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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 10% | −2 pts | −7 pts | 9¢ · 10¢ (1¢) | $2.87K | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8h | V1nch0u2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo88¢ → 91¢ | $2,186 | +$75 +3.4% | 12 |
| 5d | V1nch0u | December 31 | SellNo86¢ → 91¢ | $1,054 | −$55 −5.2% | — |
| 11d |  MineYours | December 31 | SellNo89¢ → 91¢ | $1,799 | −$30 −1.7% | — |
| 17d |  AlAhmeda | Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 4 |
| 28d | efghvcdbjkpqwo | Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,298 | −$126 −1.7% | — |
| 29d |  scoutwing | December 31 | BuyNo87¢ → 91¢ | $1,000 | +$35 +3.5% | 12 |
| 33d |  paddaa2 fills | December 31 | SellNo73¢ → 91¢ | $2,702 | −$660 −24% | — |
| 36d | laureman | Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,304 | +$59 +2.6% | 4 |
| 36d | paddaa2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo60¢ → 91¢ | $4,508 | +$2,282 +51% | 24 |
| 36d | paddaa2 fills | Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,755 | −$228 −4.0% | — |
| 54d | Peerusdenarus2 fills | Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,063 | −$231 −7.5% | — |
| 58d | melonmanm2 fills | Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,537 | +$298 +8.4% | 4 |
| 58d | melonmanm | Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,417 | +$20 +1.4% | 4 |
| 59d | 0x1fd0…c6a7 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,182 | +$13 +1.1% | 4 |
| 60d | justme003 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,583 | +$101 +6.4% | 4 |
| 62d |  FTX2.02 fills | December 31 | SellNo60¢ → 91¢ | $3,181 | −$1,595 −50% | — |
| 71d | mantre | December 31 | SellNo65¢ → 91¢ | $1,375 | −$525 −38% | — |
| 71d | efghvcdbjkpqwo2 fills | Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $3,132 | +$668 +21% | 4 |
| 72d | paddaa | Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $7,000 | +$1,982 +28% | 4 |
| 73d | katbot | December 31 | BuyNo48¢ → 91¢ | $1,000 | +$878 +88% | 24 |
| 73d |  Mantzuraj | Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $1,224 | −$387 −32% | — |
| 74d | LJa7io23MCv954j | Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $2,672 | −$866 −32% | — |
| 74d | M2sx92kljs42 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,678 | −$241 −6.5% | — |
| 74d | Wowiwow | Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,619 | +$105 +6.5% | 4 |
| 74d | denizz | December 31 | SellYes52¢ → 10¢ | $2,140 | +$1,747 +82% | — |
| 75d | Branset | Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$480 +24% | 4 |
| 76d | M2sx92kljs422 fills | December 31 | BuyNo41¢ → 91¢ | $3,583 | +$4,230 +118% | 26 |
| 76d | Wowiwow | December 31 | BuyYes61¢ → 10¢ | $1,127 | −$951 −84% | 24 |
| 76d | 0x7678…22a3 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,627 | −$95 −5.8% | — |
| 76d | FTX2.0 | December 31 | BuyNo50¢ → 91¢ | $1,250 | +$1,034 +83% | 24 |
| 77d | Wowiwow | Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,892 | +$308 +16% | 4 |
| 78d | M2sx92kljs42 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31? | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $3,034 | +$884 +29% | 4 |
| 78d | LJa7io23MCv954j | Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? | BuyNo56¢ → 100¢ | $1,971 | +$1,566 +79% | 4 |
| 78d |  Rex416 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31? | BuyYes34¢ → 0¢ | $1,957 | −$1,957 −100% | 6 |
| 78d | denizz | December 31 | BuyYes63¢ → 10¢ | $2,194 | −$1,862 −85% | 24 |
| 78d |  Car | December 31 | BuyYes61¢ → 10¢ | $1,223 | −$1,033 −84% | 24 |
| 79d | TheShipThatNeverSinks | December 31 | SellNo41¢ → 91¢ | $1,032 | −$1,231 −119% | — |
| 80d | TheShipThatNeverSinks | December 31 | BuyNo76¢ → 91¢ | $1,900 | +$364 +19% | 20 |
| 82d | denizz | December 31 | BuyNo76¢ → 91¢ | $1,737 | +$333 +19% | 20 |
| 169d | Wowiwow | Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,955 | +$267 +14% | 4 |
| 169d | KiernanMeister | Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,133 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 174d | ZIONISTSAREGHEY | Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,704 | +$8 +0.2% | 4 |
| 176d | tutrucks | Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,014 | −$8 −0.4% | — |
| 177d |  thefakenick | Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,494 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 178d | Athletic-Manager | Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,079 | −$14 −0.5% | — |
| 182d | tutrucks2 fills | Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,844 | +$190 +3.3% | 4 |
| 183d | thefakenick | Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,455 | +$45 +3.1% | 4 |
| 183d | Athletic-Manager | Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$93 +3.1% | 4 |
| 183d | ningquewulan123 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,537 | +$113 +2.0% | 4 |
| 183d | 0xc978…aa84 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,252 | +$9 +0.7% | 4 |
| 183d |  scottilicious4 fills | Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $28,571 | +$1,236 +4.3% | 4 |
| 187d | JasonHall6641 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,404 | +$191 +14% | 4 |
| 188d | notcookie | Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,507 | +$225 +15% | 4 |
| 191d | JerryKeller1630 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,682 | +$447 +27% | 4 |
| 199d | bigricke | Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,815 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 200d | NancyBarnes7278 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $1,058 | +$412 +39% | 4 |
| 207d | Huludubu | Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,175 | +$25 +2.1% | 4 |
| 211d | Blx69 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,324 | +$29 +2.2% | 4 |
| 212d | DaisyMacdonald2891 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,106 | −$227 −20% | — |
| 213d | DaisyMacdonald2891 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,120 | +$213 +19% | 4 |
Warren-Buffett3,000 shares
tetrase2,701 sharesCar2,573 shares
Outsid3rTrading2,500 sharesscoutwing1,146 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. Entering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify. Egyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. Foreign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify. Qualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 10¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 10%.