| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 19,290 | 56¢ → 89¢ | $17,071 | +$6,200 +57% |
| Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Ends in 17d | No | 2,687 | 74¢ → 77¢ | $2,056 | +$78 +3.9% |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?Ends in 75d | No | 2,038 | 46¢ → 89¢ | $1,804 | +$857 +90% |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Ends in 135d | Yes | 1,914 | 72¢ → 80¢ | $1,522 | +$138 +10.0% |
| Will Democrats win exactly 8 House seats in Texas in the 2026 midterm elections?Ends in 17d | No | 1,499 | 91¢ → 99¢ | $1,482 | +$118 +8.6% |
| US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 1,000 | 78¢ → 96¢ | $955 | +$177 +23% |
| Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 807 | 90¢ → 97¢ | $786 | +$60 +8.2% |
| Will Michigan Make the 2026-27 CFB Playoffs?Ends ended | No | 725 | 75¢ → 95¢ | $687 | +$144 +26% |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 671 | 82¢ → 93¢ | $624 | +$72 +13% |
| Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?Ends ended | No | 612 | 73¢ → 99¢ | $605 | +$157 +35% |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 3,025 | 11¢ → 19¢ | $560 | +$213 +61% |
| Will Democrats win exactly 10 House seats in New Jersey in the 2026 midterm elections?Ends in 17d | No | 1,784 | 31¢ → 30¢ | $535 | −$10 −1.8% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MN-08 House seat?Ends in 17d | No | 577 | 79¢ → 88¢ | $505 | +$48 +11% |
| Will the Republican Party win the MN-01 House seat?Ends in 17d | Yes | 577 | 75¢ → 75¢ | $430 | −$3 −0.7% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election by 30% or more?Ends in 17d | Yes | 759 | 20¢ → 56¢ | $421 | +$271 +181% |
| Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?Ends in 91d | No | 501 | 63¢ → 78¢ | $390 | +$73 +23% |
| Will the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat?Ends in 17d | Yes | 436 | 83¢ → 85¢ | $368 | +$7 +1.8% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,401 | 45¢ → 14¢ | $348 | −$732 −68% |
| Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?Ends in 17d | No | 427 | 39¢ → 81¢ | $346 | +$179 +108% |
| Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Ends in 17d | No | 349 | 35¢ → 95¢ | $332 | +$210 +171% |
| Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 182d | No | 335 | 74¢ → 94¢ | $315 | +$68 +27% |
| Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat?Ends in 17d | Yes | 384 | 82¢ → 82¢ | $315 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-02 House seat?Ends in 17d | No | 342 | 83¢ → 86¢ | $292 | +$9 +3.0% |
| Will Daniel Wong win the 2026 Fort Bend County Judge election?Ends in 17d | Yes | 1,713 | 10¢ → 17¢ | $283 | +$118 +72% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-01 House election by 55% or more?Ends in 17d | No | 261 | 78¢ → 97¢ | $253 | +$48 +23% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-01 House election by 50%-55%?Ends in 17d | No | 248 | 87¢ → 94¢ | $232 | +$16 +7.3% |
| Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 370 | 47¢ → 63¢ | $231 | +$59 +34% |
| US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,286 | 15¢ → 10¢ | $217 | −$127 −37% |
| Will José Maria Neves win the Cape Verde presidential election?Ends in 29d | No | 1,234 | 22¢ → 16¢ | $197 | −$76 −28% |
| No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 10d | No | 283 | 14¢ → 70¢ | $197 | +$157 +396% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Jersey Senate election by 21% or more?Ends in 17d | Yes | 384 | 42¢ → 50¢ | $192 | +$32 +20% |
| Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 256d | Yes | 334 | 75¢ → 56¢ | $189 | −$61 −24% |
| RFK Jr. Out by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 215 | 52¢ → 86¢ | $184 | +$73 +65% |
| Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?Ends in 91d | Yes | 255 | 57¢ → 72¢ | $184 | +$39 +27% |
| Will the Republican Party win the MN-06 House seat?Ends in 17d | Yes | 192 | 82¢ → 95¢ | $183 | +$26 +16% |
| Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Ends in 21d | No | 391 | 31¢ → 46¢ | $178 | +$55 +45% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election by 18% or more?Ends in 17d | No | 168 | 86¢ → 95¢ | $160 | +$15 +11% |
| Todd Blanche disbarred or suspended in NY in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 162 | 81¢ → 97¢ | $158 | +$26 +20% |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas be between 1,100,000 and 1,200,000?Ends in 17d | No | 200 | 44¢ → 79¢ | $157 | +$69 +78% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-05 House election by 55% or more?Ends in 17d | No | 158 | 82¢ → 99¢ | $156 | +$26 +20% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 856 | 27¢ → 18¢ | $154 | −$77 −33% |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-08 House election by 35% or more?Ends in 17d | No | 158 | 81¢ → 95¢ | $150 | +$22 +17% |
| Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,996 | 14¢ → 7¢ | $142 | −$130 −48% |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oklahoma be 1,400,000 or more?Ends in 17d | No | 154 | 80¢ → 90¢ | $138 | +$15 +12% |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Ends in 75d | No | 468 | 82¢ → 25¢ | $117 | −$266 −69% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 732 | 15¢ → 14¢ | $102 | −$5 −4.9% |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?Ends in 17d | No | 115 | 83¢ → 89¢ | $102 | +$7 +7.2% |
| Will "Fatherland" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Ends in 95d | No | 100 | 87¢ → 94¢ | $94 | +$7 +8.2% |
| Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 256d | Yes | 328 | 47¢ → 28¢ | $92 | −$64 −41% |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?Ends in 147d | Yes | 154 | 41¢ → 59¢ | $90 | +$27 +43% |
| Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?Ends in 17d | No | 164 | 78¢ → 53¢ | $87 | −$41 −32% |
| Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?Ends in 256d | Yes | 439 | 47¢ → 19¢ | $84 | −$123 −59% |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?Ends in 17d | No | 115 | 58¢ → 73¢ | $83 | +$17 +25% |
| Will Dune: Part Three win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?Ends in 147d | Yes | 314 | 11¢ → 25¢ | $79 | +$42 +118% |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada be between 1,125,000 and 1,200,000?Ends in 17d | No | 128 | 56¢ → 56¢ | $72 | +$0 +0.3% |
| Will the Republican Party win the CO-08 House seat?Ends in 17d | Yes | 467 | 15¢ → 16¢ | $72 | +$2 +3.3% |
| Will Pedro Pascal be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?Ends in 95d | No | 77 | 50¢ → 83¢ | $64 | +$26 +67% |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?Ends in 147d | Yes | 294 | 20¢ → 22¢ | $63 | +$6 +9.8% |
| Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?Ends in 17d | Yes | 100 | 56¢ → 63¢ | $63 | +$7 +12% |
| Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 179 | 48¢ → 34¢ | $61 | −$25 −29% |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-21 House election by 30% or more?Ends in 17d | No | 60 | 75¢ → 98¢ | $59 | +$14 +31% |
| Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Ends in 17d | No | 57 | 90¢ → 97¢ | $55 | +$4 +7.1% |
| Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?Ends in 256d | Yes | 279 | 27¢ → 18¢ | $49 | −$27 −35% |
| Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?Ends in 17d | Yes | 187 | 34¢ → 25¢ | $46 | −$18 −28% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-08 House election by 0%-3%?Ends in 17d | Yes | 254 | 11¢ → 18¢ | $45 | +$18 +69% |
| Will Democrats win exactly 47 House seats in California in the 2026 midterm elections?Ends in 17d | No | 48 | 71¢ → 88¢ | $42 | +$8 +24% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-03 House election by 18% or more?Ends in 17d | No | 40 | 83¢ → 98¢ | $39 | +$6 +18% |
| Will Republicans sweep the Iowa Senate and Governor elections?Ends in 17d | Yes | 370 | 25¢ → 11¢ | $39 | −$54 −58% |
| Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election?Ends in 17d | No | 1,093 | 2¢ → 4¢ | $38 | +$13 +49% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | Yes | 279 | 31¢ → 14¢ | $38 | −$50 −57% |
| Will Republicans sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?Ends in 17d | Yes | 264 | 22¢ → 14¢ | $37 | −$22 −38% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-03 House election by 12%-15%?Ends in 17d | No | 40 | 89¢ → 87¢ | $35 | −$1 −2.4% |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 633 | 12¢ → 5¢ | $34 | −$44 −57% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 55 | 0¢ → 60¢ | $33 | +$33 +0.0% |
| Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 299 | 4¢ → 10¢ | $30 | +$19 +162% |
| Will Dune: Part Three win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards?Ends in 256d | Yes | 153 | 16¢ → 19¢ | $28 | +$4 +16% |
| Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 173 | 33¢ → 16¢ | $27 | −$30 −53% |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 837 | 10¢ → 3¢ | $23 | −$58 −71% |
| Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 House seat?Ends in 17d | Yes | 228 | 16¢ → 10¢ | $23 | −$14 −37% |
| Will the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian Senate election?Ends in 91d | Yes | 304 | 11¢ → 7¢ | $22 | −$12 −35% |
| Will Minerva Torres Shelton win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election?Ends in 17d | Yes | 730 | 2¢ → 3¢ | $21 | +$4 +26% |
| Will Ruben Gallego vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Ends in 76d | Yes | 308 | 16¢ → 6¢ | $19 | −$30 −61% |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-10 House election by 6% or more?Ends in 17d | Yes | 126 | 14¢ → 14¢ | $17 | −$1 −4.2% |
| Will Democrats win 9 or more House seats in Virginia in the 2026 midterm elections?Ends in 17d | Yes | 61 | 7¢ → 26¢ | $16 | +$11 +264% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 192 | 17¢ → 8¢ | $15 | −$17 −52% |
| Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 16 | 71¢ → 92¢ | $15 | +$3 +29% |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Vermont Lieutenant Governor election?Ends in 16d | Yes | 187 | 13¢ → 8¢ | $14 | −$10 −42% |
| Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?Ends in 76d | Yes | 231 | 46¢ → 5¢ | $12 | −$94 −89% |
| Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 30 | 23¢ → 38¢ | $11 | +$4 +61% |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Ends in 75d | No | 1,189 | 4¢ → 1¢ | $11 | −$35 −76% |
| Will Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Ends in 17d | Yes | 357 | 5¢ → 3¢ | $11 | −$6 −36% |
| Will Jerry Moran vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Ends in 76d | Yes | 64 | 29¢ → 8¢ | $5 | −$14 −74% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IN-01 House election by 30% or more?Ends in 17d | Yes | 166 | 32¢ → 3¢ | $5 | −$49 −92% |
| Will Republicans win the Michigan Governor election and Democrats win the Michigan Senate election?Ends in 17d | Yes | 125 | 74¢ → 4¢ | $5 | −$88 −95% |
| Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 72 | 13¢ → 5¢ | $4 | −$6 −62% |
| Will there be 5 or fewer UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 434 | 21¢ → 1¢ | $2 | −$89 −97% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-01 House election by 45%-50%?Ends in 17d | No | 3 | 60¢ → 76¢ | $2 | +$0 +27% |
| Will Concepción Sánchez González win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?Ends in 232d | Yes | 802 | <1¢ → <1¢ | $2 | −$1 −37% |
| Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 693 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$82 −100% |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,538 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$468 −100% |
