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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 12% | +1 pts | — | 11¢ · 12¢ (1¢) | $2.71K | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d |  Parz1vaI2 fills | December 31 | SellNo77¢ → 89¢ | $10,167 | −$1,557 −15% | — |
| 6d | StudentMoney9 fills | December 31 | SellNo72¢ → 89¢ | $32,029 | −$7,443 −23% | — |
| 11d | purplegatto | December 31 | BuyNo89¢ | $1,335 | −$8 −0.6% | 27 |
| 11d | thoodr | December 31 | BuyNo88¢ → 89¢ | $1,320 | +$8 +0.6% | 28 |
| 14d | LulaVaiPerder2 fills | December 31 | SellNo87¢ → 89¢ | $8,653 | −$198 −2.3% | — |
| 14d | Renan2030 | December 31 | SellNo89¢ | $4,363 | +$44 +1.0% | — |
| 14d | Pumpmaster | December 31 | SellYes10¢ → 12¢ | $1,363 | −$177 −13% | — |
| 14d | Metadong2020 | December 31 | SellYes11¢ → 12¢ | $1,150 | −$16 −1.4% | — |
| 14d | Ash14kd | December 31 | SellYes13¢ → 12¢ | $1,308 | +$108 +8.2% | — |
| 15d |  zthunderfury2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 89¢ | $7,513 | +$837 +11% | 34 |
| 15d |  TruongMyLan | December 31 | SellNo84¢ → 89¢ | $3,788 | −$194 −5.1% | — |
| 16d | Jan777 | December 31 | SellNo85¢ → 89¢ | $1,439 | −$59 −4.1% | — |
| 18d | Kevindoto2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo55¢ → 89¢ | $10,937 | +$6,763 +62% | 40 |
| 20d | Renan2030 | December 31 | BuyNo85¢ → 89¢ | $4,150 | +$169 +4.1% | 30 |
| 20d |  MisTKy | December 31 | BuyNo84¢ → 89¢ | $3,341 | +$179 +5.4% | 31 |
| 21d | teamflywheel | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 89¢ | $1,030 | −$68 −6.6% | — |
| 24d | Scoofy-Bubik | December 31 | BuyNo86¢ → 89¢ | $1,505 | +$44 +2.9% | 29 |
| 24d | KiernanMeister | December 31 | SellNo85¢ → 89¢ | $2,550 | −$105 −4.1% | — |
| 28d |  coastalgusts | December 31 | SellNo84¢ → 89¢ | $2,954 | −$144 −4.9% | — |
| 37d | StoneMarble2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 89¢ | $8,080 | +$546 +6.8% | 31 |
| 40d | 0x84d4…77a9 | December 31 | SellNo86¢ → 89¢ | $1,118 | −$33 −2.9% | — |
| 43d |  eightpenguins | December 31 | SellYes14¢ → 12¢ | $1,192 | +$213 +18% | — |
| 47d | jyPoz | December 31 | SellNo85¢ → 89¢ | $1,943 | −$80 −4.1% | — |
| 49d |  paddaa6 fills | December 31 | SellNo72¢ → 89¢ | $10,474 | −$2,432 −23% | — |
| 50d |  SUPERNOVA- | December 31 | SellNo84¢ → 89¢ | $1,008 | −$54 −5.4% | — |
| 53d |  mewmew1 | December 31 | SellNo82¢ → 89¢ | $1,541 | −$122 −7.9% | — |
| 53d | Parz1vaI4 fills | December 31 | BuyNo75¢ → 89¢ | $19,030 | +$3,389 +18% | 37 |
| 57d | alwaysOn5 fills | December 31 | BuyNo77¢ → 89¢ | $11,082 | +$1,648 +15% | 35 |
| 58d | whig | December 31 | SellYes17¢ → 12¢ | $1,560 | +$505 +32% | — |
| 59d | alwaysOn3 fills | December 31 | SellNo76¢ → 89¢ | $3,332 | −$527 −16% | — |
| 60d |  Car | December 31 | BuyNo82¢ → 89¢ | $1,640 | +$130 +7.9% | 32 |
| 62d | Tenk1994 | December 31 | BuyNo82¢ → 89¢ | $1,230 | +$98 +7.9% | 32 |
| 63d | StudentMoney5 fills | December 31 | BuyNo71¢ → 89¢ | $15,225 | +$3,634 +24% | 39 |
| 65d | 0xfc91…31eb | December 31 | SellNo80¢ → 89¢ | $1,000 | −$106 −11% | — |
| 70d | TruongMyLan2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo77¢ → 89¢ | $3,475 | +$507 +15% | 35 |
| 70d |  Outsid3rTrading | December 31 | BuyNo79¢ → 89¢ | $7,724 | +$929 +12% | 34 |
| 70d |  ImJustKen3 fills | December 31 | BuyNo76¢ → 89¢ | $21,479 | +$3,684 +17% | 36 |
| 71d | apmt3 fills | December 31 | BuyNo73¢ → 89¢ | $7,665 | +$1,628 +21% | 38 |
| 74d | Parz1vaI | December 31 | BuyYes25¢ → 12¢ | $1,688 | −$911 −54% | 42 |
| 76d | Angry-Trolley | December 31 | SellNo75¢ → 89¢ | $1,697 | −$305 −18% | — |
| 77d | skibabiba | December 31 | BuyNo75¢ → 89¢ | $1,434 | +$258 +18% | 37 |
| 77d |  Yirmeyahu | December 31 | SellNo72¢ → 89¢ | $5,184 | −$1,188 −23% | — |
| 79d | Yirmeyahu3 fills | December 31 | BuyNo71¢ → 89¢ | $5,054 | +$1,230 +24% | 39 |
| 84d | mewmew1 | December 31 | BuyNo67¢ → 89¢ | $1,796 | +$576 +32% | 40 |
| 84d | Laurenman2 fills | December 31 | SellNo66¢ → 89¢ | $3,562 | −$1,214 −34% | — |
| 92d | BlindAndDeaf | December 31 | BuyNo69¢ → 89¢ | $1,500 | +$412 +27% | 40 |
| 93d |  aenews2 | December 31 | BuyYes31¢ → 12¢ | $1,088 | −$684 −63% | 40 |
| 93d | Car | December 31 | BuyYes35¢ → 12¢ | $2,248 | −$1,508 −67% | 42 |
| 93d |  mombil | December 31 | BuyYes31¢ → 12¢ | $1,002 | −$630 −63% | 40 |
| 93d |  WarriorPooh | December 31 | BuyYes30¢ → 12¢ | $1,588 | −$979 −62% | 42 |
| 94d | csv262 fills | December 31 | BuyYes32¢ → 12¢ | $3,500 | −$2,261 −65% | 44 |
| 95d |  peterfromfamilyguy | December 31 | SellYes27¢ → 12¢ | $1,375 | +$783 +57% | — |
| 95d |  de5nuts2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes29¢ → 12¢ | $2,994 | −$1,816 −61% | 44 |
| 96d | LulaVaiPerder | December 31 | BuyNo74¢ → 89¢ | $6,289 | +$1,238 +20% | 37 |
| 96d | silent | December 31 | BuyNo73¢ → 89¢ | $1,460 | +$310 +21% | 38 |
| 97d |  pugdev | December 31 | SellNo69¢ → 89¢ | $2,918 | −$824 −28% | — |
| 99d | pugdev | December 31 | BuyNo67¢ → 89¢ | $1,845 | +$592 +32% | 40 |
| 101d |  LlamaLoco00002 fills | December 31 | BuyYes38¢ → 12¢ | $2,812 | −$1,969 −70% | 42 |
| 102d | placerv22 fills | December 31 | BuyNo56¢ → 89¢ | $4,520 | +$2,633 +58% | 40 |
| 102d | LupedeZh | December 31 | SellYes34¢ → 12¢ | $2,925 | +$1,944 +66% | — |
de5nuts44,659 sharesaenews212,406 shares
Anjun32,744 sharesParz1vaI17,852 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 12¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 12%.