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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 24 | 100% | +64 pts | +40 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 31 | 100% | +16 pts | +18 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 31 | 100% | +6 pts | +5 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 23 | 0% | −87 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 31 | 100% | +1 pts | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 14d |
| December 31 | 100% | +1 pts | +1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| July 22 | 0% | −2 pts | −45 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 27 | 100% | +48 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 29 | 100% | +26 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 17 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 16 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84d |  IceFrosst | July 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,035 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 84d | foxmaskrr | July 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,230 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 84d | yougotme | July 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,093 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 84d | Smug-Skating | July 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,949 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 84d | 99cbets | July 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,251 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 84d |  Ahpo | July 27 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,792 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 84d | Ahpo | July 29 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,048 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 84d |  MunichWeatherFrog | July 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,646 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 84d | yougotme | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,309 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 84d | yougotme | August 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,228 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 84d | yougotme2 fills | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $29,131 | +$29 +0.1% | 20 |
| 84d |  Gleaming-Pear2 fills | July 27 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,032 | +$18 +0.3% | 20 |
| 84d | 99cbets2 fills | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $21,532 | +$23 +0.1% | 20 |
| 84d |  The-Joker2 fills | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,646 | +$23 +0.2% | 20 |
| 84d | 0x8931…a90c2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $30,578 | +$32 +0.1% | 20 |
| 84d | yougotme | July 29 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,622 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 84d | Gleaming-Pear | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $24,976 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 84d |  CoinTrick | July 24 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,648 | +$18 +1.1% | 20 |
| 84d | Gleaming-Pear2 fills | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,936 | +$27 +0.2% | 20 |
| 84d | The-Joker2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,484 | +$34 +0.2% | 20 |
| 84d | The-Joker2 fills | July 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,337 | +$46 +1.4% | 20 |
| 84d |  Rumpelstiltskin2 fills | July 24 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $14,540 | +$460 +3.2% | 21 |
| 84d |  Rex416 | July 24 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $10,369 | +$321 +3.1% | 21 |
| 84d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | July 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,215 | −$7 −0.6% | — |
| 84d | Rex416 | July 27 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,542 | +$26 +1.0% | 20 |
| 84d |  Hakei. | July 27 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,506 | +$31 +2.0% | 20 |
| 84d | Hakei. | July 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,013 | +$10 +1.0% | 20 |
| 84d | Gleaming-Pear | August 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,532 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 84d | Hakei. | July 29 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,399 | +$14 +1.0% | 20 |
| 84d |  double7 | July 24 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,779 | +$36 +2.0% | 21 |
| 84d | Hakei. | July 24 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,520 | +$69 +4.5% | 21 |
| 84d | dry-september | July 24 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,449 | +$128 +8.8% | 22 |
| 84d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed2 fills | July 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,197 | +$90 +2.2% | 20 |
| 84d | ronaldk | July 24 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,119 | +$271 +24% | 25 |
| 84d | The-Joker | July 29 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,198 | +$79 +6.6% | 20 |
| 84d |  kl1v | July 24 | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $1,511 | +$584 +39% | 27 |
| 84d | asdaqwefs4 fills | July 24 | BuyYes58¢ → 100¢ | $8,965 | +$6,560 +73% | 28 |
| 84d | Gk-itjjtt | July 24 | SellYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,005 | −$495 −49% | — |
| 85d | The-Joker2 fills | August 31 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,969 | +$80 +2.7% | 20 |
| 85d |  Parz1vaI | July 31 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $7,691 | +$1,357 +18% | 20 |
| 85d | foxmaskrr | July 24 | BuyYes39¢ → 100¢ | $2,040 | +$3,196 +157% | 29 |
| 85d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed2 fills | August 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,277 | +$213 +5.0% | 20 |
| 85d | bimbumbap22 | July 24 | BuyYes30¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$2,812 +234% | 29 |
| 85d | babymario141 | July 24 | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $1,132 | −$1,132 −100% | 26 |
| 85d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | July 24 | BuyNo75¢ → 0¢ | $1,143 | −$1,143 −100% | 27 |
| 85d |  BossuSmekeru2 fills | July 24 | BuyNo74¢ → 0¢ | $3,216 | −$3,216 −100% | 27 |
| 85d | Timely-Accident-Cigarette2 fills | July 24 | BuyNo75¢ → 0¢ | $3,964 | −$3,964 −100% | 27 |
| 85d | Gk-itjjtt2 fills | July 24 | BuyYes29¢ → 100¢ | $3,815 | +$9,169 +240% | 33 |
| 85d |  Phantom69 | July 27 | BuyNo48¢ → 0¢ | $1,049 | −$1,049 −100% | 22 |
| 85d | Mild-Barn | July 29 | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$1,045 +52% | 25 |
| 85d | Parz1vaI | July 24 | BuyNo75¢ → 0¢ | $1,315 | −$1,315 −100% | 24 |
| 85d | double7 | July 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,013 | +$13 +1.3% | 20 |
| 85d | Rex416 | July 23 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | +$177 +18% | 24 |
| 85d | The-Joker | July 23 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,185 | +$239 +20% | 24 |
| 85d |  rewardbots | July 23 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,201 | +$282 +23% | 25 |
| 85d | opusrelease | July 23 | SellNo51¢ → 100¢ | $1,332 | −$1,287 −97% | — |
| 85d |  treantprotecto | July 23 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,706 | +$234 +14% | 23 |
| 85d |  PseudoIntellect | July 31 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,572 | −$208 −5.8% | — |
| 85d | treantprotecto | July 23 | SellYes72¢ → 0¢ | $1,173 | +$1,173 +100% | — |
| 85d |  Contentious-Dinnerdate | July 24 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,009 | −$100 −9.9% | — |
balthazar4,877 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for July 24 means the market gives it about 100%.