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Polymarket · Tech & ScienceClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 100% | +3 pts | +13 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 0% | — | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended | |
| OpenAI | 0% | −1 pts | +3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Alibaba | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Z.ai | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| xAI | 0% | −4 pts | +4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| DeepSeek | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Moonshot | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mistral | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Meituan | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Company A | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company K | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company L | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200d |  noreasapa | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,373 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 200d | noreasapa | xAI | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,052 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 200d | influenz.eth | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,696 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 200d | influenz.eth | OpenAI | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,696 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 200d | influenz.eth | xAI | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,696 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 200d | noreasapa | Anthropic | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,402 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 200d | Momolly | Z.ai | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,744 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 200d | Momolly | Moonshot | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,655 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 201d | iversen | Mistral | SellNo>99¢ | $1,078 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 203d | Balikata | DeepSeek | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,391 | +$4 +0.3% | 4 |
| 203d | Maddo | OpenAI | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,056 | +$3 +0.3% | 4 |
| 203d | Lagus | Anthropic | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,810 | +$27 +1.5% | 4 |
| 203d | DamonBurton3 fills | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,207 | +$6 +0.2% | 4 |
| 203d | SheaGarcia2 fills | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,138 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 203d | EstherHicks | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,069 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 203d | KylianHuffman | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,069 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 203d | VeraBrown | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,069 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 203d | FinnleyMendoza | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,069 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 203d | GiovanniOsborne | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,069 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 203d | DreamAli | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,069 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 203d | SkylerNelson | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,069 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 203d | BerkeleyCalderon | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,069 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 203d | ArlethMoreno | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,069 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 203d | EmirBonilla | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,060 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 203d | RooseveltColon | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,053 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 203d | KhariJackson | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,062 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 203d | EarthaChase | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,126 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 203d | Juicy-HurryNew account | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,043 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 203d | Smug-ThermalsNew account | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,085 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 203d | Outstanding-PhotographyNew account | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 203d | Periodic-BotherNew account | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,126 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 203d | Slimy-BungalowNew account | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,057 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 204d | wubddh | Anthropic | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,216 | +$50 +2.3% | 4 |
| 204d | fa3fadgy4aSFF | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,101 | −$25 −0.8% | — | |
| 204d | defaDRS544RTD | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,111 | −$25 −0.8% | — | |
| 204d | fa3fadgy4aSFF | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,101 | +$25 +0.8% | 4 | |
| 204d | defaDRS544RTD | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,111 | +$25 +0.8% | 4 | |
| 204d | shhgfbas87fgahj | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,110 | +$25 +0.8% | 4 | |
| 204d | OIug987GUHG | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,102 | +$25 +0.8% | 4 | |
| 204d | iversen | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,079 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 205d | Starchy-CauseNew account | Meituan | SellNo>99¢ | $1,017 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 205d | Diligent-QuinceNew account | Meituan | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,041 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 205d | Second-JugNew account | Meituan | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,100 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 205d | Colorful-RealNew account | Meituan | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,023 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 205d | Gracious-Sorbet-TongueNew account | Meituan | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,110 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 205d | Slippery-PondNew account | Meituan | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,060 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 205d | Worthwhile-AmazementNew account | Meituan | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,090 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 205d | MarshellWood2 fills | Meituan | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,092 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 205d | EmberYoung2 fills | Meituan | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,086 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 205d | LuciaMoore2 fills | Meituan | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,096 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 205d | OliverCross | Meituan | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,038 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 205d | GertrudeWilliams | Meituan | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,033 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 205d | MaliaPatrick | Meituan | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,037 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 205d | MerlynRoth | Meituan | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,052 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 205d | JasmineDoyle | Meituan | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,043 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 205d | LianLopez | Meituan | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,053 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 205d | TraceDelacruz | Meituan | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,065 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 205d | SinclairAnderson | Meituan | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,040 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 206d |  Justitia2 fills | DeepSeek | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,536 | +$113 +1.7% | 4 |
| 207d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | DeepSeek | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,436 | +$15 +1.0% | 4 |
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Anthropic means the market gives it about 100%.