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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · 3¢ (3¢) | — | in 14d |
| December 31 | 5% | — | — | 4¢ · 6¢ (2¢) | $197 | in 76d |
| March 31 | 22% | — | −1 pts | 16¢ · 28¢ (12¢) | — | in 165d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16d | thoodr | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by September 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,776 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 16d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by September 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 17d |  Wan234 | December 31 | SellNo91¢ → 95¢ | $1,022 | −$45 −4.4% | — |
| 38d | grassb2 fills | December 31 | SellYes18¢ → 5¢ | $3,721 | +$2,687 +72% | — |
| 38d | starbr | December 31 | SellNo82¢ → 95¢ | $8,200 | −$1,300 −16% | — |
| 38d | sunnyg | December 31 | SellNo82¢ → 95¢ | $6,469 | −$1,026 −16% | — |
| 38d | sunnyg | December 31 | BuyNo81¢ → 95¢ | $6,390 | +$1,104 +17% | 17 |
| 38d | teacheer | December 31 | BuyNo81¢ → 95¢ | $6,883 | +$1,190 +17% | 17 |
| 38d | easna2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 95¢ | $15,014 | +$2,815 +19% | 17 |
| 38d | starbr | December 31 | BuyNo81¢ → 95¢ | $10,359 | +$1,790 +17% | 17 |
| 38d | westdo | December 31 | SellNo81¢ → 95¢ | $7,928 | −$1,370 −17% | — |
| 38d | easna | December 31 | SellNo81¢ → 95¢ | $7,601 | −$1,314 −17% | — |
| 38d | flowert2 fills | December 31 | SellYes19¢ → 5¢ | $3,559 | +$2,623 +74% | — |
| 39d | fivexi | December 31 | BuyNo79¢ → 95¢ | $7,626 | +$1,544 +20% | 18 |
| 39d | grassb | December 31 | BuyNo79¢ → 95¢ | $7,174 | +$1,453 +20% | 18 |
| 39d | westdo | December 31 | BuyNo79¢ → 95¢ | $7,733 | +$1,566 +20% | 18 |
| 41d |  Pulser | December 31 | BuyYes11¢ → 5¢ | $1,150 | −$617 −54% | 25 |
| 45d | dissidentdad6 fills | December 31 | SellYes14¢ → 5¢ | $9,186 | +$5,984 +65% | — |
| 48d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 49d | Sticky-Closing2 fills | December 31 | SellNo88¢ → 95¢ | $3,115 | −$230 −7.4% | — |
| 59d | thoodr | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,903 | +$97 +2.5% | 4 |
| 62d | Klutzy-User2 fills | December 31 | SellNo88¢ → 95¢ | $2,790 | −$236 −8.5% | — |
| 78d | Klutzy-User2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo67¢ → 95¢ | $4,481 | +$1,916 +43% | 24 |
| 78d | Klutzy-User | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,299 | −$34 −1.5% | — |
| 83d | Poory | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,571 | +$100 +2.2% | 4 |
| 90d | dhthyth | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,257 | −$154 −4.7% | — |
| 90d | dhthyth | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,497 | +$32 +2.1% | 4 |
| 95d | 8dcc906a9b2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes39¢ → 5¢ | $2,704 | −$2,355 −87% | 26 |
| 95d | Sticky-Closing2 fills | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $4,451 | −$836 −19% | — |
| 96d | Sticky-Closing3 fills | December 31 | BuyNo62¢ → 95¢ | $11,632 | +$6,154 +53% | 24 |
| 98d |  tetrose2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo52¢ → 95¢ | $10,317 | +$8,497 +82% | 24 |
| 99d | dissidentdad6 fills | December 31 | BuyYes48¢ → 5¢ | $11,436 | −$10,238 −90% | 25 |
| 101d | dropmeplease | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,103 | −$32 −2.9% | — |
| 103d | denizz | December 31 | BuyNo58¢ → 95¢ | $2,378 | +$1,520 +64% | 24 |
| 107d | nonkenny90 | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,213 | +$77 +6.4% | 4 |
| 108d | Laurenman | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,395 | +$105 +7.5% | 4 |
| 110d | Klutzy-User | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,039 | +$115 +11% | 4 |
| 110d |  Seutervoinen3 fills | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,314 | +$122 +2.3% | 4 |
| 111d | Sticky-Closing2 fills | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $7,456 | +$1,490 +20% | 4 |
| 112d | Xendo1 | December 31 | BuyNo52¢ → 95¢ | $1,092 | +$903 +83% | 24 |
| 112d | yan666 | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,570 | −$23 −1.5% | — |
| 112d | denizz5 fills | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $9,870 | +$965 +9.8% | 4 |
| 112d |  Marco-Rubio | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,373 | −$127 −5.4% | — |
| 112d |  Arbguy | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,273 | −$228 −5.3% | — |
| 113d | M2sx92kljs42 | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $2,874 | +$981 +34% | 4 |
| 113d | M2sx92kljs42 | December 31 | BuyNo33¢ → 95¢ | $5,113 | +$9,444 +185% | 29 |
| 114d | Sticky-Closing | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,373 | −$64 −2.7% | — |
| 115d |  Warren-Buffett | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,240 | +$39 +3.1% | 4 |
| 117d | BlindAndDeaf | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,172 | +$276 +8.7% | 4 |
| 117d | Marco-Rubio2 fills | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,299 | +$249 +11% | 4 |
| 119d | Sticky-Closing | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$113 +9.4% | 4 |
| 122d | M2sx92kljs42 | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $4,828 | +$477 +9.9% | 4 |
| 122d | LJa7io23MCv954j | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,903 | +$362 +12% | 4 |
Dr.PNL525 shares
ArmageddonRewardsBilly144 shares
bjprolo8 shares
Talophex100 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 2¢ for October 31 means the market gives it about 2%.