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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 28, 2026 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| June 30, 2026 | 100% | +24 pts | +77 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| May 31, 2026 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 14, 2026 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| February 6 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 30, 2026 | 100% | +10 pts | +31 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 31, 2025 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 12, 2026 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 19, 2026 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 31, 2026 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| March 15, 2026 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 129d |  Gleaming-Pear | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,072 | +$25 +0.3% | 20 |
| 129d |  duderr | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,129 | +$16 +0.7% | 20 |
| 129d |  balthazar | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,703 | +$17 +1.0% | 20 |
| 129d | Gleaming-Pear | June 19, 2026 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,729 | +$32 +0.9% | 20 |
| 129d |  The-Joker3 fills | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $5,537 | +$2,563 +46% | 20 |
| 129d |  tourists6 fills | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $19,620 | +$8,029 +41% | 20 |
| 129d | enjoyevery | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,231 | +$49 +2.2% | 20 |
| 129d | bimbumbap22 | June 30, 2026 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,654 | −$238 −5.1% | — |
| 130d |  Waterfall2 fills | June 12, 2026 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $3,870 | +$949 +25% | 20 |
| 130d | Djheuhebe2 fills | June 12, 2026 | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $8,367 | +$2,023 +24% | 20 |
| 130d | The-Joker | June 12, 2026 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,254 | +$257 +20% | 20 |
| 130d | magamaga883 fills | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $38,137 | +$2,802 +7.3% | 20 |
| 130d | e888884 fills | June 30, 2026 | BuyNo22¢ → 0¢ | $9,346 | −$9,346 −100% | 32 |
| 130d | bimbumbap222 fills | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $2,409 | +$633 +26% | 20 |
| 130d | Half-EnrollmentNew account | June 30, 2026 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,960 | −$226 −7.7% | — |
| 130d |  aenews2 | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $29,959 | +$1,595 +5.3% | 20 |
| 130d | mwenya2 fills | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $3,600 | +$292 +8.1% | 20 |
| 130d | enjoyevery | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,325 | +$125 +2.9% | 20 |
| 130d | d85jg3979 | June 30, 2026 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,013 | −$83 −8.2% | — |
| 130d | aenews2 | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,115 | +$46 +4.2% | 20 |
| 130d | bananabreakfast | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,025 | +$293 +29% | 20 |
| 130d | magamaga88 | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,709 | +$410 +8.7% | 20 |
| 130d | The-Joker | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,196 | +$118 +9.9% | 20 |
| 130d | Djheuhebe3 fills | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $10,425 | +$3,954 +38% | 20 |
| 130d | Legal-Minimum-Providence | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $4,507 | +$1,849 +41% | 26 |
| 132d | Gleaming-Pear | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $4,462 | +$2,005 +45% | 20 |
| 132d | hkimcont6 fills | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes29¢ → 100¢ | $7,951 | +$19,826 +249% | 28 |
| 133d |  Parz1vaI | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes63¢ → 100¢ | $3,684 | +$2,164 +59% | 20 |
| 133d | Sticky-Closing | June 30, 2026 | SellNo63¢ → 0¢ | $1,947 | +$1,947 +100% | — |
| 133d | Half-EnrollmentNew account | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes31¢ → 100¢ | $2,101 | +$4,682 +223% | 38 |
| 133d |  TimeDecay | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes62¢ → 100¢ | $2,707 | +$1,661 +61% | 20 |
| 134d | rkassandra4 fills | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes25¢ → 100¢ | $5,226 | +$15,974 +306% | 28 |
| 135d | guacamole | June 30, 2026 | BuyNo85¢ → 0¢ | $1,016 | −$1,016 −100% | 20 |
| 136d |  shingoWAKAYAMA | June 30, 2026 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $1,599 | −$1,599 −100% | 20 |
| 136d | shingoWAKAYAMA | September 30, 2026 | BuyNo32¢ → 0¢ | $1,600 | −$1,600 −100% | 22 |
| 137d | hz8 | June 30, 2026 | BuyNo74¢ → 0¢ | $1,283 | −$1,283 −100% | 20 |
| 137d | tentenbytwenty | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes29¢ → 100¢ | $6,855 | +$16,951 +247% | 28 |
| 140d |  George.Smiley | May 31, 2026 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,658 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 140d |  Contentious-Dinnerdate | June 30, 2026 | SellYes30¢ → 100¢ | $3,503 | −$8,281 −236% | — |
| 140d | warlasfutpro | June 30, 2026 | SellNo60¢ → 0¢ | $1,812 | +$1,812 +100% | — |
| 140d |  FermatsLastFruit | September 30, 2026 | SellYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,062 | −$714 −67% | — |
| 140d | polywanta | May 31, 2026 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,387 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 141d |  elmcap2 | May 31, 2026 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | +$5 +0.5% | 20 |
| 141d |  hulinali | May 31, 2026 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,030 | +$73 +0.9% | 20 |
| 141d | Sticky-Closing | June 30, 2026 | BuyNo83¢ → 0¢ | $6,013 | −$6,013 −100% | 20 |
| 141d | datawitch | June 30, 2026 | BuyNo76¢ → 0¢ | $1,523 | −$1,523 −100% | 20 |
| 143d | FermatsLastFruit | September 30, 2026 | BuyYes57¢ → 100¢ | $1,424 | +$1,075 +75% | 20 |
| 147d | nndmg | May 31, 2026 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,458 | +$42 +2.9% | 20 |
| 147d | nndrekop | May 31, 2026 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,283 | +$50 +3.9% | 20 |
| 148d | betke | May 31, 2026 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,276 | −$100 −7.8% | — |
| 148d | diuki346 | May 31, 2026 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,228 | −$97 −7.9% | — |
| 148d | cnjds | May 31, 2026 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,345 | −$106 −7.9% | — |
| 148d | juliads | May 31, 2026 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,284 | −$95 −7.4% | — |
| 148d | riohsa | May 31, 2026 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,275 | −$87 −6.8% | — |
| 148d | badbunnydtmf | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes21¢ → 100¢ | $1,201 | +$4,517 +376% | 21 |
| 148d | badbunnydtmf | May 31, 2026 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,220 | −$59 −4.8% | — |
| 149d | mesmep | May 31, 2026 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,177 | −$50 −4.2% | — |
| 150d | diuki346 | May 31, 2026 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,280 | +$45 +3.5% | 20 |
| 151d | riohsa | May 31, 2026 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,310 | +$52 +4.0% | 20 |
| 151d | mesmep | May 31, 2026 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,180 | +$47 +4.0% | 20 |
Goliath-Online17,915 shares
drakelong11,584 shares
DonAntimatter5,807 shares
GorillaGang50 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for April 30, 2026 means the market gives it about 0%.