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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | — | 0 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $29.9K | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13h | SILF4 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 98¢ | $31,374 | −$406 −1.3% | — |
| 1d | adddrr66mmyyt | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $1,350 | −$1 −0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | song211 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo98¢ | $1,046 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 1d | hmgj769 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $2,100 | −$1 −0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | Jjw | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo98¢ | $2,017 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 1d | Corrupt-Lark2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $18,960 | +$46 +0.2% | 22 |
| 2d | Avamax2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo96¢ → 98¢ | $57,790 | −$980 −1.7% | — |
| 3d | Username2133 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $1,962 | −$3 −0.2% | 20 |
| 4d |  Porx2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 98¢ | $3,356 | −$35 −1.0% | — |
| 4d |  DEGENKHAN4 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $11,067 | +$72 +0.6% | 22 |
| 4d | 45654912344tyf | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $2,400 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 5d | Bolteer | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo98¢ | $1,757 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 5d |  MisterAnderson.eth | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $4,890 | +$8 +0.2% | 21 |
| 5d | win-win-win99 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo98¢ | $4,885 | −$13 −0.3% | — |
| 5d | dsgfdh764eesrggfh | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $1,755 | −$1 −0.1% | 20 |
| 5d | 0xcd23…5f5d9 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo98¢ | $12,872 | −$18 −0.1% | — |
| 5d | 0xcd23…5f5d9 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $12,887 | +$3 +0.0% | 21 |
| 5d | momo5136 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $18,470 | +$277 +1.5% | 22 |
| 6d | llh | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $4,843 | +$2 +0.1% | 21 |
| 7d | Bolteer | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $1,760 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 7d | 0x4914…eaec4 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo98¢ | $5,373 | −$19 −0.4% | — |
| 7d | 0x4914…eaec4 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $5,378 | +$14 +0.3% | 21 |
| 7d | 0x7488…43a24 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo98¢ | $6,223 | −$23 −0.4% | — |
| 7d | 0x7488…43a24 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $6,230 | +$16 +0.3% | 21 |
| 7d | iliabouchouev2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $8,491 | +$62 +0.7% | 22 |
| 7d |  DFK | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo98¢ | $1,308 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 8d | Avamax20 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 98¢ | $299,229 | +$6,770 +2.3% | 23 |
| 8d | samemma | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo98¢ | $5,669 | −$15 −0.3% | — |
| 9d | SILVERboy | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo98¢ | $1,356 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 11d | 0x17e5…f5543 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo98¢ | $6,888 | −$28 −0.4% | — |
| 11d | 0x17e5…f5542 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $3,226 | +$8 +0.3% | 21 |
| 11d | destiny | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $1,954 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 11d | afdafdafdafdafd3 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $8,863 | +$90 +1.0% | 22 |
| 12d | aviato | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo98¢ | $3,454 | −$12 −0.4% | — |
| 12d |  Anjun | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo98¢ | $83,813 | −$301 −0.4% | — |
| 12d | dushen330 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $1,847 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 13d | adrtyyy7 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $1,300 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 13d | FranklinArma34 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo96¢ → 98¢ | $23,646 | −$375 −1.6% | — |
| 13d |  ponczyk | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $1,077 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 13d | Cyberpunk95 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo98¢ | $12,132 | −$31 −0.3% | — |
| 13d | muxuebingcheng311 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellYes2¢ | $1,028 | +$24 +2.4% | — |
| 13d | randomgo | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo98¢ | $14,653 | −$68 −0.5% | — |
| 13d | 0x4a22…55516 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 98¢ | $9,070 | −$42 −0.5% | — |
| 13d | 0x4a22…55516 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $9,079 | +$33 +0.4% | 22 |
| 14d | Glissada7783671 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $2,000 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 14d | 32698345436 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $3,200 | +$11 +0.4% | 21 |
| 15d | fhgf76rtruhgkhj | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $3,150 | +$11 +0.4% | 21 |
| 15d | SILVERboy2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $2,705 | +$21 +0.8% | 21 |
| 15d | sheen075 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 98¢ | $80,079 | +$1,610 +2.0% | 23 |
| 15d |  elmcap24 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $29,903 | +$252 +0.8% | 22 |
| 15d | Well-Informed-Wire-Picket | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $6,124 | +$54 +0.9% | 22 |
| 15d | lowbow2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $3,755 | +$44 +1.2% | 21 |
| 15d | AVTOmbw | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $1,150 | +$9 +0.8% | 20 |
| 16d | Jjw | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $2,000 | +$18 +0.9% | 21 |
| 16d | xvcxrt65e | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $1,155 | +$10 +0.9% | 20 |
| 16d | freeman1232 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $12,464 | +$136 +1.1% | 22 |
| 16d | Servantetech | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 98¢ | $3,233 | −$38 −1.2% | — |
| 17d |  budu100 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $4,845 | +$53 +1.1% | 21 |
| 17d | Triangular-Pearl-Hatred | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BuyYes3¢ → 2¢ | $2,000 | −$822 −41% | 37 |
| 18d | frol | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SellNo96¢ → 98¢ | $2,465 | −$38 −1.5% | — |
winforretire401,247 sharesAnjun369,151 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 2¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 2%.