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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 28 | 100% | −2 pts | −16 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 31 | 0% | −5 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 27 | 0% | 0 pts | −18 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 31 | 100% | −5 pts | −4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 20 | 0% | −2 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 9 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 24 | 0% | −2 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 13 | 0% | −1 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 26 | 0% | −1 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 23 | 0% | −2 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 14 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 22 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 23 | 0% | −2 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 21 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 25 | 0% | −2 pts | −24 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 10 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 6 | 0% | −2 pts | −23 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 30 | 100% | −4 pts | −4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 19 | 0% | −2 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 16 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 1 | 100% | −2 pts | −17 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 15 | 0% | −11 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 18 | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 26 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 15 | 100% | −7 pts | −9 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 1 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 17 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 18 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 16 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 15 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 11 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 5 | 0% | −1 pts | −29 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 2 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 12 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 14 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 4 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 17 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 8 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 2 | 100% | −2 pts | −26 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 3 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 7 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 30 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 13 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 29 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 11 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 24 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 25 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 27 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 7 | 100% | −7 pts | −11 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 28 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 3 | 100% | −3 pts | −23 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 12 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 31 | 100% | −4 pts | −7 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 5 | 100% | −5 pts | −17 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 4 | 100% | −3 pts | −32 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 6 | 100% | −6 pts | −17 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 8 | 100% | −65 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 9 | 100% | −69 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 14 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 13 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 10 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 12 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 11 | 100% | −66 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 231d | Noluckniga | March 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,967 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  ForgiveMe | March 3 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,387 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Better-Dead | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,868 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Wobbly-ContourNew account | March 2 | SellYes>99¢ | $34,427 | −$34 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Wobbly-ContourNew account | March 1 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,362 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Wobbly-ContourNew account | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,056 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | melidani | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,444 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  Mr-Krabs | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,497 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Each-Injunction | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | ACAB1213AcAb | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,864 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Slow-Recollection | March 1 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,428 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Slow-Recollection | March 4 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,757 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Shocked-Population | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,847 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | ARS2023 | March 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,710 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | ARS2023 | March 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,099 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | digitest | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $13,852 | −$14 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Trustinghorse2 fills | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,996 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Zyzzly | March 1 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,069 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  heistbelmont | March 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,158 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Swerdlowzac | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,948 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Lordnever | March 3 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,257 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | bigtoetiger | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,685 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  yameteV9 | March 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $40,562 | −$81 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | Lordnever | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,330 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | CanadaWithPP | March 1 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,477 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | CanadaWithPP | March 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,110 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | yameteV9 | March 5 | SellYes>99¢ | $45,753 | −$91 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | Cloudy-Naming | March 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,491 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Taldenifull | March 2 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,498 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Beloved-Mushroom | March 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,071 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | MatanE | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,219 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | guillemaral | March 2 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,059 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | guillemaral | March 1 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,308 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | katarina-ever | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,994 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  The-Joker | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,239 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Icy-Gingerbread | March 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,189 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | 0x20fe…f411 | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $19,127 | −$19 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | 0x20fe…f411 | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $23,322 | −$23 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  MajidJavadi | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $39,297 | −$39 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | 0x20fe…f411 | March 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $10,775 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | 0x20fe…f411 | March 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,610 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  Bepis77 | March 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,490 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | 0x6b14…3e42 | March 3 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,460 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Bepis77 | March 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,028 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Bepis77 | March 3 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,129 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Bepis77 | March 1 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,829 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | 0xb881…58fa | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,243 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | 0xb881…58fa | March 1 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,315 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | C03B | March 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,864 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | zdolak | March 1 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,612 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | 0xe617…f251 | March 1 | SellYes>99¢ | $10,115 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Soupy-Stench | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,780 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Villainous-Dealing | March 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,919 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | Villainous-Dealing | March 4 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,855 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | KeepitTheRealDoWhatYouGottaDo | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,235 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | herewe | March 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,173 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Anon98192 | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,438 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  PancraceRoyer | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,204 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Huludubu | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,994 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Coordinated-Dozen | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,049 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for February 28 means the market gives it about 100%.