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Polymarket · PoliticsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro <5% | 100% | +65 pts | +78 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Lula da Silva <5% | 0% | −50 pts | −57 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Lula da Silva 5-10% | 0% | −11 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Lula da Silva 10-15% | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Lula da Silva 15%+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% | 0% | −3 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+ | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Renan Santos Victory | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Tarcisio de Freitas Victory | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ratinho Júnior Victory | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d |  youmetmeataverychinesetimeofmylife | Flávio Bolsonaro <5% | SellYes>99¢ | $1,498 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 12d | tphhh | Flávio Bolsonaro <5% | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,357 | +$4 +0.1% | 10 |
| 12d | Crock95 | Flávio Bolsonaro <5% | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,929 | +$20 +1.1% | 10 |
| 12d | DD-88 | Flávio Bolsonaro <5% | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,083 | −$30 −2.7% | — |
| 12d | StudentMoney3 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,749 | +$85 +1.8% | 10 |
| 12d |  Lucerys | Lula da Silva <5% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,116 | +$3 +0.3% | 10 |
| 12d | Tyatsmr | Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,323 | +$27 +2.1% | 11 |
| 12d | 9797979797997 | Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $15,000 | +$2,243 +15% | 13 |
| 12d | Musk5 | Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,770 | +$230 +13% | 13 |
| 12d |  GroovyCr0c0dil3 | Flávio Bolsonaro <5% | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,080 | −$270 −25% | — |
| 12d | Intentional-Cane-Flow | Flávio Bolsonaro <5% | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $7,590 | +$2,530 +33% | 19 |
| 12d | 0x49cf…5b3e | Flávio Bolsonaro <5% | SellYes56¢ → 100¢ | $2,015 | −$1,582 −79% | — |
| 12d |  The-Joker | Flávio Bolsonaro <5% | BuyYes45¢ → 100¢ | $1,039 | +$1,258 +121% | 18 |
| 12d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed3 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro <5% | BuyNo71¢ → 0¢ | $4,258 | −$4,258 −100% | 10 |
| 12d | LulaVaiPerder5 fills | Lula da Silva 5-10% | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $38,727 | +$4,825 +12% | 10 |
| 13d | Bigggggggg2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro <5% | BuyNo65¢ → 0¢ | $2,421 | −$2,421 −100% | 15 |
| 13d | Close-Wording | Lula da Silva <5% | BuyYes54¢ → 0¢ | $2,647 | −$2,647 −100% | 18 |
| 13d | Bigggggggg2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,871 | +$134 +3.5% | 11 |
| 13d | Bigggggggg2 fills | Lula da Silva 5-10% | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $4,716 | +$583 +12% | 12 |
| 13d | Bigggggggg2 fills | Lula da Silva 10-15% | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,285 | +$15 +0.3% | 10 |
| 13d | Renan20302 fills | Lula da Silva <5% | BuyYes56¢ → 0¢ | $6,304 | −$6,304 −100% | 15 |
| 13d | Renan20302 fills | Lula da Silva 5-10% | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $7,246 | +$1,312 +18% | 11 |
| 13d | flawfence2 fills | Lula da Silva 5-10% | BuyYes11¢ → 0¢ | $5,937 | −$5,937 −100% | 28 |
| 13d |  ThanksGivingTurkey1001 | Lula da Silva 5-10% | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $3,069 | +$341 +11% | 12 |
| 13d | SuperavitFiscal | Lula da Silva 5-10% | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,229 | +$253 +11% | 12 |
| 13d |  BigMackyG2 fills | Lula da Silva <5% | BuyNo40¢ → 100¢ | $3,279 | +$4,973 +152% | 12 |
| 14d | FLash7-134 | Lula da Silva <5% | BuyYes71¢ → 0¢ | $8,354 | −$8,354 −100% | 15 |
| 14d | BeginnersLuck22 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,605 | +$14 +0.4% | 10 |
| 14d | LulaVaiPerder | Lula da Silva <5% | BuyYes63¢ → 0¢ | $3,165 | −$3,165 −100% | 15 |
| 15d | 657657573 fills | Lula da Silva <5% | BuyYes58¢ → 0¢ | $10,633 | −$10,633 −100% | 10 |
| 15d |  Ryxon21 | Flávio Bolsonaro <5% | BuyNo75¢ → 0¢ | $1,200 | −$1,200 −100% | 14 |
| 21d | efflo-polka | Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,223 | +$39 +3.2% | 10 |
| 23d | Sr.Matiaz | Lula da Silva <5% | SellYes55¢ → 0¢ | $1,355 | +$1,355 +100% | — |
| 25d |  ZePeba | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo>99¢ | $1,113 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 25d | 65765757 | Lula da Silva 5-10% | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,296 | +$284 +12% | 10 |
| 193d |  Roflan-ludoman | Renan Santos Victory | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$92 +4.8% | 10 |
| 202d | sloganbd71 | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,358 | −$118 −8.7% | — |
| 202d | Athletels69 | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,332 | −$116 −8.7% | — |
| 202d | violinHorn | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,398 | −$83 −5.9% | — |
| 202d | seedlb10 | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,399 | −$93 −6.6% | — |
| 202d | song-jump | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,498 | −$99 −6.6% | — |
| 202d | Pinknz71 | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,347 | −$89 −6.6% | — |
| 202d | Pinknz71 | Renan Santos Victory | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,202 | +$102 +8.5% | 10 |
| 202d | climb362 | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,327 | −$104 −7.9% | — |
| 202d | dry79 | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,194 | −$94 −7.9% | — |
| 202d | wayki68 | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,246 | −$98 −7.9% | — |
| 202d | shuffle.friend.empower | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,172 | −$99 −8.5% | — |
| 202d | customuk43 | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,151 | −$97 −8.5% | — |
| 202d | fence3866 | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,221 | −$103 −8.5% | — |
| 202d | virus930 | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,051 | −$79 −7.5% | — |
| 202d | wait12 | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,206 | −$91 −7.5% | — |
| 202d | spike7533 | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,078 | −$81 −7.5% | — |
| 202d | garlicrx68 | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,197 | −$75 −6.3% | — |
| 202d | Walnut.Twice.Pair | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,218 | −$76 −6.3% | — |
| 202d | bubble070 | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,007 | −$76 −7.5% | — |
| 202d | vitalla75 | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,101 | −$83 −7.5% | — |
| 202d | donkey-rebel | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,011 | −$78 −7.8% | — |
| 202d | gap98 | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | −$81 −7.8% | — |
| 202d | employNut | Renan Santos Victory | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,305 | +$128 +9.8% | 10 |
| 202d | Farm-Cotton | Renan Santos Victory | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,074 | −$104 −9.6% | — |
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Flávio Bolsonaro <5% means the market gives it about 100%.