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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +24 pts | +59 pts | 94¢ · 96¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 124d | AlanYagami-T | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,808 | −$193 −11% | — |
| 124d | 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA96042 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $3,817 | +$1,283 +34% | 20 |
| 124d | Skinny-Class | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,137 | −$163 −14% | — |
| 124d |  Car | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $3,343 | +$441 +13% | 20 |
| 124d | Jerzy | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $1,095 | +$405 +37% | 20 |
| 124d |  coastalgusts | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | SellYes73¢ → 100¢ | $1,067 | −$395 −37% | — |
| 124d |  MisTKy | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,184 | +$395 +18% | 20 |
| 126d | Skinny-Class | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $1,798 | +$702 +39% | 20 |
| 126d | 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA9604 | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | SellYes66¢ → 100¢ | $1,636 | −$843 −52% | — |
| 127d | Huludubu | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BuyYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,080 | +$720 +67% | 20 |
| 127d | nothing4something | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BuyYes58¢ → 100¢ | $1,424 | +$1,022 +72% | 20 |
| 127d |  wbxxx | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BuyYes47¢ → 100¢ | $1,416 | +$1,586 +112% | 20 |
| 128d | 0x4eb1…4547 | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BuyNo75¢ → 0¢ | $1,074 | −$1,074 −100% | 20 |
| 129d | AndreasSchm | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | SellNo66¢ → 0¢ | $1,527 | +$1,527 +100% | — |
| 129d | Myway | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | SellYes32¢ → 100¢ | $1,124 | −$2,441 −217% | — |
| 130d |  yuweng2 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BuyNo68¢ → 0¢ | $11,045 | −$11,045 −100% | 20 |
| 131d | Right-Sweatsuit-Jailhouse | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BuyNo66¢ → 0¢ | $1,400 | −$1,400 −100% | 26 |
| 131d | Detailed-Lip | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BuyNo65¢ → 0¢ | $5,000 | −$5,000 −100% | 20 |
| 131d |  Shovelface | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BuyNo66¢ → 0¢ | $4,000 | −$4,000 −100% | 20 |
| 135d | Myway | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BuyYes47¢ → 100¢ | $3,500 | +$3,926 +112% | 21 |
| 136d | 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA9604 | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | SellNo54¢ → 0¢ | $1,252 | +$1,252 +100% | — |
| 138d | snackmonies | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BuyNo58¢ → 0¢ | $3,272 | −$3,272 −100% | 20 |
| 138d | PepsiWarrior | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BuyNo50¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 20 |
| 140d | aaabbb2 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BuyYes54¢ → 100¢ | $2,880 | +$2,473 +86% | 20 |
Quantollah5,907 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.