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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65-89 | 100% | +40 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −28 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −13 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97d |  Espagan | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,208 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 97d | Shallow-Diadem | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,673 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 97d | beatyesterday | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,702 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 97d | beatyesterday | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,962 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 97d |  Green.Gold | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,382 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 97d | onekey02 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,868 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 97d |  PredictionYogi | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,819 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 97d | freedom318 | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,600 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 97d | Green.Gold | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,865 | +$12 +0.4% | 20 |
| 97d | BinaryBaron | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,764 | +$11 +0.6% | 20 |
| 97d | udt123 | 65-89 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,671 | −$29 −1.7% | — |
| 97d |  y111m11 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,110 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 97d | Actual-Ladle | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,090 | +$12 +1.1% | 20 |
| 98d | Hurtful-Snow | 65-89 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$65 +2.2% | 21 |
| 98d | ppobb1123 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,091 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 98d | BinaryBaron | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,473 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 98d | carboyant | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,395 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 98d | suifeng668 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,500 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 98d | dafei888 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,498 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 98d |  jesterthegoose2 fills | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $13,013 | +$66 +0.5% | 20 |
| 98d | pumpkincousin29 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,546 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 98d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,010 | +$93 +9.2% | 22 |
| 98d | pingfan666 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 98d | nbjui1 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,500 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 98d | luca88 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,042 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 98d | luca88 | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$50 +4.2% | 21 |
| 98d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,198 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 98d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,254 | +$89 +2.1% | 21 |
| 98d | 0xFd67277Fa638e39eaE6 | 115-139 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,382 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 98d | Espagan | 90-114 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,060 | +$151 +7.3% | 22 |
| 98d | anon.1980.1233 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,753 | +$90 +1.6% | 20 |
| 98d | NeoOracle | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,464 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 99d | beatyesterday2 fills | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,809 | +$17 +0.3% | 20 |
| 99d | anon.1980.123 | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,658 | +$46 +0.8% | 20 |
| 101d | cornprovide | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,376 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
dz1ft21,474 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 9 12:00 PM ET to July 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 65-89 means the market gives it about 100%.