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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1 | 100% | +72 pts | +49 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 26 | 0% | −6 pts | −57 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 22 | 0% | −6 pts | −37 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 31 | 100% | +12 pts | +13 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 31 | 100% | +5 pts | +8 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 31 | 100% | +3 pts | +4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| July 17 | 100% | +14 pts | +28 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 29 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 15 | 0% | −11 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 2 | 100% | +54 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 19 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 10 | 100% | +29 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 18 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 17 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 3 | 100% | +51 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 6 | 100% | +66 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 8 | 100% | +58 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 16 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 107d | hitjnn214 | July 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,525 | +$11 +0.2% | 4 |
| 107d | Reasonable-Tabby4 fills | July 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,642 | +$38 +0.2% | 4 |
| 107d | Stonktrader | July 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 4 |
| 107d | Ill-Fated-Reef | July 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,497 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 107d | tradesbyicky2 fills | July 1 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,790 | −$66 −1.1% | — |
| 107d |  prophet-spaces | July 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,577 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 107d |  Wunkles | July 1 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,434 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 107d | BrightStars | July 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,769 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 107d |  2Sherlock | July 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,552 | +$15 +0.2% | 4 |
| 107d | Shy-Note | July 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 107d |  Hakei. | July 2 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,136 | +$4 +0.4% | 4 |
| 107d |  libratus13 fills | July 2 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,375 | +$50 +0.8% | 4 |
| 107d |  Brokie | July 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,598 | +$8 +0.3% | 4 |
| 107d |  Waterfall | July 1 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,605 | +$19 +0.5% | 4 |
| 107d |  residual | July 1 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,055 | +$25 +1.2% | 4 |
| 107d | Wunkles | July 1 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,999 | +$61 +1.2% | 4 |
| 107d | TruthseekerR | July 1 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,857 | +$72 +2.5% | 4 |
| 107d | dry-september2 fills | July 1 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $10,824 | +$1,175 +11% | 4 |
| 107d | Huludubu | July 1 | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $3,667 | −$782 −21% | — |
| 107d |  tetrose | July 1 | BuyNo14¢ → 0¢ | $1,332 | −$1,332 −100% | 6 |
| 107d | LarBotPrime | July 1 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $2,116 | −$307 −14% | — |
| 107d |  paracels | July 1 | BuyNo10¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 4 |
| 107d |  wolfofshelbyy | July 1 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,902 | +$98 +5.2% | 6 |
| 107d |  WarriorPooh | July 1 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,485 | +$153 +6.1% | 6 |
| 108d | tradesbyicky2 fills | July 1 | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $3,816 | +$2,041 +53% | 6 |
| 108d | ev1710 | July 1 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$310 +7.8% | 6 |
| 108d | Legal-Minimum-Providence | July 1 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $3,897 | −$423 −11% | — |
| 108d | thoodr | July 2 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,101 | +$15 +0.7% | 4 |
| 108d | thoodr | July 6 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,846 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 108d |  ELEZIOR-TV | July 17 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,212 | −$9 −0.7% | — |
| 108d | Sulto12 fills | July 1 | SellYes66¢ → 100¢ | $3,278 | −$1,658 −51% | — |
| 108d | dorvalino | July 1 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,200 | +$216 +4.1% | 5 |
| 108d | Sulto1 | July 1 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$99 +7.1% | 6 |
| 108d | Ricpb | July 1 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,425 | +$111 +7.8% | 6 |
| 108d | Villainous-Prose2 fills | July 1 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,652 | −$149 −3.2% | — |
| 108d | Villainous-Prose2 fills | July 1 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,700 | +$100 +2.1% | 5 |
| 108d | Queasy-Vendor | July 6 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,537 | +$5 +0.3% | 4 |
| 108d | Queasy-Vendor | July 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,617 | +$7 +0.2% | 4 |
| 108d | 0x8931…a90c | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,673 | +$13 +0.2% | 4 |
| 108d | Silent-Dogwood-TimberNew account | July 1 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $11,927 | +$243 +2.0% | 5 |
| 108d | Calculating-Relative4 fills | July 1 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $15,709 | +$452 +2.9% | 5 |
| 108d | anoin123 | July 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,758 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 108d | BigDataEnergy | July 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,991 | −$8 −0.4% | — |
| 108d | SleeperHunter | July 17 | BuyYes100¢ | $4,642 | +$23 +0.5% | 4 |
| 108d |  balthazar | July 17 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,123 | +$6 +0.5% | 4 |
| 108d | nickthechopper | July 6 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,107 | +$21 +1.0% | 4 |
| 108d |  rewardbots4 fills | July 10 | SellYes74¢ → 100¢ | $5,179 | −$1,827 −35% | — |
| 108d | babymario141 | July 1 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $4,900 | +$286 +5.8% | 5 |
| 108d | babymario141 | June 30 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,184 | −$33 −1.5% | — |
| 108d | Hakei. | August 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,579 | −$14 −0.3% | — |
| 108d | kingmaker. | July 1 | BuyNo9¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 12 |
| 108d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | July 2 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,765 | −$120 −3.2% | — |
| 108d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | July 1 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,243 | −$79 −6.4% | — |
| 108d | SleeperHunter | July 1 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,477 | +$153 +10% | 6 |
| 108d | SleeperHunter2 fills | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,261 | +$26 +0.4% | 4 |
| 108d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed2 fills | July 17 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,948 | −$129 −4.4% | — |
| 108d |  CoinTrick | July 1 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$196 +12% | 7 |
| 108d |  TBill1 | July 6 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,746 | +$173 +9.9% | 5 |
| 108d | TBill1 | July 8 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,421 | +$157 +6.5% | 4 |
| 108d |  StarMaster2 fills | June 30 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $2,313 | +$312 +13% | 6 |
d1zup26,357 sharesOn June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for July 1 means the market gives it about 100%.