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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 31 | 0% | −5 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| February 28 | 100% | −3 pts | −18 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 74d |
| February 15 | 0% | −1 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| March 31 | 100% | −5 pts | −3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 74d |
| January 12 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · 1¢ | — | in 74d |
| June 30 | 100% | −3 pts | −3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 74d |
| December 31 | 100% | −2 pts | −4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 74d |
| January 11 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| January 10 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| January 9 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| January 8 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| January 16 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 74d |
| January 17 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 74d |
| January 18 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 74d |
| January 19 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 74d |
| January 20 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 74d |
| January 21 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 74d |
| January 22 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 74d |
| January 23 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 74d |
| January 24 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 74d |
| January 25 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 74d |
| January 26 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 74d |
| January 27 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 74d |
| January 28 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 74d |
| January 29 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 74d |
| January 30 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 74d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 231d | WHATSUPPPP | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,022 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | BobTheBuilderer | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $13,337 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Eitam | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,201 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Cmarin | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,289 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Grumpy-Recreation | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,306 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  llzl9d9ujfurhuer34 fills | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $30,700 | −$31 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  Saba2117 | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,257 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  eldestboy2 fills | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,274 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | BwTrump2 fills | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $19,104 | −$19 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | eldestboy2 fills | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,904 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Zizibazizi23 | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,984 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Superb-Chops2 fills | February 28 | SellYes38¢ → 100¢ | $3,598 | −$5,754 −160% | — |
| 231d |  beenraping | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,772 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | VAMPIER | February 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,469 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | incognitoquant | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,678 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | VAMPIER | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,212 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | kobie3 | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,155 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  Wallamikzoan | March 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,669 | −$15 −0.9% | — |
| 231d | Smoggy-KeyboardingNew account | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,895 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | SMJKC | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,016 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | mvp222 | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,015 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | westminster | March 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $22,254 | −$43 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | llzl9d9ujfurhuer3 | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,997 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | llzl9d9ujfurhuer3 | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,529 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | kobie33 fills | February 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,619 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | ZeZeZe | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,000 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Po1yBot-6xCiabMAqw | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,653 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 231d |  52centis3 fills | February 28 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $9,641 | −$152 −1.6% | — |
| 231d | westminster | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $10,644 | −$21 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | ddous | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,969 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 231d |  heresjimmy | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,491 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  largeleeks888 | February 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,183 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | 6482f | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,536 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | NotoriousBIG1 | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,408 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | jkrollingdice | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,904 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  d1k21 | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,497 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | Spicy-Centimeter | March 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,680 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 231d |  knrad | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,468 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d |  CaptainCoinflip | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,852 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | CaptainCoinflip | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,380 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | perroperro | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,964 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 231d | TTP | March 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,074 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | chong3582 fills | December 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $16,369 | −$107 −0.7% | — |
| 231d | platmagic97 | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,129 | −$14 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | 2117 | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,185 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | polibong | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,656 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | lordedward | February 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,208 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 231d |  ScottyNooo | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,755 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | eldestboy | February 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,720 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 231d | kobie3 | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,000 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | theigloo | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,478 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 231d | CaptainCoinflip2 fills | February 28 | BuyYes56¢ → 100¢ | $5,017 | +$3,926 +78% | 20 |
| 231d |  Cloverince2 fills | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,294 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | Pecheur1 | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,492 | −$51 −0.4% | — |
| 231d |  burratatata | February 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,456 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | tanazana | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,663 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | llzl9d9ujfurhuer3 | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,524 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 231d | llzl9d9ujfurhuer3 | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,992 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 231d | llzl9d9ujfurhuer3 | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,797 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | cqs | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,994 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
Middler0x15,251 shares
cranker10,050 shares
TheModestAnalyst734 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for January 31 means the market gives it about 0%.