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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +30 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −11 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 111d | RootWoot | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,639 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 111d |  Annica2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,573 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 111d |  PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,532 | +$28 +0.2% | 20 |
| 111d |  Gustav43 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,329 | +$95 +1.3% | 20 |
| 111d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,104 | +$19 +0.6% | 20 |
| 111d |  y111m11 | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,902 | +$68 +2.4% | 21 |
| 111d | Intelligent-Tax | 40-64 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,920 | +$80 +4.2% | 21 |
| 111d | Intelligent-Tax3 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,355 | +$208 +4.8% | 21 |
| 111d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,195 | +$144 +6.6% | 22 |
| 112d | RootWoot | 40-64 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$140 +9.3% | 23 |
| 112d | dddtrips | 40-64 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,059 | +$233 +22% | 26 |
| 112d |  upont3 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,641 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 112d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 90-114 | BuyNo100¢ | $3,726 | +$19 +0.5% | 20 |
| 112d | Ruddy-Beret | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,099 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 112d | Gustav4 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,717 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 112d | Intelligent-Tax | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,531 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 112d | Intelligent-Tax | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,645 | +$18 +1.1% | 20 |
| 112d | udt123 | <40 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,881 | −$153 −8.2% | — |
| 112d |  hedgebo | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$38 +3.8% | 21 |
| 112d | anon.1980.123 | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,811 | +$189 +3.9% | 21 |
| 112d | luca882 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,153 | +$24 +0.5% | 20 |
| 112d | nbjui1 | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,279 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 112d | nbjui12 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,287 | +$19 +0.6% | 20 |
| 112d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,855 | +$25 +0.6% | 20 |
| 112d | Degenerate-Dude | <40 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | +$34 +3.2% | 21 |
| 112d |  dz1ft2 fills | <40 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,328 | +$204 +8.8% | 22 |
| 112d | still | <40 | SellNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,231 | −$332 −27% | — |
| 112d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,263 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 112d | Adorable-Initial | 65-89 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$205 +10% | 22 |
| 112d | Adorable-Initial | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,000 | +$62 +0.8% | 20 |
| 113d | nbjui1 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,277 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 113d | still | <40 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$64 +4.2% | 21 |
| 113d |  Mei-ji | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,113 | +$17 +1.5% | 20 |
| 113d | dafei888 | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,500 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 114d | credence0918 | 40-64 | BuyNo54¢ → 0¢ | $1,215 | −$1,215 −100% | 25 |
| 115d |  Boss7 | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 115d | Irondo | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,826 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
Orlandox1 sharesdz1ft3,735 shares
Lux250 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 25 12:00 PM ET to June 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.