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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 73% | 0 pts | −7 pts | 72¢ · 75¢ (3¢) | — | in 441d |
| June 30, 2027 | 43% | +1 pts | +6 pts | 27¢ · 58¢ (31¢) | — | in 257d |
| December 31, 2026 | 8% | — | −3 pts | 7¢ · 8¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d | insiderrzzz | December 31, 2026 | SellNo89¢ → 93¢ | $6,720 | −$263 −3.9% | — |
| 17d |  elmcap25 fills | Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,688 | +$94 +0.8% | 2 |
| 35d |  SongXiaoFeng | Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,331 | −$20 −1.5% | — |
| 60d | 09876poiu11 fills | Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $21,160 | −$692 −3.3% | — |
| 66d | elmcap23 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo57¢ → 93¢ | $9,732 | +$6,120 +63% | 2 |
| 66d |  twe2nty | June 30, 2027 | BuyNo40¢ → 57¢ | $2,012 | +$881 +44% | 3 |
| 70d | 09876poiu | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes30¢ → 8¢ | $1,484 | −$1,113 −75% | 3 |
| 77d | insiderrzzz | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo61¢ → 93¢ | $5,006 | +$2,585 +52% | 2 |
| 77d | twe2nty | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo61¢ → 93¢ | $3,560 | +$1,838 +52% | 2 |
| 80d |  alanhutton | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo65¢ → 93¢ | $1,299 | +$551 +42% | 2 |
| 80d | hitjnn214 | June 30, 2027 | BuyYes65¢ → 43¢ | $1,056 | −$365 −35% | 2 |
| 87d | zzaqq22 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo42¢ → 93¢ | $3,217 | +$3,842 +119% | 4 |
| 88d |  Decayer2 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellNo71¢ → 93¢ | $3,066 | −$928 −30% | — |
| 107d | MaxEnt | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo38¢ → 93¢ | $3,464 | +$4,968 +143% | 5 |
| 109d |  scout | Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,067 | +$32 +0.2% | 2 |
| 110d |  Writeoff2 fills | Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,779 | +$47 +0.3% | 2 |
| 112d |  Mine-Carrying-Dolphin | December 31, 2026 | SellYes58¢ → 8¢ | $1,120 | +$975 +87% | — |
| 116d | Decayer | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo27¢ → 93¢ | $1,197 | +$2,904 +243% | 3 |
| 117d | 09876poiu5 fills | Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $15,505 | +$4,714 +30% | 2 |
| 125d | 09876poiu3 fills | Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $13,885 | +$225 +1.6% | 2 |
| 143d | gydmasg | Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,393 | +$138 +9.9% | 2 |
| 155d | follow-me-son2 fills | Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? | BuyYes25¢ → 0¢ | $3,364 | −$3,364 −100% | 8 |
| 159d | Mine-Carrying-Dolphin | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes67¢ → 8¢ | $1,054 | −$937 −89% | 2 |
| 200d | tphhh2 fills | Will Arc launch a token by March 31 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,786 | +$12 +0.1% | 2 |
| 221d | mexicola | Will Arc launch a token by March 31 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,286 | +$7 +0.3% | 2 |
| 260d | mocikOJFi | Will Arc launch a token by March 31 2026? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,700 | −$300 −8.1% | — |
| 292d | hellobaguette | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,608 | +$9 +0.1% | 2 |
| 292d | approve-763 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,899 | +$4 +0.2% | 2 |
| 307d | yongen | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,005 | +$10 +1.0% | 2 |
twe2nty137 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 73¢ for December 31, 2027 means the market gives it about 73%.