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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 28 | 100% | −1 pts | −13 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 31 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 15 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 31 | 100% | −6 pts | −3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 31 | 100% | −6 pts | −4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 230d |  Ahpo | March 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,439 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 230d |  Chims | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,275 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 230d | Ahpo | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,817 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 230d | Ahpo | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,818 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 230d |  The-Joker | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,334 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 |
| 230d |  Roeman | March 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,753 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 230d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,258 | +$30 +0.2% | 20 |
| 230d | 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,992 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 230d | 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b042 fills | February 28 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $37,722 | +$579 +1.5% | 20 |
| 230d |  unpolete.Y.Fvalor | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,198 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 230d | oddsare | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,035 | −$12 −0.4% | — |
| 230d | drawmaker | February 28 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,948 | −$17 −0.6% | — |
| 230d |  Oxhunt20492 fills | February 28 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,792 | +$116 +3.1% | 20 |
| 230d | IBT | March 31 | SellYes100¢ | $1,163 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 230d |  Kycper2 fills | February 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,436 | +$25 +0.2% | 20 |
| 230d | aviato | February 28 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,961 | −$49 −0.5% | — |
| 230d | Kycper | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 230d | Kycper | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,749 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 230d |  BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate | February 28 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $19,820 | +$180 +0.9% | 20 |
| 230d | aviato2 fills | February 28 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,520 | +$32 +0.9% | 20 |
| 230d | SilentEdge | February 28 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,388 | −$26 −1.1% | — |
| 230d |  49023809234904 | February 28 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,011 | −$12 −1.2% | — |
| 230d |  ParaNormal | February 28 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,709 | +$52 +0.9% | 20 |
| 230d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | December 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,273 | +$26 +0.6% | 20 |
| 230d | Apro-367 | February 28 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,487 | −$94 −1.3% | — |
| 230d | JamesRodriguez88 | February 28 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,109 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 230d | Villainous-Dealing | February 28 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,043 | −$9 −0.9% | — |
| 230d | JimJax | February 28 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,902 | −$54 −0.9% | — |
| 230d | Bitz675 fills | February 28 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $12,711 | −$385 −3.0% | — |
| 230d |  elmcap22 fills | February 28 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $17,481 | +$834 +4.8% | 20 |
| 230d | Bitz675 fills | February 28 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $16,074 | +$1,153 +7.2% | 20 |
| 230d |  Epstein5 fills | February 28 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $33,362 | +$405 +1.2% | 20 |
| 230d | SilentEdge2 fills | February 28 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,342 | +$278 +12% | 20 |
| 230d | cashy10 fills | February 28 | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $26,526 | +$14,056 +53% | 22 |
| 230d |  tsybka4 fills | February 28 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $22,606 | +$1,050 +4.6% | 20 |
| 230d | tanazana2 fills | February 28 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $5,336 | −$427 −8.0% | — |
| 230d |  mombil | February 28 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,704 | +$129 +7.6% | 20 |
| 230d | wan123 | February 28 | SellNo7¢ → 0¢ | $1,518 | +$1,518 +100% | — |
| 230d | Leo-of-Zion | February 28 | SellNo17¢ → 0¢ | $1,656 | +$1,656 +100% | — |
| 230d | 66eeaf9e0c86d05c4204 | February 28 | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $1,036 | +$384 +37% | 20 |
| 230d |  bosshog | March 31 | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,057 | −$261 −25% | — |
| 230d | Tes572 fills | February 28 | SellYes74¢ → 100¢ | $3,016 | −$1,052 −35% | — |
| 230d |  llzl9d9ujfurhuer314 fills | February 28 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $44,576 | +$3,072 +6.9% | 20 |
| 230d | saik360 | February 28 | SellYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,733 | −$867 −50% | — |
| 230d | Helpful-ExpectancyNew account | February 28 | BuyNo32¢ → 0¢ | $3,000 | −$3,000 −100% | 39 |
| 230d | MB1982 | February 28 | BuyNo30¢ → 0¢ | $1,995 | −$1,995 −100% | 23 |
| 230d |  Loraaaaaa | February 28 | SellYes76¢ → 100¢ | $8,302 | −$2,687 −32% | — |
| 230d |  LinaBell | February 28 | SellNo20¢ → 0¢ | $1,825 | +$1,825 +100% | — |
| 230d | JimJax | February 28 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$956 +19% | 20 |
| 230d | Benny67b | February 28 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $2,428 | −$403 −17% | — |
| 230d | Czforty | February 28 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $3,684 | +$423 +11% | 20 |
| 230d | peaceandlove4 | February 28 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $2,157 | −$348 −16% | — |
| 230d |  eldestboy | December 31 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $5,514 | −$498 −9.0% | — |
| 230d | eldestboy | March 31 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $3,172 | −$295 −9.3% | — |
| 230d |  ImJustKen | February 28 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $6,130 | +$1,127 +18% | 20 |
| 230d | Darling-DemandNew account | February 28 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $13,258 | −$1,992 −15% | — |
| 230d | Trustinghorse | February 28 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,257 | −$183 −15% | — |
| 230d | 0xe617…f25111 fills | February 28 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $143,701 | +$5,359 +3.7% | 20 |
| 230d |  PajamaSam | February 28 | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $5,503 | −$1,207 −22% | — |
| 230d |  ChristianWolff | February 28 | BuyNo15¢ → 0¢ | $2,500 | −$2,500 −100% | 26 |
ImJustKen9,471 shares
bamesjond7,922 shares
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN7,622 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iran-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Israel is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land in Israeli territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for February 28 means the market gives it about 100%.