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Polymarket wallet 0x717a8b61716626a8f829bc4a7da122244ed1977c · on Polymarket since Jan 14, 2026 · also shown as Third-Manufacturing
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,481 | 23¢ → 6¢ | $136 | −$442 −76% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,595 | 28¢ → 5¢ | $76 | −$377 −83% |
| Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 613 | 19¢ → 4¢ | $27 | −$89 −76% |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 373 | 18¢ → 5¢ | $17 | −$49 −74% |
| Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 537 | 20¢ → 2¢ | $13 | −$93 −88% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,226 | 3¢ → <1¢ | $4 | −$35 −91% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 583 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$140 −100% |
| Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 274 | 27¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$74 −100% |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 15 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.