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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 2% | 0 pts | −5 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16d | thoodr | December 31 | BuyNo88¢ → 98¢ | $1,645 | +$180 +11% | 20 |
| 43d |  dooby | December 31 | SellNo87¢ → 98¢ | $1,112 | −$135 −12% | — |
| 144d |  Arlette | December 31 | SellNo70¢ → 98¢ | $1,422 | −$572 −40% | — |
| 156d | 0x2ad6…5d7a5 fills | December 31 | BuyNo82¢ → 98¢ | $11,840 | +$2,185 +18% | 20 |
| 156d | 0x2ad6…5d7a3 fills | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 98¢ | $6,908 | −$1,215 −18% | — |
| 156d | 0xcf85…d7156 fills | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 98¢ | $12,674 | −$2,229 −18% | — |
| 156d | 0xcf85…d7156 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 98¢ | $12,674 | +$2,229 +18% | 20 |
| 156d | 0x6c8a…09be6 fills | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 98¢ | $13,600 | −$2,392 −18% | — |
| 156d | 0x6c8a…09be6 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 98¢ | $13,600 | +$2,392 +18% | 20 |
| 156d | 0x53dd…910a6 fills | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 98¢ | $13,715 | −$2,413 −18% | — |
| 156d | 0x53dd…910a5 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 98¢ | $11,429 | +$2,010 +18% | 20 |
| 156d | 0x1020…ff082 fills | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 98¢ | $5,026 | −$884 −18% | — |
| 156d | 0x1020…ff082 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 98¢ | $5,026 | +$884 +18% | 20 |
| 156d | 0x660a…bebf | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 98¢ | $2,075 | +$365 +18% | 20 |
| 236d | dooby | December 31 | BuyNo86¢ → 98¢ | $1,115 | +$150 +13% | 20 |
| 259d | ForFamily | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,809 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 260d | QMG-SCALAR3 fills | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,037 | +$27 +0.3% | 20 |
| 261d | SPINUP | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,265 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 261d | QMG-CORE5 fills | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,990 | +$80 +0.5% | 20 |
| 263d |  Magic-Mushroom-Predicting | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | SellNo100¢ | $1,943 | −$10 −0.5% | — |
| 263d |  NoClueAtAll | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | SellNo100¢ | $1,167 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 264d |  Goopster | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo100¢ | $8,672 | +$44 +0.5% | 20 |
| 266d | Dit26978 | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,134 | −$10 −0.9% | — |
| 273d | Magic-Mushroom-Predicting | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,165 | +$42 +1.0% | 20 |
| 273d | Arlette | December 31 | BuyNo74¢ → 98¢ | $1,333 | +$424 +32% | 20 |
| 273d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | December 31 | BuyNo68¢ → 98¢ | $1,413 | +$615 +44% | 20 |
| 273d |  KingZeManel2 fills | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,257 | +$76 +1.2% | 20 |
| 276d | NoClueAtAll | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,153 | +$20 +1.7% | 20 |
| 277d | dooby4 fills | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $21,199 | +$313 +1.5% | 20 |
| 277d | dooby | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,433 | −$67 −1.5% | — |
| 277d |  NotTheBadWolf | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,940 | +$60 +1.2% | 20 |
| 278d |  zthunderfury | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,041 | +$26 +1.3% | 20 |
| 278d | Arlette2 fills | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,119 | +$120 +1.3% | 20 |
| 280d |  lmtfalone2 fills | December 31 | SellNo65¢ → 98¢ | $3,284 | −$1,679 −51% | — |
| 280d | lmtfalone | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,582 | −$66 −1.8% | — |
| 280d | Pleasing-DebrisNew account | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,811 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 280d | Flancho | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,024 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 281d | NotTheBadWolf | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,722 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 281d | aviato2 fills | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $18,400 | −$18 −0.1% | — |
| 281d | Huludubu3 fills | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,482 | −$127 −1.7% | — |
| 281d | Huludubu2 fills | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $7,124 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 281d | aviato2 fills | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $31,133 | +$34 +0.1% | 20 |
| 281d | hitjnn214 | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $7,311 | −$22 −0.3% | — |
| 281d | QMG-CORE2 fills | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,404 | +$89 +2.0% | 20 |
| 281d | fedecencicrypto | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,841 | −$9 −0.3% | — |
| 281d |  Mr.Predictions2 fills | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,840 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 282d | Arlette4 fills | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,512 | +$31 +0.1% | 20 |
| 282d | dooby | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,981 | +$27 +0.3% | 20 |
| 282d |  Cheddar-Factory | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,806 | +$48 +2.7% | 20 |
| 282d | Mr.Predictions | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,910 | −$10 −0.5% | — |
| 282d |  willis1111 | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | SellNo100¢ | $1,039 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 283d | ForFamily2 fills | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,845 | +$31 +0.3% | 20 |
| 283d |  TylerTurden | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,102 | −$63 −3.0% | — |
| 283d |  Mr-Krabs | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | SellNo100¢ | $2,963 | −$15 −0.5% | — |
| 283d | esac | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | +$24 +2.2% | 20 |
| 284d | pako | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | BuyNo100¢ | $6,086 | +$31 +0.5% | 20 |
| 284d | Thin-Print | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,934 | −$8 −0.4% | — |
| 284d | lmtfalone2 fills | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,454 | +$395 +8.9% | 20 |
| 284d | Laurenman | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,719 | +$11 +0.4% | 20 |
| 285d | willis1111 | Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,028 | +$17 +1.6% | 20 |
RealRonnieTyler309 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Cilia Flores is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Cilia Flores is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Cilia Flores is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Cilia Flores to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 2¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 2%.
