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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $400M | 85% | +1 pts | +5 pts | 84¢ · 86¢ (2¢) | $11.4K | in 441d |
| $500M | 79% | +1 pts | +4 pts | 78¢ · 80¢ (2¢) | $7.58K | in 441d |
| $800M | 54% | −2 pts | +2 pts | 53¢ · 55¢ (2¢) | $4.97K | in 441d |
| $100M | 94% | −1 pts | 0 pts | 94¢ · 95¢ (1¢) | $3.51K | in 441d |
| $1B | 43% | −2 pts | +7 pts | 42¢ · 43¢ (1¢) | $1.52K | in 441d |
| $2B | 21% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 21¢ · 22¢ (1¢) | $1.35K | in 441d |
| $200M | 93% | −2 pts | +2 pts | 92¢ · 93¢ (1¢) | $652 | in 441d |
| $300M | 88% | −2 pts | +2 pts | 87¢ · 88¢ (1¢) | $455 | in 441d |
| $50M | 98% | 0 pts | +2 pts | 98¢ · 98¢ (<1¢) | $215 | in 441d |
| $600M | 70% | −1 pts | +3 pts | 68¢ · 72¢ (4¢) | $177 | in 441d |
| $1.5B | 26% | −2 pts | +1 pts | 25¢ · 27¢ (2¢) | $67.6 | in 441d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10h |  alphaalii7 fills | $400M | BuyYes78¢ → 85¢ | $24,862 | +$2,258 +9.1% | 6 |
| 10h | alphaalii7 fills | $500M | BuyYes64¢ → 79¢ | $15,178 | +$3,548 +23% | 7 |
| 10h | alphaalii5 fills | $800M | BuyYes41¢ → 54¢ | $9,484 | +$2,957 +31% | 11 |
| 21h |  Crypto-brave | $100M | SellYes95¢ → 94¢ | $1,796 | +$17 +0.9% | — |
| 1d | mandy-cool-down | $2B | BuyNo80¢ → 79¢ | $1,000 | −$10 −1.0% | 5 |
| 3d |  littlepig | $400M | BuyYes87¢ → 85¢ | $4,706 | −$103 −2.2% | 4 |
| 3d | alphaalii2 fills | $300M | BuyYes89¢ → 88¢ | $5,090 | −$112 −2.2% | 4 |
| 4d |  blgggggg | $100M | BuyYes97¢ → 94¢ | $1,164 | −$32 −2.8% | 3 |
| 4d | mefirofan | $2B | BuyNo80¢ → 79¢ | $1,029 | −$17 −1.6% | 5 |
| 4d |  Decayer | $1B | SellNo56¢ → 57¢ | $1,097 | −$32 −2.9% | — |
| 5d |  ComingBack | $600M | SellNo24¢ → 30¢ | $1,062 | −$262 −25% | — |
| 5d | emffg | $300M | BuyYes87¢ → 88¢ | $1,972 | +$11 +0.6% | 4 |
| 7d |  alanhutton | $2B | BuyNo80¢ → 79¢ | $1,598 | −$24 −1.5% | 5 |
| 8d | halulula | $50M | SellYes96¢ → 98¢ | $1,056 | −$24 −2.3% | — |
| 9d | dsfsdffsd | $2B | BuyNo80¢ → 79¢ | $2,762 | −$45 −1.6% | 5 |
| 9d | deltasniper | $2B | BuyNo80¢ → 79¢ | $3,120 | −$51 −1.6% | 5 |
| 9d | vntr | $1.5B | BuyNo75¢ → 74¢ | $1,005 | −$15 −1.5% | 6 |
| 10d |  donmaximi | $2B | BuyNo80¢ → 79¢ | $2,000 | −$32 −1.6% | 5 |
| 10d |  xart | $1B | SellNo62¢ → 57¢ | $1,055 | +$82 +7.8% | — |
| 10d | 999ssf | $100M | BuyYes94¢ | $7,478 | +$24 +0.3% | 3 |
| 10d | alanhutton | $1.5B | BuyNo73¢ → 74¢ | $1,095 | +$14 +1.2% | 7 |
| 10d | Decayer | $800M | BuyNo50¢ → 46¢ | $1,023 | −$82 −8.0% | 6 |
| 10d | StannlyGo | $1.5B | BuyNo73¢ → 74¢ | $1,022 | +$13 +1.3% | 7 |
| 10d |  Tjingbin | $50M | SellYes96¢ → 98¢ | $1,216 | −$25 −2.1% | — |
| 11d | zj2222 | $1.5B | BuyNo72¢ → 74¢ | $1,516 | +$40 +2.7% | 7 |
| 11d | userol | $2B | BuyNo80¢ → 79¢ | $4,277 | −$69 −1.6% | 5 |
| 11d |  DancewithRisk | $800M | BuyNo50¢ → 46¢ | $1,015 | −$81 −8.0% | 6 |
| 11d | alphaalii2 fills | $600M | BuyYes70¢ | $2,573 | +$17 +0.7% | 7 |
| 11d | SeniorLaghetto2 fills | $100M | BuyYes88¢ → 94¢ | $3,077 | +$236 +7.7% | 4 |
| 12d |  marketside2 fills | $50M | SellYes82¢ → 98¢ | $3,825 | −$770 −20% | — |
| 20d | suntori | $50M | BuyYes85¢ → 98¢ | $2,252 | +$347 +15% | 5 |
| 23d | anlp | $200M | SellYes78¢ → 93¢ | $1,053 | −$196 −19% | — |
| 24d |  -Yang- | $300M | BuyYes68¢ → 88¢ | $5,086 | +$1,459 +29% | 7 |
| 24d | -Yang-2 fills | $200M | BuyYes74¢ → 93¢ | $15,605 | +$3,772 +24% | 6 |
| 24d | Mayday2 | $300M | BuyYes68¢ → 88¢ | $1,360 | +$390 +29% | 7 |
| 24d | Askingo | $200M | BuyYes74¢ → 93¢ | $1,127 | +$282 +25% | 6 |
| 24d | Askingo | $300M | BuyYes66¢ → 88¢ | $1,612 | +$525 +33% | 7 |
| 24d | clocksq | $1B | SellNo72¢ → 57¢ | $1,026 | +$211 +21% | — |
| 24d | ploski | $1B | SellNo72¢ → 57¢ | $1,085 | +$223 +21% | — |
| 26d | Zzzz872 fills | $50M | BuyYes85¢ → 98¢ | $4,240 | +$665 +16% | 5 |
| 26d | Dokkl | $300M | BuyYes65¢ → 88¢ | $1,130 | +$391 +35% | 7 |
| 31d | iceiceice123 | $400M | SellYes52¢ → 85¢ | $1,042 | −$658 −63% | — |
| 31d |  Bulan | $300M | BuyNo38¢ → 13¢ | $1,301 | −$873 −67% | 8 |
| 31d | reclaim-defiling-grumbly | $400M | SellYes52¢ → 85¢ | $1,026 | −$667 −65% | — |
| 38d | Boiling-Dame2 fills | $400M | SellYes49¢ → 85¢ | $6,569 | −$4,749 −72% | — |
| 39d | Dokkl | $400M | BuyYes55¢ → 85¢ | $1,151 | +$628 +55% | 4 |
| 40d | Failing-Challenge4 fills | $300M | SellYes61¢ → 88¢ | $12,718 | −$5,484 −43% | — |
| 40d | dsdfsfds | $300M | SellNo36¢ → 13¢ | $2,052 | +$1,341 +65% | — |
| 40d | dsdfsfds | $200M | SellNo29¢ → 7¢ | $1,761 | +$1,306 +74% | — |
| 40d | dsdfsfds | $400M | SellNo45¢ → 15¢ | $3,623 | +$2,415 +67% | — |
| 40d | dsdfsfds | $600M | SellNo60¢ → 30¢ | $2,322 | +$1,161 +50% | — |
| 40d | dsdfsfds | $500M | SellNo51¢ → 21¢ | $6,001 | +$3,530 +59% | — |
| 43d | Bulan | $800M | BuyNo66¢ → 46¢ | $3,700 | −$1,133 −31% | 7 |
| 45d | ck4 | $500M | SellYes49¢ → 79¢ | $1,376 | −$842 −61% | — |
| 46d | Failing-Challenge2 fills | $200M | SellYes69¢ → 93¢ | $7,866 | −$2,606 −33% | — |
| 48d | Saffroncrypto | $600M | SellYes46¢ → 70¢ | $1,301 | −$699 −54% | — |
| 51d | dxy09 | $400M | SellYes57¢ → 85¢ | $2,872 | −$1,410 −49% | — |
| 51d | dxy09 | $300M | SellYes64¢ → 88¢ | $4,638 | −$1,717 −37% | — |
| 56d | pengulover344 | $50M | SellYes88¢ → 98¢ | $2,625 | −$318 −12% | — |
| 56d | Boiling-Dame | $300M | SellYes65¢ → 88¢ | $5,247 | −$1,819 −35% | — |
alphaalii49,030 shares
Nomorepredict10,006 shareslittlepig5,573 shares
one8tyfive25,000 shares
DavidTrezeguet15,000 shares
MossadAgent9910,000 shares
TruongMyLan8,138 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 85¢ for $400M means the market gives it about 85%.