| Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?Ends in 195d | No | 245 | 65¢ → 97¢ | $239 | +$79 +50% |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | No | 324 | 38¢ → 65¢ | $209 | +$87 +72% |
| US recession by end of 2026?Ends in 105d | No | 188 | 83¢ → 93¢ | $175 | +$19 +12% |
| Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 169 | 92¢ → 99¢ | $167 | +$11 +7.4% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Ends in 79d | No | 166 | 94¢ → 97¢ | $160 | +$4 +2.8% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 161 | 69¢ → 91¢ | $147 | +$35 +32% |
| Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 147 | 78¢ → 97¢ | $142 | +$28 +24% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 146 | 85¢ → 90¢ | $132 | +$8 +6.3% |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 150 | 69¢ → 88¢ | $131 | +$27 +26% |
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B?Ends in 195d | Yes | 264 | 26¢ → 43¢ | $114 | +$45 +64% |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Ends in 2d | No | 116 | 84¢ → 98¢ | $114 | +$16 +17% |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 118 | 57¢ → 91¢ | $107 | +$39 +58% |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 114 | 85¢ → 94¢ | $107 | +$11 +11% |
| Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 104 | 95¢ → 98¢ | $101 | +$3 +3.2% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 109 | 64¢ → 91¢ | $99 | +$29 +41% |
| Will Trump nationalize elections?Ends in 75d | No | 106 | 69¢ → 91¢ | $96 | +$24 +33% |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 30?Ends in 44d | Yes | 112 | 82¢ → 86¢ | $96 | +$4 +4.2% |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 101 | 91¢ → 95¢ | $96 | +$4 +4.4% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Ends in 79d | Yes | 151 | 66¢ → 63¢ | $94 | −$5 −4.6% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Ends in 79d | No | 100 | 90¢ → 94¢ | $94 | +$4 +4.4% |
| Will Trump deport 400-500k people?Ends in 134d | Yes | 133 | 48¢ → 66¢ | $87 | +$24 +37% |
| Lindsay Clancy convicted of manslaughter in 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 90 | 92¢ → 95¢ | $86 | +$2 +2.8% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 91 | 92¢ → 94¢ | $85 | +$1 +1.4% |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?Ends in 74d | Yes | 103 | 71¢ → 80¢ | $82 | +$9 +12% |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 89 | 90¢ → 91¢ | $81 | +$0 +0.3% |
| Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 81 | 92¢ → 98¢ | $80 | +$5 +6.2% |
| Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 86 | 22¢ → 92¢ | $79 | +$60 +310% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: ObamaEnds in 75d | Nothing | 83 | 81¢ → 94¢ | $77 | +$10 +16% |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | No | 100 | 73¢ → 74¢ | $74 | +$1 +0.7% |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 110 | 31¢ → 65¢ | $71 | +$38 +112% |
| Trump goes to space in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 70 | 98¢ → 98¢ | $69 | +$0 +0.1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 100 | 68¢ → 68¢ | $67 | −$1 −1.3% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Ends in 78d | No | 72 | 49¢ → 94¢ | $67 | +$32 +91% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 94 | 54¢ → 71¢ | $67 | +$17 +33% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 68 | 87¢ → 97¢ | $66 | +$7 +12% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 74 | 77¢ → 86¢ | $64 | +$7 +13% |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | No | 77 | 80¢ → 82¢ | $63 | +$1 +1.5% |
| NATO dissolves before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 62 | 92¢ → 99¢ | $61 | +$4 +7.5% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 68 | 87¢ → 90¢ | $60 | +$2 +3.0% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 65 | 83¢ → 93¢ | $60 | +$7 +12% |
| US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 60 | 91¢ → 97¢ | $58 | +$4 +6.7% |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 69 | 69¢ → 80¢ | $55 | +$7 +15% |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 56 | 97¢ → 97¢ | $55 | +$0 +0.5% |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 55 | 35¢ → 97¢ | $54 | +$34 +177% |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 55 | 88¢ → 96¢ | $53 | +$4 +8.9% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 53 | 95¢ → 98¢ | $52 | +$2 +3.5% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 56 | 77¢ → 93¢ | $52 | +$9 +20% |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?Ends in 133d | No | 57 | 60¢ → 87¢ | $50 | +$15 +45% |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 56 | 49¢ → 87¢ | $48 | +$21 +76% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 752d | No | 49 | 98¢ → 99¢ | $48 | +$0 +0.7% |
| Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 71 | 66¢ → 68¢ | $48 | +$2 +3.7% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 51 | 78¢ → 94¢ | $48 | +$8 +19% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 48 | 94¢ → 97¢ | $47 | +$1 +3.2% |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 183d | Yes | 100 | 45¢ → 46¢ | $46 | +$1 +3.0% |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?Ends in 74d | No | 47 | 97¢ → 98¢ | $46 | +$0 +0.6% |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 70 | 16¢ → 66¢ | $46 | +$35 +302% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?Ends in 74d | No | 46 | 94¢ → 98¢ | $45 | +$2 +4.6% |
| Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?Ends in 165d | No | 47 | 89¢ → 94¢ | $44 | +$2 +5.6% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | No | 45 | 97¢ → 97¢ | $44 | −$0 −0.4% |
| Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 484 | 14¢ → 9¢ | $44 | −$24 −36% |
| Greenland snap election called by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 46 | 89¢ → 95¢ | $43 | +$3 +6.6% |
| Greece x Turkey military engagement by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 45 | 86¢ → 96¢ | $43 | +$4 +11% |
| Denmark snap election called by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 43 | 92¢ → 99¢ | $42 | +$3 +7.2% |
| Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 46 | 80¢ → 92¢ | $42 | +$5 +15% |
| Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?Ends in 84d | Yes | 112 | 19¢ → 37¢ | $42 | +$20 +94% |
| Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Ends in 52d | Yes | 60 | 57¢ → 69¢ | $41 | +$7 +21% |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 8d | Yes | 46 | 74¢ → 89¢ | $41 | +$6 +19% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 73 | 67¢ → 56¢ | $41 | −$8 −17% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 43 | 76¢ → 93¢ | $40 | +$7 +22% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Ends in 440d | Yes | 67 | 28¢ → 60¢ | $40 | +$21 +113% |
| OPEC dissolves in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 40 | 91¢ → 99¢ | $39 | +$3 +8.8% |
| Human moon landing in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 40 | 92¢ → 98¢ | $39 | +$3 +7.3% |
| Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 40 | 92¢ → 98¢ | $39 | +$3 +7.5% |
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 900B and 1T?Ends in 195d | Yes | 302 | 21¢ → 13¢ | $39 | −$23 −37% |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?Ends in 74d | No | 40 | 97¢ → 98¢ | $39 | +$0 +0.4% |
| Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 40 | 89¢ → 97¢ | $39 | +$3 +9.6% |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?Ends in 74d | No | 40 | 96¢ → 97¢ | $39 | +$0 +1.2% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Ends in 79d | No | 40 | 97¢ → 97¢ | $39 | +$0 +0.2% |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 752d | No | 39 | 98¢ → 98¢ | $38 | +$0 +0.1% |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 40 | 79¢ → 96¢ | $38 | +$7 +21% |
| Blue wave in 2026?Ends in 79d | Yes | 46 | 72¢ → 84¢ | $38 | +$5 +15% |
| Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?Ends in 1536d | No | 51 | 89¢ → 75¢ | $38 | −$7 −16% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 50 | 65¢ → 75¢ | $37 | +$5 +15% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 40 | 74¢ → 91¢ | $36 | +$7 +22% |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on December 31?Ends in 74d | Yes | 46 | 39¢ → 79¢ | $36 | +$18 +101% |
| Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 38 | 94¢ → 94¢ | $36 | +$0 +0.3% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 47 | 57¢ → 76¢ | $36 | +$9 +33% |
| Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 29, 2026?Ends ended | Yes | 39 | 67¢ → 90¢ | $35 | +$9 +35% |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 36 | 82¢ → 97¢ | $35 | +$5 +18% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Ends in 165d | Yes | 60 | 73¢ → 57¢ | $34 | −$9 −21% |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 39 | 87¢ → 88¢ | $34 | +$0 +0.6% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Ends in 106d | Yes | 181 | 29¢ → 19¢ | $33 | −$19 −36% |
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 34 | 67¢ → 98¢ | $33 | +$10 +45% |
| Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1550.00 and 1599.99 at the end of December 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 71 | 6¢ → 47¢ | $33 | +$29 +745% |
| Will Madrid host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?Ends ended | Yes | 92 | 38¢ → 37¢ | $33 | −$2 −5.1% |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?Ends in 134d | No | 37 | 80¢ → 90¢ | $33 | +$4 +12% |
| Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of December 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 36 | 79¢ → 94¢ | $33 | +$5 +19% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 36 | 79¢ → 92¢ | $33 | +$4 +15% |
| Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Jun 30?Ends in 256d | No | 74 | 36¢ → 45¢ | $33 | +$6 +22% |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 42 | 41¢ → 78¢ | $33 | +$16 +91% |
