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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 100% | +77 pts | +79 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| OpenAI | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| DeepSeek | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| xAI | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Meta | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mistral | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Alibaba | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Nvidia | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Baidu | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Z.ai | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Meituan | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 108d | looppau | xAI | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,033 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 108d | NeoOracle | xAI | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 108d | rpontici2 fills | Meta | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,792 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 108d |  iutwpfal2 fills | OpenAI | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $5,078 | +$489 +9.6% | 4 |
| 113d | 0x8931…a90c | Meta | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 113d | 0x8931…a90c | DeepSeek | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,340 | +$6 +0.3% | 4 |
| 113d |  Aq4ExePrd22Jn | Meta | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,356 | −$9 −0.6% | — |
| 113d | Aq4ExePrd22Jn | xAI | SellNo>99¢ | $1,875 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 115d |  elmcap23 fills | Alibaba | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,461 | +$24 +0.5% | 4 |
| 115d | elmcap22 fills | Nvidia | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,693 | +$6 +0.2% | 4 |
| 115d | elmcap22 fills | xAI | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,981 | +$9 +0.2% | 4 |
| 118d | elmcap23 fills | Z.ai | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,922 | +$30 +0.6% | 4 |
| 118d | elmcap2 | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,145 | +$3 +0.3% | 4 |
| 118d | elmcap22 fills | Baidu | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,625 | +$21 +0.8% | 4 |
| 118d | elmcap2 | Meta | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,986 | +$11 +0.4% | 4 |
| 130d |  libratus1 | OpenAI | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,981 | +$224 +7.5% | 4 |
| 131d | Aq4ExePrd22Jn | xAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$22 +1.1% | 4 |
| 134d | iutwpfal | OpenAI | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,342 | −$101 −7.5% | — |
| 138d | Aq4ExePrd22Jn | Meta | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$32 +1.6% | 4 |
| 154d | libratus1 | xAI | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,826 | +$118 +4.2% | 4 |
| 168d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | OpenAI | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $2,899 | +$729 +25% | 4 |
| 171d | RIC25 | OpenAI | SellNo77¢ → 100¢ | $1,306 | −$390 −30% | — |
| 173d | RIC25 | OpenAI | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $1,061 | +$395 +37% | 4 |
| 173d |  rabbit007 | OpenAI | BuyNo64¢ → 100¢ | $1,440 | +$810 +56% | 4 |
| 175d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | DeepSeek | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,124 | −$38 −1.2% | — |
| 178d | KimsLanding | DeepSeek | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,037 | +$66 +6.4% | 4 |
| 187d | rennegan | Mistral | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,037 | +$13 +1.2% | 4 |
| 201d | Grab-Dumb-Rotate | DeepSeek | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,201 | −$97 −8.1% | — |
| 201d | sing-hen | DeepSeek | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,151 | −$93 −8.1% | — |
| 201d | Feenw84 | DeepSeek | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,007 | −$81 −8.0% | — |
| 201d | okaygv77 | DeepSeek | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,007 | −$81 −8.0% | — |
| 201d | ordinaryah60 | DeepSeek | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,166 | −$93 −8.0% | — |
| 201d | dashsu79 | DeepSeek | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,169 | −$93 −8.0% | — |
| 201d | okaygv77 | DeepSeek | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,007 | +$81 +8.0% | 4 |
| 201d | region147 | DeepSeek | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | −$104 −8.0% | — |
| 201d | copy2315 | DeepSeek | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,115 | −$89 −8.0% | — |
| 201d | copy2315 | DeepSeek | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,112 | +$92 +8.2% | 4 |
| 201d | Turkeyelectric | DeepSeek | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,170 | −$96 −8.2% | — |
| 201d | Turkeyelectric | DeepSeek | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,169 | +$97 +8.3% | 4 |
| 202d | trapUrge | DeepSeek | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,098 | −$93 −8.5% | — |
| 202d | reflectMore | DeepSeek | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,131 | −$96 −8.5% | — |
| 202d | stadium.quantum.exotic | DeepSeek | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,042 | −$88 −8.5% | — |
| 202d | spoonLobster | DeepSeek | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,178 | −$100 −8.5% | — |
| 202d | sadnessLab | DeepSeek | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,249 | +$106 +8.5% | 4 |
| 202d | spoonLobster | DeepSeek | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,179 | +$100 +8.5% | 4 |
| 202d | describeBag | DeepSeek | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,227 | −$98 −8.0% | — |
| 202d | describeBag | DeepSeek | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,272 | +$99 +7.8% | 4 |
| 202d | Connect.Gravity.Sand | DeepSeek | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,245 | −$99 −8.0% | — |
| 202d | dolphinVenue | DeepSeek | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | −$81 −7.5% | — |
| 202d | twenty-female-silly | DeepSeek | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,122 | −$84 −7.5% | — |
| 202d | dwarf-midnight | DeepSeek | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,283 | −$94 −7.3% | — |
| 202d | mixedwb64 | DeepSeek | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,285 | −$94 −7.3% | — |
| 202d | bidgk96 | DeepSeek | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,237 | −$90 −7.3% | — |
| 202d | paveiz82 | DeepSeek | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,149 | +$89 +7.8% | 4 |
| 202d | scan-lucky | DeepSeek | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,105 | +$88 +8.0% | 4 |
| 202d | enemyqu16 | DeepSeek | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,296 | −$98 −7.5% | — |
| 202d | Ramp-Vanish | DeepSeek | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,050 | −$79 −7.5% | — |
| 202d | clipCute | DeepSeek | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,428 | −$107 −7.5% | — |
| 202d | clipCute | DeepSeek | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,420 | +$115 +8.1% | 4 |
| 202d | vital1668 | DeepSeek | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,184 | +$95 +8.0% | 4 |
TheeLeg807 shares
allanhaze700 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Anthropic means the market gives it about 100%.