| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 7,304 | 68¢ → 76¢ | $5,518 | +$560 +11% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 3,000 | 91¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$270 +9.9% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 9,467 | 52¢ → 26¢ | $2,414 | −$2,514 −51% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 1,440 | 77¢ → 81¢ | $1,163 | +$59 +5.4% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 2,616 | 40¢ → 40¢ | $1,033 | −$13 −1.2% |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,123 | 68¢ → 88¢ | $988 | +$221 +29% |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 1,013 | 80¢ → 96¢ | $975 | +$169 +21% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?Ends in 440d | No | 1,000 | 93¢ → 96¢ | $960 | +$31 +3.3% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 1,224 | 73¢ → 77¢ | $937 | +$38 +4.2% |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $30 in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 931 | 76¢ → 86¢ | $796 | +$91 +13% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 1,463 | 50¢ → 53¢ | $768 | +$44 +6.0% |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,566 | 32¢ → 24¢ | $376 | −$125 −25% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,510 | 27¢ → 14¢ | $364 | −$302 −45% |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 444 | 27¢ → 63¢ | $280 | +$162 +137% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 220 | 18¢ → 92¢ | $201 | +$162 +408% |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 2,049 | 19¢ → 10¢ | $195 | −$200 −51% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 400 | 20¢ → 26¢ | $102 | +$24 +31% |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 307 | 55¢ → 33¢ | $100 | −$69 −41% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 440d | Yes | 403 | 22¢ → 22¢ | $91 | +$2 +2.5% |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Ends in 440d | Yes | 256 | 37¢ → 33¢ | $83 | −$12 −12% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?Ends in 9h | No | 82 | 41¢ → 100¢ | $82 | +$48 +144% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 161 | 84¢ → 51¢ | $81 | −$55 −40% |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 225 | 46¢ → 30¢ | $66 | −$37 −36% |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or above $55 in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 65 | 45¢ → 83¢ | $54 | +$25 +84% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 215 | 24¢ → 9¢ | $18 | −$33 −65% |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 1,814 | 3¢ → <1¢ | $6 | −$41 −86% |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 6 | 54¢ → 71¢ | $4 | +$1 +31% |
| Anthropic acquired before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 3 | 60¢ → 97¢ | $2 | +$1 +62% |
| Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 1 | 67¢ → 98¢ | $1 | +$0 +46% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,080 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$25 −100% |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 198 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$14 −100% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,170 | 19¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$222 −100% |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 361 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$123 −100% |
| X Money launch in 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 112 | 23¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$26 −100% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,245 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 404 | 38¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$155 −100% |
| Will Yann LeCun leave Meta this year?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 575 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$176 −100% |
| Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,833 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$19 −100% |
| Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 41 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 324 | 79¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$256 −100% |
| Will OpenAI GPT score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 14 | 57¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$8 −100% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 8,221 | 92¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7,565 −100% |
| Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,066 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$143 −100% |
| Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,938 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
| GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 3,072 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$314 −100% |
| Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,000 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$40 −100% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 190 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$64 −100% |
| Will xAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 701 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| Will xAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,000 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 134 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
| Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 34,414 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$34 −100% |
| Will xAI have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 282 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$45 −100% |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,061 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 405 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 132 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$18 −100% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 749 | 36¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$268 −100% |
| OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,577 | 76¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,197 −100% |
| Fact Check: Is Tyler Robinson queer?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 525 | 29¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$154 −100% |
| Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 880 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$19 −100% |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,354 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$437 −100% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 696 | 60¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$415 −100% |
| Will Mistral have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 540 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 566 | 85¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$481 −100% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 173 | 55¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$95 −100% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,216 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$239 −100% |
| Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 428 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 50 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,953 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 42 | 71¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 198 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 338 | 45¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$152 −100% |
| GPT-5.3 released by February 14, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 9,231 | 44¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4,072 −100% |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 20 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 4,486 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$154 −100% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,445 | 84¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2,057 −100% |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,162 | 27¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$312 −100% |
| Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 417 | 89¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$371 −100% |
| Will the Las Vegas Aces win the 2025 WNBA Championship?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 9 | 87¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 598 | 70¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$419 −100% |
| Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 227 | 55¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$125 −100% |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 29 | 22¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| OpenAI browser in 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | 19¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$19 −100% |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 424 | 64¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$269 −100% |
| Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 700 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$238 −100% |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,866 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$149 −100% |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,191 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$596 −100% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 179 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$14 −100% |
| Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,000 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$300 −100% |
| OpenAI social app in 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 413 | 57¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$235 −100% |
| Will xAI have the second best AI model on September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 260 | 17¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$44 −100% |
| Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 38 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,280 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$142 −100% |
