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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | +1 pts | 0 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | $1.63K | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d | Daviddu08132 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 95¢ | $2,598 | +$154 +5.9% | 27 |
| 7d | wdaa | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo97¢ → 95¢ | $2,870 | −$45 −1.6% | 22 |
| 15d |  WeiXiaoBao007 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo95¢ | $1,062 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 17d |  0xrc15 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 95¢ | $49,540 | +$3,631 +7.3% | 27 |
| 19d | 2475252 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $3,957 | −$98 −2.5% | — |
| 28d | bluemario | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $1,161 | +$18 +1.6% | 24 |
| 28d |  sabsabinxz | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $1,082 | +$21 +1.9% | 24 |
| 30d | moneychen003 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $20,000 | +$353 +1.8% | 24 |
| 40d | justin9999 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo93¢ → 95¢ | $1,535 | +$40 +2.6% | 25 |
| 42d | Rotten-Revitalisation | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $1,297 | +$24 +1.8% | 24 |
| 50d | 0x9da81dc2 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo86¢ → 95¢ | $18,811 | +$2,003 +11% | 29 |
| 61d |  fxwd12345 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $2,840 | −$83 −2.9% | — |
| 66d | terry0116 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $1,034 | −$30 −2.9% | — |
| 78d |  smallpig4 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo89¢ → 95¢ | $40,463 | −$2,777 −6.9% | — |
| 80d | smallpig11 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 95¢ | $22,130 | +$1,324 +6.0% | 27 |
| 80d |  Voyager7A182 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 95¢ | $2,286 | +$103 +4.5% | 26 |
| 83d | Voyager7A18 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $1,333 | −$33 −2.5% | — |
| 88d | th2 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $6,880 | −$191 −2.8% | — |
| 88d | -0-4 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo83¢ → 95¢ | $9,473 | +$1,450 +15% | 32 |
| 90d |  ComingBack | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $1,098 | −$24 −2.2% | — |
| 90d |  zxdfbdfgngcxv | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 95¢ | $1,117 | +$91 +8.2% | 28 |
| 93d |  Whitelied91 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo93¢ → 95¢ | $83,361 | +$1,876 +2.3% | 24 |
| 97d | jin5 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $5,897 | −$95 −1.6% | — |
| 99d | Magnificent-Latex2 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 95¢ | $20,712 | −$1,051 −5.1% | — |
| 103d | D4262 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $53,521 | −$708 −1.3% | — |
| 103d | D4264 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $54,692 | −$582 −1.1% | 22 |
| 104d | Frosty-Slapstick | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $1,761 | −$22 −1.2% | — |
| 107d | xinerxinerxiner2 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 95¢ | $3,432 | +$214 +6.2% | 27 |
| 107d |  GamblingDino | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo93¢ → 95¢ | $3,480 | +$90 +2.6% | 25 |
| 109d | EDCJointAccount | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo90¢ → 95¢ | $1,800 | −$108 −6.0% | — |
| 110d | callmeabunny | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 95¢ | $1,375 | −$62 −4.5% | — |
| 117d |  xxiang.319 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo92¢ → 95¢ | $1,043 | −$40 −3.8% | — |
| 124d | bigbluejay | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo89¢ → 95¢ | $1,551 | −$112 −7.2% | — |
| 124d | jkjkjkljkl2 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo92¢ → 95¢ | $4,946 | −$207 −4.2% | — |
| 124d | andy8844 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo92¢ → 95¢ | $2,720 | −$89 −3.3% | — |
| 126d | lion449 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo89¢ → 95¢ | $1,185 | −$81 −6.8% | — |
| 127d | jkjkjkljkl | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 95¢ | $4,919 | +$234 +4.8% | 26 |
| 127d |  MEPP | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo90¢ → 95¢ | $1,445 | −$85 −5.9% | — |
| 128d | koalallllll2 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo89¢ → 95¢ | $2,576 | −$197 −7.7% | — |
| 136d |  ColdConviction | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 95¢ | $1,304 | −$63 −4.8% | — |
| 139d | tony901252 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ → 95¢ | $4,129 | +$566 +14% | 31 |
| 142d | UMAENJOYER7 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo88¢ → 95¢ | $10,306 | −$846 −8.2% | — |
| 146d | bablakaka | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo92¢ → 95¢ | $1,178 | −$44 −3.7% | — |
| 158d | Jam-Packed-Constitution | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo87¢ → 95¢ | $9,340 | −$909 −9.7% | — |
| 162d | Rectangular-Audit | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo90¢ → 95¢ | $2,011 | −$132 −6.6% | — |
| 163d | 0x9da81dc | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 95¢ | $1,183 | −$57 −4.8% | — |
| 165d | TaipeiHarden | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo90¢ → 95¢ | $1,084 | −$61 −5.6% | — |
| 169d | jin5 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 95¢ | $5,696 | +$296 +5.2% | 26 |
| 172d | LBZone2 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 95¢ | $4,335 | −$210 −4.8% | — |
| 172d | lava-lava | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo90¢ → 95¢ | $2,000 | −$120 −6.0% | — |
| 177d | Gloriasissi5 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 95¢ | $11,914 | +$1,023 +8.6% | 28 |
| 181d | Diligent-Scenario | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo88¢ → 95¢ | $1,232 | −$104 −8.4% | — |
| 182d | Gipa | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo88¢ → 95¢ | $15,851 | −$1,276 −8.1% | — |
| 182d | Fkbi | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo89¢ → 95¢ | $3,877 | −$279 −7.2% | — |
| 184d | Rough-Passive2 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 95¢ | $12,743 | +$978 +7.7% | 29 |
| 186d | Hiworld. | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellYes12¢ → 5¢ | $1,785 | +$1,101 +62% | — |
| 191d | serkano | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyYes15¢ → 5¢ | $1,724 | −$1,206 −70% | 44 |
| 197d | po185033 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SellNo85¢ → 95¢ | $14,209 | −$1,681 −12% | — |
| 197d | koalallllll | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 95¢ | $1,694 | +$142 +8.4% | 28 |
| 198d | UMAENJOYER3 fills | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ → 95¢ | $8,908 | +$1,256 +14% | 31 |
LlamaLoco0000110,421 shares
aenews237,126 shares0xrc123,226 sharesWhitelied91100,179 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 5¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 5%.