | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$2,312 +23% | 10 |
| 150d | Tradesama | Thomas Massie | BuyYes17¢ → 0¢ | $1,012 | −$1,012 −100% | 10 |
| 150d |  Specksalam | Ed Gallrein | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,091 | −$161 −15% | — |
| 150d | Railcool | Ed Gallrein | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,118 | +$161 +14% | 10 |
| 150d |  bernardbulletin2 fills | Thomas Massie | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $12,505 | −$1,705 −14% | — |
| 150d | Loyalty-Crash2 fills | Ed Gallrein | BuyNo12¢ → 0¢ | $3,621 | −$3,621 −100% | 19 |
| 150d | Specksalam | Ed Gallrein | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$152 +14% | 10 |
| 150d | neutralwave232 fills | Thomas Massie | BuyYes14¢ → 0¢ | $2,850 | −$2,850 −100% | 17 |
| 150d |  Semen-Demon | Thomas Massie | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,750 | −$228 −13% | — |
| 150d | 246456546gdfgtg2 fills | Ed Gallrein | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $4,978 | +$620 +12% | 10 |
| 150d | charkan | Thomas Massie | BuyYes12¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 10 |
| 150d | lomneivan2 fills | Thomas Massie | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $3,037 | +$816 +27% | 10 |
| 150d |  Mr-Krabs | Thomas Massie | BuyNo65¢ → 100¢ | $4,064 | +$2,211 +54% | 10 |
| 150d | wan1239 fills | Thomas Massie | BuyNo41¢ → 100¢ | $39,196 | +$57,198 +146% | 17 |
| 150d |  Kettle | Ed Gallrein | BuyYes62¢ → 100¢ | $2,076 | +$1,277 +62% | 10 |
| 150d | OPTIONSKING | Ed Gallrein | BuyYes63¢ → 100¢ | $1,887 | +$1,113 +59% | 10 |
| 150d | Willing-Tuneup | Ed Gallrein | BuyNo38¢ → 0¢ | $1,378 | −$1,378 −100% | 11 |
HorribleWork35,616 shares
DOLLAR-PRINTER24,819 shares
KnureKnume17,957 sharesThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Ed Gallrein means the market gives it about 100%.