Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delcy Rodríguez | 94% | — | — | 93¢ · 94¢ (1¢) | — | in 74d |
| María Corina Machado | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | — | in 74d |
| Marco Rubio | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (3¢) | — | in 74d |
| Dinorah Figuera | 2% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | — | in 74d |
| No Head of State | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 74d |
| Nicolás Maduro | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 74d |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 74d |
| Jorge Rodríguez | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 74d |
| Donald Trump | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 74d |
| Vladimir Padrino López | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 74d |
| Evan Pettus | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 74d |
| Pete Hegseth | <1% | 0 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 74d |
| Richard Grenell | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 74d |
| Edmundo González | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| Dan Caine | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| Frank Donovan | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69d | Delcy Rodríguez | SellYes90¢ → 94¢ | $5,371 | −$186 −3.5% | — | |
| 94d | 0x85fa…43163 fills | Frank Donovan | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,569 | +$23 +0.2% | 4 |
| 98d | Delcy Rodríguez | BuyYes88¢ → 94¢ | $2,807 | +$182 +6.5% | 4 | |
| 114d | 0x2c04…4fac3 fills | Vladimir Padrino López | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,302 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 114d | 0x400b…12cb3 fills | Vladimir Padrino López | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,302 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 94¢ for Delcy Rodríguez means the market gives it about 94%.