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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 14 | 100% | +38 pts | +42 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 28 | 100% | +16 pts | +23 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 21 | 100% | +42 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 253d |  OraculumNobius | February 14 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 253d |  The-Joker | February 14 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,157 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 253d |  zb8 | February 21 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,834 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 253d |  bamesjond | February 21 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 253d | bamesjond | February 14 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,195 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 253d | The-Joker | February 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,576 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 253d | derrixgod | February 14 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,058 | +$6 +0.6% | 20 |
| 253d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C294 fills | February 14 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $35,167 | +$2,092 +5.9% | 20 |
| 253d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29 | February 14 | SellYes74¢ → 100¢ | $2,224 | −$776 −35% | — |
| 254d | liangwen | February 14 | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $2,543 | +$978 +38% | 20 |
| 254d | 6F456F7474666A7479 | February 14 | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,475 | +$619 +42% | 20 |
| 254d |  DonAntimatter2 fills | February 28 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,431 | +$296 +12% | 20 |
| 254d | prosey2 fills | February 14 | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $5,026 | +$2,517 +50% | 20 |
| 254d | igloosarecool | February 14 | BuyYes64¢ → 100¢ | $2,246 | +$1,283 +57% | 20 |
| 255d | opwdym12 | February 14 | BuyNo46¢ → 0¢ | $2,812 | −$2,812 −100% | 21 |
| 255d | baddict2 fills | February 14 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $3,884 | +$1,343 +35% | 20 |
| 256d | 0x765f…1508 | February 14 | BuyNo56¢ → 0¢ | $1,670 | −$1,670 −100% | 20 |
| 256d |  Rumpelstiltskin2 fills | February 14 | BuyNo46¢ → 0¢ | $4,602 | −$4,602 −100% | 21 |
| 258d |  Xeny | January 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,621 | +$19 +0.2% | 20 |
| 263d | wubddh2 fills | January 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $5,989 | +$464 +7.8% | 20 |
Rumpelstiltskin9,231 shares
XiJinpingCexo1,614 shares
C1ndereIIa510 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.3 model is made available to the general public by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-5.3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-5.3 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.3 (e.g., ChatGPT-5.3o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5.2, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. Products labeled as GPT-6 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for February 14 means the market gives it about 100%.