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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160-179 | 100% | +68 pts | +87 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −10 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −11 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −59 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −6 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −1 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | 0 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91d |  sayinhakansafi | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,700 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 92d |  stauffen | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,387 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 92d | anon.1980.123 | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $11,052 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 92d | windyww | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,076 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 92d | Radiant-Nonbeliever | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,323 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 92d | YuzuLemon | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,862 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 92d | Konium | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,158 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 92d | startrader | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,022 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 92d |  Espagan | 140-159 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,251 | −$33 −1.0% | — |
| 92d | pupupuup2 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $7,044 | +$1,878 +27% | 27 |
| 92d | karen2p | 140-159 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $2,846 | +$689 +24% | 26 |
| 92d | startrader | 140-159 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,412 | +$105 +7.4% | 22 |
| 92d | Bankrupt-Loser | 140-159 | BuyYes84¢ → 0¢ | $1,941 | −$1,941 −100% | 25 |
| 92d | YuzuLemon | 160-179 | BuyNo81¢ → 0¢ | $1,299 | −$1,299 −100% | 26 |
| 92d | dddtrips | 160-179 | SellYes31¢ → 100¢ | $1,181 | −$2,628 −223% | — |
| 92d |  LinabellAccountStolen | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,153 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 92d |  PredictionYogi | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,042 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 92d | Espagan | 140-159 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,194 | +$330 +15% | 24 |
| 92d | Espagan | 180-199 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,958 | −$17 −0.6% | — |
| 92d | Amir10001 | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,264 | +$41 +0.6% | 20 |
| 92d | CakeBake | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,687 | +$17 +1.0% | 20 |
| 92d | loveheng | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,985 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 92d | ppobb1123 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,411 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 92d | Repulsive-Hit | 180-199 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,119 | +$23 +2.1% | 21 |
| 92d | Intelligent-Tax | 180-199 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,926 | +$39 +2.0% | 21 |
| 92d | CakeBake | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,991 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 92d | Rickz88 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,030 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 92d | Actual-Ladle | 200-219 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,247 | −$7 −0.6% | — |
| 92d | Assured-Familiarity | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,675 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 92d | onekey022 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,684 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 92d | pingfan666 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 92d | dafei888 | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,671 | +$19 +0.7% | 20 |
| 92d | nbjui1 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 92d | Bankrupt-Loser | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,093 | +$41 +0.8% | 20 |
| 92d | Rickz88 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,026 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 92d | nole-ksum | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,056 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 92d |  Elonurmom | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,262 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 92d | zzhzz | 140-159 | SellNo71¢ → 100¢ | $1,065 | −$431 −40% | — |
| 92d | sayinhakansafi | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,833 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 92d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,253 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 92d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,562 | +$24 +0.1% | 20 |
| 92d | Intelligent-Tax | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 92d | Actual-Ladle | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,245 | +$9 +0.7% | 20 |
| 92d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,256 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 92d | Saori.Kido | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 92d | Favorable-Pepper-Brushing | 180-199 | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,555 | −$212 −14% | — |
| 92d | 0B062 fills | 120-139 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,965 | −$112 −2.3% | — |
| 92d | MoonDat3 | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,778 | +$18 +1.0% | 20 |
| 92d | 0B062 fills | 120-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,421 | +$49 +1.1% | 20 |
| 93d | DK8882 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo70¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 28 |
| 93d | onekey02 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,944 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 93d | luca88 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,361 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 93d | suifeng668 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,940 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 93d | nbjui1 | 120-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,332 | +$13 +0.9% | 20 |
| 93d | anon.1980.123 | 120-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,815 | +$23 +0.8% | 20 |
| 93d | CakeBake | 120-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $14,910 | +$90 +0.6% | 20 |
| 93d | stauffen | 180-199 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,100 | +$290 +9.4% | 21 |
| 93d |  axelverse.sol | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,138 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 93d | 0xB177dvgu7 | 120-139 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,407 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 93d |  triple-purple | 160-179 | SellYes39¢ → 100¢ | $1,115 | −$1,734 −156% | — |
y111m11994 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 10 12:00 PM ET to July 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 160-179 means the market gives it about 100%.