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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Fauci | 7% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 7¢ · 7¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Gavin Newsom | 2% | — | 0 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | — | in 75d |
| Barack Obama | 2% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 75d |
| James Comey | 9% | — | 0 pts | 9¢ · 9¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Adam Schiff | 3% | — | 0 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 75d |
| James Clapper | 6% | +1 pts | — | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Joe Biden | 1% | — | — | 1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Letitia James | 5% | — | — | 5¢ · 5¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Loretta Lynch | 3% | — | 0 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Bill Clinton | 1% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Mahmoud Khalil | 18% | — | +3 pts | 16¢ · 20¢ (4¢) | — | in 75d |
| Lisa Cook | 4% | — | — | 4¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 7% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 7¢ · 7¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Brandon Johnson | 9% | — | −2 pts | 7¢ · 10¢ (3¢) | — | in 75d |
| Pam Bondi | 6% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 5¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Susan Rice | 6% | — | −6 pts | 4¢ · 7¢ (3¢) | — | in 75d |
| John Brennan | 23% | +3 pts | +3 pts | 22¢ · 24¢ (2¢) | $2.01K | in 75d |
| Kash Patel | 2% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | — | in 75d |
| Hillary Clinton | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $548 | in 75d |
| John Kerry | 1% | — | — | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Candace Owens | 5% | −1 pts | −2 pts | <1¢ · 10¢ (10¢) | — | in 75d |
| Tom Homan | 7% | 0 pts | −3 pts | 6¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | $120 | in 75d |
| Lee Jun-seok | 16% | +6 pts | +5 pts | 11¢ · 21¢ (10¢) | $40 | in 75d |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | 4% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | $18.7 | in 75d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h |  paddaa | John Brennan | SellNo78¢ → 77¢ | $1,012 | +$19 +1.8% | — |
| 3d |  DFK2 fills | Hillary Clinton | SellNo97¢ | $2,989 | −$19 −0.6% | — |
| 24d | DFK | Anthony Fauci | SellNo92¢ → 93¢ | $6,828 | −$67 −1.0% | — |
| 53d | Jjw | Anthony Fauci | SellNo89¢ → 93¢ | $3,976 | −$170 −4.3% | — |
| 57d |  DEGENKHAN | Joe Biden | BuyNo98¢ → 99¢ | $1,214 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 61d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | John Brennan | BuyNo72¢ → 77¢ | $1,096 | +$72 +6.5% | 38 |
| 63d | DFK | Anthony Fauci | BuyNo88¢ → 93¢ | $1,760 | +$98 +5.6% | 20 |
| 75d | 0x6fc8…d0db2 fills | Anthony Fauci | SellNo88¢ → 93¢ | $2,956 | −$153 −5.2% | — |
| 75d |  Belgaron | Anthony Fauci | BuyNo89¢ → 93¢ | $2,667 | +$120 +4.5% | 20 |
| 76d | Sniveling-Passion | Anthony Fauci | BuyNo88¢ → 93¢ | $1,752 | +$106 +6.0% | 20 |
| 76d | KiernanMeister | John Brennan | BuyYes28¢ → 23¢ | $1,285 | −$213 −17% | 41 |
| 76d | KiernanMeister | Anthony Fauci | BuyYes12¢ → 7¢ | $1,026 | −$439 −43% | 20 |
| 83d |  FortunatelyFestive | Gavin Newsom | SellNo95¢ → 98¢ | $1,158 | −$32 −2.7% | — |
| 108d | DFK2 fills | Gavin Newsom | BuyNo94¢ → 98¢ | $2,979 | +$114 +3.8% | 20 |
| 158d | Fineeeeee | Tom Homan | BuyNo76¢ → 93¢ | $1,875 | +$430 +23% | 36 |
| 164d | FortunatelyFestive | Gavin Newsom | BuyNo90¢ → 98¢ | $1,097 | +$93 +8.4% | 20 |
HoneybeeAlliance45,800 shares
macrosteaks2,363 shares
ImJustKen2,197 shares
Filobestia16,599 sharesBelgaron9,179 sharesDFK8,805 shares
LA172,500 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 7¢ for Anthony Fauci means the market gives it about 7%.