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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | 100% | +3 pts | +11 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 24 | 100% | +14 pts | +51 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 31 | 0% | −11 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 27 | 100% | +10 pts | +51 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 31 | 100% | +2 pts | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| September 22 | 100% | +51 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 20 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 31 | 100% | +1 pts | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 15d |
| September 23 | 100% | +51 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 17 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24d | DueDiligenceDan | September 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,270 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 24d | dedidanc | September 23 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,087 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 24d | dedidanc | September 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,241 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 24d | dedidanc | September 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,110 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 24d |  jesterthegoose | September 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,224 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 24d | Peaceful-Fire-Bell | September 22 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,258 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 24d | Peaceful-Fire-Bell2 fills | September 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,637 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 24d | Peaceful-Fire-Bell | September 23 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,779 | +$19 +1.1% | 20 |
| 24d | Peaceful-Fire-Bell | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $22,663 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 24d | melonmanm | September 24 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,272 | +$50 +4.0% | 21 |
| 25d | DueDiligenceDan | September 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,246 | +$25 +2.0% | 20 |
| 25d | dedidanc | September 24 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,159 | +$166 +14% | 21 |
| 26d | Unsung-Patina-Bronze | September 24 | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $1,582 | +$380 +24% | 21 |
| 27d |  BigMackyG | September 30 | BuyNo16¢ → 0¢ | $1,990 | −$1,990 −100% | 24 |
| 27d | BigMackyG | September 27 | BuyNo24¢ → 0¢ | $3,161 | −$3,161 −100% | 26 |
| 27d | BigMackyG | September 24 | BuyNo29¢ → 0¢ | $1,405 | −$1,405 −100% | 23 |
| 27d | Unsung-Patina-Bronze | September 30 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,165 | +$296 +25% | 20 |
| 28d |  The-Joker | September 20 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,128 | +$55 +4.9% | 21 |
| 41d |  Contentious-Dinnerdate | September 30 | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $2,579 | +$1,008 +39% | 20 |
| 42d | Linslav | September 30 | SellNo38¢ → 0¢ | $1,032 | +$1,032 +100% | — |
| 44d | Serene-Broadcast | September 30 | BuyYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,348 | +$909 +67% | 20 |
| 46d | thoodr | August 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,435 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 57d |  libratus1 | December 31 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,254 | +$53 +4.2% | 20 |
BigMackyG16,654 shares
Bananamennumberone1,600 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for September 30 means the market gives it about 100%.