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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 360-379 | 100% | +82 pts | +99 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −9 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −59 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | −3 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d | Unsightly-Editor | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,032 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 3d |  Espagan | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,399 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 3d | RootWoot | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,684 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 3d |  FatFrumos | 360-379 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,164 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 3d | cool.guide | 360-379 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 3d | zhenni | 360-379 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 3d |  Prexpect | 360-379 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,992 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 3d |  PredictionYogi | 360-379 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,597 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 3d |  Gustav4-1 | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,038 | +$28 +0.4% | 20 |
| 3d | Actual-Ladle2 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,090 | +$130 +3.2% | 21 |
| 3d |  y111m11 | 380-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,010 | +$9 +0.9% | 20 |
| 3d | ym-mzt1 | 360-379 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,057 | +$13 +1.2% | 20 |
| 3d |  upont | 360-379 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,011 | +$13 +1.3% | 20 |
| 3d | livepo1y | 380-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,405 | +$24 +1.0% | 20 |
| 3d | PredictionYogi | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,397 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 3d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | thisissocool11 | 400-419 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,886 | −$22 −1.2% | — |
| 4d | zlfi2 fills | 380-399 | SellNo63¢ → 100¢ | $2,195 | −$1,291 −59% | — |
| 4d | ElonSimp8 fills | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $14,619 | −$21 −0.1% | — |
| 4d | Houdray2 fills | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,358 | +$21 +0.2% | 20 |
| 4d | PredictionYogi | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,090 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 4d | tianjiyuyunzhilu3 fills | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $23,678 | +$72 +0.3% | 20 |
| 4d | hetacz2 fills | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,349 | +$17 +0.3% | 20 |
| 4d | Ottilie-Wildblood | 400-419 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,372 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 4d | welcometowinnercircle | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,793 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d |  WaHoooo | 400-419 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,050 | +$7 +0.7% | 20 |
| 4d | ElonSimp4 fills | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,210 | +$25 +0.4% | 20 |
| 4d | zhenni | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 4d | venezuelain3 fills | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,437 | +$18 +0.3% | 20 |
| 4d |  Memorinas | 340-359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,258 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 4d | Sarths | 340-359 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,375 | +$84 +1.9% | 21 |
| 4d | upont3 fills | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,219 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 4d | thisissocool11 | 400-419 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,881 | +$28 +1.5% | 20 |
| 4d | onekey02 | 460-479 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,555 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | ProsperIntelligence | 360-379 | SellYes53¢ → 100¢ | $1,480 | −$1,290 −87% | — |
| 4d | ElonSimp4 fills | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,149 | −$13 −0.2% | — |
| 4d | beatyesterday2 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $68,293 | +$112 +0.2% | 20 |
| 4d | ElonSimp4 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,909 | +$91 +1.1% | 20 |
| 4d | Memorinas | 320-339 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,379 | +$31 +1.3% | 20 |
| 4d | Espagan | 380-399 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,360 | +$33 +2.4% | 21 |
| 4d |  AndreaPirlo | 340-359 | BuyYes65¢ → 0¢ | $1,411 | −$1,411 −100% | 28 |
| 4d | carboyant | 440-459 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,429 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | tianjiyuyunzhilu4 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $23,742 | +$32 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | miyugyiftu66 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,098 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | venezuelain2 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | xiaojido202 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,991 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | grokel | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | upont | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 4d | onekey023 fills | 500+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,639 | +$61 +0.6% | 20 |
| 4d |  Feracios | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,705 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 5d |  decacepa | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,640 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 5d | decacepa | 480-499 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,342 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 5d | OsvaldoMarianao27 | 340-359 | BuyYes66¢ → 0¢ | $2,400 | −$2,400 −100% | 25 |
| 5d | rosejennie | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,226 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 5d | upont | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,727 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 5d | Cumberpatch | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,226 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 5d | Araminta-Sallow | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,671 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 5d | zlfi | 380-399 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,400 | +$159 +4.7% | 21 |
| 5d | 222Sera-phina92 | 500+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,432 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 5d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,088 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
stauffen7,220 shares
LordYeah1,515 sharesAndreaPirlo608 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 6 12:00 PM ET to October 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 360-379 means the market gives it about 100%.