| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 2,696 | 51¢ → 54¢ | $1,443 | +$70 +5.1% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 1,020 | 64¢ → 64¢ | $653 | +$1 +0.2% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 685 | 45¢ → 86¢ | $586 | +$274 +88% |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 4,448 | 13¢ → 13¢ | $556 | −$42 −7.0% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?Ends in 134d | Yes | 1,391 | 33¢ → 36¢ | $501 | +$40 +8.7% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,436 | 44¢ → 26¢ | $366 | −$266 −42% |
| Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 422 | 65¢ → 75¢ | $317 | +$44 +16% |
| Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 346 | 82¢ → 88¢ | $305 | +$20 +7.2% |
| Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 752d | Yes | 50,504 | <1¢ → 1¢ | $278 | +$26 +10% |
| Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 350 | 57¢ → 71¢ | $247 | +$47 +24% |
| Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 1,435 | 25¢ → 17¢ | $237 | −$128 −35% |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | Yes | 592 | 26¢ → 36¢ | $210 | +$56 +36% |
| Plague case in US by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 209 | 90¢ → 93¢ | $194 | +$5 +2.9% |
| Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?Ends in 75d | Yes | 4,605 | 5¢ → 4¢ | $191 | −$45 −19% |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 201 | 83¢ → 80¢ | $161 | −$6 −3.6% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 153 | 59¢ → 82¢ | $124 | +$35 +39% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 350 | 48¢ → 35¢ | $121 | −$49 −29% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 239 | 49¢ → 40¢ | $96 | −$22 −18% |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 121 | 85¢ → 71¢ | $86 | −$17 −17% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?Ends ended | No | 101 | 73¢ → 82¢ | $83 | +$9 +13% |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 129 | 1¢ → 63¢ | $82 | +$81 +10425% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?Ends in 106d | No | 101 | 72¢ → 71¢ | $71 | −$2 −2.1% |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 512 | 15¢ → 14¢ | $69 | −$9 −11% |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 911 | 7¢ → 6¢ | $57 | −$5 −7.8% |
| Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,242 | 4¢ → 5¢ | $56 | +$6 +11% |
| Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | No | 80 | 65¢ → 70¢ | $56 | +$3 +6.4% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,000 | 6¢ → 5¢ | $55 | −$6 −9.2% |
| Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,202 | 3¢ → 2¢ | $51 | −$17 −25% |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 117 | 35¢ → 41¢ | $48 | +$7 +17% |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 170 | 19¢ → 27¢ | $45 | +$13 +39% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2027?Ends in 348d | Yes | 65 | 67¢ → 63¢ | $41 | −$3 −6.1% |
| Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 5,382 | 1¢ → 1¢ | $38 | −$6 −13% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 32 | 62¢ → 75¢ | $24 | +$4 +20% |
| Will the next Grok model (4.8+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 45 | 57¢ → 51¢ | $23 | −$3 −10% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Ends in 75d | Yes | 100 | 32¢ → 23¢ | $23 | −$10 −30% |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 65 | 57¢ → 32¢ | $21 | −$17 −45% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 80 | 29¢ → 25¢ | $20 | −$3 −15% |
| Will AI solve 4 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,496 | <1¢ → 1¢ | $19 | +$13 +193% |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 32 | 82¢ → 56¢ | $18 | −$8 −32% |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 100 | 20¢ → 18¢ | $18 | −$3 −13% |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 205 | 17¢ → 8¢ | $15 | −$19 −56% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 33 | 38¢ → 33¢ | $11 | −$2 −14% |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 111 | 10¢ → 9¢ | $9 | −$2 −19% |
| Will the next Grok model (4.8+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 51 | 12¢ → 18¢ | $9 | +$3 +50% |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 104 | 8¢ → 7¢ | $7 | −$1 −12% |
| Will Z.ai be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 245 | <1¢ → 3¢ | $6 | +$5 +525% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 20 | 39¢ → 29¢ | $6 | −$2 −26% |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 100 | 15¢ → 6¢ | $6 | −$10 −63% |
| Will SpaceXAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 173 | 1¢ → 3¢ | $5 | +$4 +450% |
| Over $4B crypto hack value in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 50 | 6¢ → 8¢ | $4 | +$1 +26% |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 920 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $3 | −$5 −63% |
| Will AI solve 5 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 201 | <1¢ → 1¢ | $3 | +$3 +1084% |
| Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day?Ends in 75d | Yes | 766 | 3¢ → <1¢ | $3 | −$18 −87% |
| Tabi FDV above $100M one day after launch?Ends in 75d | Yes | 40 | 7¢ → 6¢ | $2 | −$0 −10% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 400 | 2¢ → 1¢ | $2 | −$5 −68% |
| Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 48 | 1¢ → 5¢ | $2 | +$2 +390% |
| Will Tencent be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 88 | 1¢ → 2¢ | $2 | +$1 +225% |
| Will ByteDance be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 102 | 1¢ → 2¢ | $2 | +$1 +158% |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 176 | 1¢ → 1¢ | $1 | +$0 +50% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 17¢ | $1 | +$1 +0.0% |
| Will Z.ai be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 57 | <1¢ → 1¢ | $1 | +$1 +367% |
| Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 183 | <1¢ → <1¢ | $1 | +$1 +302% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 14¢ | $1 | +$1 +0.0% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 14¢ | $1 | +$1 +0.0% |
| Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 400 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $1 | −$7 −92% |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 400 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$7 −95% |
| Will ByteDance be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 246 | <1¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +50% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 7¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will ByteDance have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 641 | <1¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$0 −50% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 6¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 5¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Z.ai have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 437 | <1¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$1 −75% |
| Will ByteDance be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 13 | 1¢ → 2¢ | $0 | +$0 +54% |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 400 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$7 −97% |
| Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 400 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$7 −97% |
| Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 400 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$7 −97% |
| Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 400 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$7 −97% |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 400 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$7 −97% |
| Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 400 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$7 −97% |
| Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 400 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$7 −97% |
| Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 400 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$7 −97% |
| Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 400 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$7 −97% |
| Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 400 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$7 −97% |
| Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 400 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$7 −97% |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 400 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$7 −97% |
| Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 400 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$7 −97% |
| Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 400 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$7 −97% |
| Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 400 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$7 −97% |
| Will ByteDance be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 30 | 3¢ → 1¢ | $0 | −$1 −81% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 3¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Meituan have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 293 | <1¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$0 −50% |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 3¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 2¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will ByteDance be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?Ends in 14d | Yes | 54 | <1¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$0 −50% |
| Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 18 | 1¢ → 1¢ | $0 | −$0 −54% |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 2¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 2¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 2¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 2¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
