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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 340-359 | 100% | +72 pts | +96 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | $82.2K | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −4 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | 0 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −4 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −23 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −31 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −28 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −25 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −29 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −11 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | $108K | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | −3 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | $51.1K | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | $7.37K | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | $344 | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | $103 | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | $103 | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | $103 | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | $103 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20h |  Espagan | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,092 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 20h |  1000Usdt | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,342 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 20h | Actual-Ladle | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,553 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 21h | RootWoot | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,010 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 21h | faffafafa | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,656 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 21h | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,942 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 21h |  AndreaPirlo4 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $11,084 | +$70 +0.6% | 20 |
| 21h |  Mei-ji | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 21h | cool.guide | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 21h | ym-mzt1 | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,074 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 21h | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,426 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 21h |  y111m11 | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,801 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 21h | Baristas2 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,688 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 21h | Baristas2 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,071 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 21h | Chepaik | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,838 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 21h | Actual-Ladle2 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,430 | +$128 +2.9% | 21 |
| 21h | livepo1y | 360-379 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,530 | +$23 +1.5% | 21 |
| 21h |  Gustav4-1 | 340-359 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,349 | +$29 +2.1% | 21 |
| 21h | Chepaik2 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,362 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 22h | faffafafa | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,595 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 22h |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,491 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 23h | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 380-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,334 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 1d | dddtrips | 340-359 | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,478 | +$637 +43% | 31 |
| 1d | livepo1y | 380-399 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,934 | +$33 +1.7% | 21 |
| 1d | welcometowinnercircle7 fills | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $86,048 | +$120 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d |  upont | 420-439 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,683 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 1d | faffafafa | 380-399 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,063 | +$19 +1.8% | 21 |
| 1d | jiuchuanplus | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,144 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 1d | Eulaliabrown | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,100 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | Peregrine-Alefounder11 | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,017 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | Barnaby-Pauncefote | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,083 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 1d | Elowen-Gotobed | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,357 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 1d | Cumberpatch | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,233 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | Ottilie-Wildblood | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,387 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 1d | Araminta-Sallow | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,685 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 1d | 222Sera-phina92 | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,208 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 1d | rosejennie | 440-459 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,239 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | tianjiyuyunzhilu4 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $34,657 | +$64 +0.2% | 20 |
| 1d | venezuelain2 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,088 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | xiaojido2022 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,165 | +$35 +0.7% | 20 |
| 1d | Sarths | 320-339 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,050 | +$72 +1.8% | 20 |
| 1d | livepo1y | 400-419 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,070 | +$51 +1.0% | 21 |
| 1d | Actual-Ladle | 320-339 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,250 | +$145 +3.4% | 21 |
| 1d | Actual-Ladle | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,299 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 1d | zhenni | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,724 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | 8tSnjSWgyo26Gxt | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d |  Prexpect | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | cool.guide2 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,975 | +$95 +2.4% | 21 |
| 1d | venezuelain2 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,290 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | laolumanjuuma | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | mianbaoxiaoziuma | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | meiyitinghuouma | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | NeoOracle | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,173 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | 0xd615…ae32 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,394 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | niuniuhgir | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,898 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | miyugyiftu66 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,398 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | ElonSimp2 fills | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,465 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 1d | xiaojido2022 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,123 | +$22 +0.2% | 20 |
| 1d | ElonSimp2 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,155 | +$16 +0.5% | 20 |
| 1d | Actual-Ladle | 300-319 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,230 | +$74 +1.7% | 20 |
ElonJail731 shares
fishpapav552 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 9 12:00 PM ET to October 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 340-359 means the market gives it about 100%.