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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 4¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | $159 | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d | mavx | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo96¢ | $1,008 | +$1 +0.1% | — |
| 2d | Liquidifier | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo96¢ | $3,029 | +$2 +0.1% | — |
| 3d | awei02 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo96¢ | $1,379 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 8d | momom5 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 96¢ | $28,402 | +$2,666 +9.4% | 28 |
| 13d |  Wagner275738 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ | $2,079 | +$5 +0.3% | 23 |
| 13d |  ponczyk | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ | $2,016 | +$5 +0.3% | 23 |
| 17d | onekey02 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 96¢ | $3,229 | +$42 +1.3% | 23 |
| 36d | Incomparable-Attitude2 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellYes6¢ → 4¢ | $2,933 | +$1,058 +36% | — |
| 37d | thoodr2 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 96¢ | $4,700 | +$113 +2.4% | 24 |
| 42d |  4751346 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 96¢ | $1,000 | +$24 +2.4% | 24 |
| 49d | CryptoLBL | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 96¢ | $2,000 | +$48 +2.4% | 24 |
| 50d | FranklinArma33 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 96¢ | $4,723 | −$186 −3.9% | — |
| 51d | goodpiglet2 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 96¢ | $2,488 | +$72 +2.9% | 24 |
| 51d |  Trashbag5 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo92¢ → 96¢ | $22,279 | +$1,155 +5.2% | 26 |
| 57d | immortals | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 96¢ | $1,961 | −$102 −5.2% | — |
| 64d |  aenews2 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyYes8¢ → 4¢ | $1,261 | −$638 −51% | 42 |
| 67d | haha0906020115 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo92¢ → 96¢ | $1,506 | −$64 −4.3% | — |
| 72d |  Debosnys2 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo92¢ → 96¢ | $5,202 | +$240 +4.6% | 25 |
| 74d |  LlamaLoco00005 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyYes13¢ → 4¢ | $10,310 | −$7,273 −71% | 57 |
| 77d |  yaoyaolinxian2 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo88¢ → 96¢ | $4,370 | −$426 −9.8% | — |
| 78d | mamboNB52 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo90¢ → 96¢ | $5,951 | −$391 −6.6% | — |
| 78d |  smallpig4 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo67¢ → 96¢ | $33,732 | −$14,818 −44% | — |
| 79d |  linsen | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo92¢ → 96¢ | $2,024 | +$93 +4.6% | 25 |
| 79d | smallpig13 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo92¢ → 96¢ | $34,070 | +$1,416 +4.2% | 25 |
| 87d | -0-3 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo92¢ → 96¢ | $10,055 | +$413 +4.1% | 25 |
| 88d | Vetch2 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 96¢ | $18,129 | +$1,130 +6.2% | 26 |
| 88d | 4zyrZabz1yZ4 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 96¢ | $1,006 | +$82 +8.1% | 27 |
| 88d | Daviddu08132 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo92¢ → 96¢ | $3,031 | +$132 +4.4% | 25 |
| 88d | Liquidifier2 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 96¢ | $6,093 | +$517 +8.5% | 28 |
| 88d |  Chims | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 96¢ | $1,133 | +$106 +9.4% | 28 |
| 88d | momo5132 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 96¢ | $7,972 | +$690 +8.7% | 28 |
| 88d |  elmcap2 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 96¢ | $1,519 | −$93 −6.1% | — |
| 88d |  wish- | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo92¢ → 96¢ | $1,068 | −$49 −4.6% | — |
| 90d |  classified | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo95¢ → 96¢ | $1,140 | −$15 −1.3% | — |
| 90d | Indolent-Dogwood | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 96¢ | $1,284 | −$73 −5.7% | — |
| 93d | Incomparable-Attitude2 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyYes7¢ → 4¢ | $2,110 | −$995 −47% | 46 |
| 94d | Serene-Decision | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo93¢ → 96¢ | $46,390 | +$1,621 +3.5% | 25 |
| 95d | Elliptical-Demand | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 96¢ | $2,159 | −$75 −3.5% | — |
| 96d |  SongXiaoFeng | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 96¢ | $3,988 | −$95 −2.4% | — |
| 98d |  hgamezoon2 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 96¢ | $6,289 | +$151 +2.4% | 24 |
| 102d | Another-Allowance | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 96¢ | $1,016 | +$24 +2.4% | 24 |
| 103d | Smallpeepee2 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 96¢ | $8,807 | +$779 +8.8% | 28 |
| 103d | Lone-Hydrocarbon2 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 96¢ | $4,374 | −$153 −3.5% | — |
| 104d | GrinderJoe | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 96¢ | $2,212 | −$77 −3.5% | — |
| 105d | elmcap2 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo93¢ → 96¢ | $43,233 | +$1,511 +3.5% | 25 |
| 105d | Sturdy-Hat | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo92¢ → 96¢ | $1,586 | −$73 −4.6% | — |
| 107d |  O3O2 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo93¢ → 96¢ | $4,650 | +$162 +3.5% | 25 |
| 109d | Lone-Hydrocarbon2 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 96¢ | $2,512 | +$147 +5.9% | 26 |
| 111d | lion449 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 96¢ | $1,965 | −$113 −5.8% | — |
| 119d | lion449 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo93¢ → 96¢ | $2,000 | +$79 +3.9% | 25 |
| 126d | GrinderJoe | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 96¢ | $1,206 | +$84 +6.9% | 27 |
| 127d | Ethan99999 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo89¢ → 96¢ | $1,028 | −$90 −8.7% | — |
| 149d | Elonmustache | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo90¢ → 96¢ | $1,219 | −$83 −6.8% | — |
| 161d | chifangaoshou | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 96¢ | $1,357 | +$94 +6.9% | 27 |
| 167d | FranklinArma3 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 96¢ | $15,514 | +$1,526 +9.8% | 28 |
| 169d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo85¢ → 96¢ | $3,400 | +$450 +13% | 30 |
| 170d | Innocent-Cob | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SellNo86¢ → 96¢ | $1,163 | −$139 −12% | — |
| 176d | Sturdy-Hat | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo87¢ → 96¢ | $1,500 | +$159 +11% | 29 |
| 179d | stupid224 fills | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo85¢ → 96¢ | $14,178 | +$1,846 +13% | 30 |
| 180d | Innocent-Cob | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo86¢ → 96¢ | $1,163 | +$139 +12% | 29 |
LlamaLoco0000373,300 sharesaenews216,606 sharesTrashbag40,722 shares
i40039,407 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 4¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 4%.