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Polymarket · Tech & Science
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 1540 | 46% | 0 pts | +9 pts | 32¢ · 59¢ (26¢) | — | in 76d |
| ↑ 1550 | 35% | +7 pts | +14 pts | 21¢ · 48¢ (27¢) | — | in 76d |
| ↑ 1600 | 9% | — | +6 pts | 5¢ · 13¢ (8¢) | — | in 76d |
| ↑ 1700 | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 6¢ (4¢) | — | in 76d |
| ↑ 1650 | 4% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 2¢ · 6¢ (4¢) | — | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $3,756 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 30d |  0x84828283773829 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,064 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 31d | variant1.meta | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,022 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 31d |  yen4u3 fills | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,268 | +$68 +1.6% | 4 |
| 31d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,088 | +$11 +0.5% | 4 |
| 41d | variant1.meta | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31? | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,013 | +$47 +4.6% | 4 |
| 237d |  big-short | ↑ 1700 | BuyNo88¢ → 96¢ | $1,224 | +$114 +9.3% | 4 |
| 249d | MistahFox | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1500 by December 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,723 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 249d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly2 fills | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1500 by December 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,542 | +$17 +0.1% | 4 |
| 249d |  flexo | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1500 by December 31? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,225 | +$14 +1.1% | 4 |
| 249d |  tsybka2 fills | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1500 by December 31? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,356 | +$78 +2.3% | 4 |
Dr.PNL433 shares
LornaPredicts177 shares
libratus1418 shares
SingletonFamilyFund375 shares
Contentious-Dinnerdate123 shares
Rr5585 shares
lamyk49 shares
NoTeacher39 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 46¢ for ↑ 1540 means the market gives it about 46%.