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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200M | 98% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 98¢ · 99¢ (1¢) | — | in 440d |
| $2B | 27% | −1 pts | −2 pts | 25¢ · 29¢ (4¢) | $5.15K | in 440d |
| $1B | 59% | — | −2 pts | 58¢ · 59¢ (1¢) | $1.83K | in 440d |
| $800M | 73% | — | −7 pts | 72¢ · 73¢ (1¢) | $473 | in 440d |
| $3B | 14% | 0 pts | +3 pts | 13¢ · 14¢ (2¢) | $467 | in 440d |
| $5B | 3% | 0 pts | −2 pts | 2¢ · 4¢ (2¢) | $319 | in 440d |
| $300M | 93% | 0 pts | −3 pts | 93¢ · 93¢ (<1¢) | $250 | in 440d |
| $500M | 87% | — | −5 pts | 86¢ · 87¢ (1¢) | $139 | in 440d |
| $4B | 7% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 7¢ · 7¢ (<1¢) | $72 | in 440d |
| $100M | 98% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 98¢ · 98¢ (<1¢) | $14 | in 440d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13h | juicelikeoj2 fills | $1B | BuyYes59¢ | $2,065 | −$18 −0.8% | 7 |
| 2d | eightf | $800M | SellYes72¢ → 73¢ | $1,515 | −$11 −0.7% | — |
| 2d |  gatonekki4 fills | $1B | BuyNo41¢ → 42¢ | $6,650 | +$94 +1.4% | 10 |
| 3d | tryingmyluckhere2 fills | $1B | BuyNo42¢ | $5,724 | −$24 −0.4% | 10 |
| 3d | 1881aa | $4B | SellNo94¢ → 93¢ | $1,384 | +$6 +0.4% | — |
| 4d | lithedge2 fills | $2B | BuyNo74¢ → 73¢ | $3,966 | −$84 −2.1% | 6 |
| 5d | gatonekki | $2B | BuyNo71¢ → 73¢ | $1,000 | +$18 +1.8% | 6 |
| 7d | condorcase | $500M | BuyYes90¢ → 87¢ | $3,690 | −$144 −3.9% | 4 |
| 9d |  alanhutton2 fills | $1B | SellNo47¢ → 42¢ | $4,268 | +$533 +12% | — |
| 9d | Cnmpoli | $500M | SellNo12¢ → 14¢ | $1,181 | −$166 −14% | — |
| 9d | WarriorH | $500M | BuyYes89¢ → 87¢ | $1,480 | −$42 −2.8% | 4 |
| 9d | purpletyoma | $1B | BuyYes65¢ → 59¢ | $3,575 | −$358 −10% | 7 |
| 9d | 336336 | $1B | SellYes63¢ → 59¢ | $5,138 | +$370 +7.2% | — |
| 9d |  manekineko3 fills | $1B | BuyYes63¢ → 59¢ | $15,747 | −$1,109 −7.0% | 7 |
| 9d | manekineko3 fills | $800M | BuyYes76¢ → 73¢ | $13,188 | −$676 −5.1% | 6 |
| 9d | manekineko3 fills | $500M | BuyYes86¢ → 87¢ | $9,988 | +$111 +1.1% | 4 |
| 10d | Premarbet6184 fills | $1B | BuyNo29¢ → 42¢ | $8,794 | +$3,672 +42% | 16 |
| 10d | ShuheX8 | $2B | BuyNo72¢ → 73¢ | $4,900 | +$57 +1.2% | 7 |
| 10d |  cryptodonald89 | $1B | BuyYes64¢ → 59¢ | $2,909 | −$249 −8.6% | 7 |
| 10d |  wahahao | $2B | BuyYes32¢ → 27¢ | $1,282 | −$190 −15% | 8 |
| 10d | 1881aa3 fills | $2B | SellNo71¢ → 73¢ | $3,878 | −$77 −2.0% | — |
| 10d | lee886 | $1B | BuyYes64¢ → 59¢ | $1,000 | −$86 −8.6% | 7 |
| 10d | 336336 | $1B | BuyYes62¢ → 59¢ | $14,579 | −$902 −6.2% | 7 |
| 10d | 0xceecee | $1B | BuyYes61¢ → 59¢ | $2,903 | −$119 −4.1% | 7 |
| 11d | alanhutton | $2B | BuyNo72¢ → 73¢ | $1,077 | +$15 +1.4% | 6 |
| 11d | evohunter | $800M | BuyYes72¢ → 73¢ | $2,381 | +$17 +0.7% | 7 |
| 13d | p1kachu2 fills | $1B | BuyYes63¢ → 59¢ | $3,301 | −$222 −6.7% | 7 |
| 13d |  topblastcapital | $2B | SellYes28¢ → 27¢ | $2,554 | +$97 +3.8% | — |
| 15d | bank2 | $1B | BuyYes60¢ → 59¢ | $4,335 | −$139 −3.2% | 7 |
| 15d | denysi | $1B | BuyYes59¢ | $1,058 | −$16 −1.5% | 7 |
| 18d | purplegatto3 fills | $1B | BuyYes63¢ → 59¢ | $6,266 | −$490 −7.8% | 7 |
| 18d | insiderrzzz3 fills | $1B | SellNo36¢ → 42¢ | $14,809 | −$2,485 −17% | — |
| 19d | jjjclv6 | $100M | BuyYes98¢ | $5,000 | +$0 +0.0% | 2 |
| 19d | Hilarious-Lot | $500M | SellNo16¢ → 14¢ | $1,284 | +$204 +16% | — |
| 20d |  AllByMyseIf4 fills | $800M | BuyNo26¢ → 28¢ | $6,773 | +$319 +4.7% | 16 |
| 20d | AllByMyseIf | $500M | BuyNo17¢ → 14¢ | $2,194 | −$449 −20% | 12 |
| 20d | 12334g | $2B | SellYes30¢ → 27¢ | $1,288 | +$115 +9.0% | — |
| 20d | Frightened-Trainer | $1B | SellYes62¢ → 59¢ | $1,226 | +$62 +5.0% | — |
| 20d | AllByMyseIf | $2B | BuyNo66¢ → 73¢ | $14,149 | +$1,447 +10% | 7 |
| 20d | imjustalarp | $1B | SellYes65¢ → 59¢ | $2,014 | +$201 +10% | — |
| 20d | imjustalarp | $2B | BuyNo66¢ → 73¢ | $2,310 | +$236 +10% | 7 |
| 20d | imjustalarp | $2B | SellYes34¢ → 27¢ | $1,024 | +$206 +20% | — |
| 20d | lucky57 | $100M | BuyYes98¢ | $5,266 | $0 0.0% | 2 |
| 21d | Ivankkkk7 | $1B | BuyYes66¢ → 59¢ | $1,500 | −$170 −11% | 7 |
| 21d |  0xwordjnn | $500M | SellYes84¢ → 87¢ | $2,598 | −$77 −3.0% | — |
| 22d |  wolfofshelbyy | $800M | SellYes76¢ → 73¢ | $2,334 | +$109 +4.7% | — |
| 22d | VARBeliever3 fills | $1B | BuyYes72¢ → 59¢ | $19,497 | −$3,627 −19% | 7 |
| 23d | Normal-Nudge-AlluviumNew account | $1B | BuyYes68¢ → 59¢ | $2,040 | −$285 −14% | 11 |
| 23d | AK4747 | $2B | BuyYes37¢ → 27¢ | $1,095 | −$279 −25% | 6 |
| 23d | jumpsquad2 fills | $2B | BuyYes36¢ → 27¢ | $4,000 | −$991 −25% | 11 |
| 23d | jumpsquad2 fills | $1B | BuyYes68¢ → 59¢ | $20,000 | −$2,832 −14% | 7 |
| 23d |  LucyandDavid | $1B | SellNo31¢ → 42¢ | $1,298 | −$440 −34% | — |
| 23d | Manmansumout | $800M | BuyNo20¢ → 28¢ | $2,530 | +$949 +38% | 12 |
| 23d | Premarbet618 | $800M | BuyNo18¢ → 28¢ | $1,953 | +$1,031 +53% | 11 |
| 23d | GeorgiaTripMoney | $1B | BuyYes77¢ → 59¢ | $2,000 | −$471 −24% | 6 |
| 23d | brick7777 | $1B | BuyYes76¢ → 59¢ | $1,476 | −$340 −23% | 6 |
| 23d | brick7777 | $800M | BuyYes85¢ → 73¢ | $1,492 | −$219 −15% | 5 |
| 23d | 88888888888888888 | $100M | BuyYes99¢ → 98¢ | $1,078 | −$11 −1.0% | 2 |
| 23d | Deep-Hunt-Brother | $500M | SellYes91¢ → 87¢ | $3,083 | +$152 +4.9% | — |
| 23d | LolkaSesder | $800M | BuyYes82¢ → 73¢ | $1,500 | −$172 −11% | 5 |
fleeth2,000 sharesmanekineko1,001 sharesAllByMyseIf2,772 shares
balthazar2,678 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 98¢ for $200M means the market gives it about 98%.