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Polymarket · EconomyClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40%+ | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 30%+ | 100% | 0 pts | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 45% | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 35% | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 258d | Lean-Pelt | 40%+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,775 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 258d | aikko | 45% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,693 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 259d | RolandChang2 fills | 40%+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,243 | +$58 +1.4% | 4 |
| 274d | random00 | 40%+ | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,075 | +$220 +20% | 4 |
| 297d | supahao | 45% | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,480 | +$144 +9.7% | 4 |
| 331d |  Allinnothing | 35% | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,830 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 331d |  WhiteLivesMatter2 fills | 35% | BuyYes>99¢ | $64,796 | +$65 +0.1% | 4 |
| 331d | Candid-Pate | 35% | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,656 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 331d |  bigmoneyloser00 | 30%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,102 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 331d | bigmoneyloser00 | 35% | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,555 | +$11 +0.2% | 4 |
| 331d |  garlictrump | 30%+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,477 | +$9 +0.6% | 4 |
| 332d | Illo | 30%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,150 | +$15 +0.5% | 4 |
| 332d |  DonAntimatter | 40%+ | BuyYes37¢ → 0¢ | $1,844 | −$1,844 −100% | 6 |
| 332d | ballboy95 | 30%+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,630 | +$16 +0.6% | 4 |
| 332d | bc1234 | 40%+ | BuyYes70¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 4 |
| 332d | 0x066D64FA7B2e352B9000A51C6b56F53128 | 40%+ | BuyYes66¢ → 0¢ | $3,000 | −$3,000 −100% | 4 |
| 332d | allentang | 40%+ | BuyYes95¢ → 0¢ | $5,031 | −$5,031 −100% | 4 |
| 333d | Hearty-Fall | 30%+ | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,076 | −$48 −2.3% | — |
| 333d | garlictrump | 40%+ | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$159 +11% | 4 |
| 333d | aviato2 fills | 30%+ | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,543 | +$127 +2.3% | 4 |
| 333d | inspectorkot | 30%+ | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,952 | +$50 +2.6% | 4 |
| 333d | Hearty-Fall | 30%+ | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$124 +6.2% | 4 |
| 339d | RolandChang2 fills | 30%+ | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,427 | +$94 +3.9% | 4 |
| 340d | Precious-Sycamore | 40%+ | SellYes32¢ → 0¢ | $3,446 | +$3,446 +100% | — |
| 340d | Limp-Hurdler | 40%+ | SellNo68¢ → 100¢ | $2,637 | −$1,241 −47% | — |
| 340d | Filthy-Timing | 40%+ | SellYes32¢ → 0¢ | $2,293 | +$2,293 +100% | — |
| 341d | Worn-Therapy | 40%+ | BuyNo62¢ → 100¢ | $4,444 | +$2,723 +61% | 7 |
| 341d | New-Estrogen | 40%+ | BuyNo62¢ → 100¢ | $4,583 | +$2,813 +61% | 7 |
| 341d | Limp-Hurdler | 40%+ | BuyNo62¢ → 100¢ | $4,495 | +$2,757 +61% | 7 |
| 344d | Sharp-Availability | 40%+ | SellNo74¢ → 100¢ | $3,885 | −$1,365 −35% | — |
| 344d | Scornful-Stench2 fills | 40%+ | SellYes26¢ → 0¢ | $3,432 | +$3,432 +100% | — |
| 344d | Sharp-Availability | 40%+ | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $3,885 | +$1,365 +35% | 9 |
| 344d | Organic-Initial | 40%+ | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $5,698 | +$2,002 +35% | 7 |
| 344d | Scornful-Stench | 40%+ | BuyYes26¢ → 0¢ | $1,430 | −$1,430 −100% | 12 |
| 345d | Hoarse-Stonework2 fills | 30%+ | SellYes69¢ → 100¢ | $4,008 | −$1,797 −45% | — |
| 345d | Wet-Functionality | 30%+ | SellNo30¢ → 0¢ | $2,729 | +$2,729 +100% | — |
| 345d | Whirlwind-Tactics | 30%+ | SellYes69¢ → 100¢ | $5,061 | −$2,274 −45% | — |
| 346d | Pleasing-Rush | 30%+ | BuyNo43¢ → 0¢ | $4,349 | −$4,349 −100% | 12 |
| 346d | Coordinated-Reorganisation | 30%+ | BuyNo43¢ → 0¢ | $1,301 | −$1,301 −100% | 10 |
| 346d | Wet-Functionality | 30%+ | BuyNo43¢ → 0¢ | $3,911 | −$3,911 −100% | 12 |
| 346d |  RRRPhantom | 40%+ | SellYes51¢ → 0¢ | $9,180 | +$9,180 +100% | — |
| 346d | RRRPhantom | 40%+ | BuyYes96¢ → 0¢ | $17,280 | −$17,280 −100% | 4 |
Rumpelstiltskin361 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Google Gemini 3 model with a score of at least the specified score by the specified January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for 40%+ means the market gives it about 0%.