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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No release by January 31 | 100% | +1 pts | +7 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 29 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 30 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 31 | 0% | −26 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 1 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 2 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 3 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 4 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 5 | 0% | −3 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 6 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 7 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 8 | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 9 | 0% | −2 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 10 | 0% | −4 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 11 | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 12 | 0% | −2 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 13 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 14 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 15 | 0% | −4 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 16 | 0% | −13 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 17 | 0% | −4 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 18 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 19 | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 20 | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 21 | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 22 | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 23 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 24 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 25 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 26 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 27 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 28 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 29 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 258d | Abandoned-Counsel3 fills | No release by January 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,228 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d |  bamesjond | January 26 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,179 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d |  PredictionYogi | January 26 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,088 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 263d | ggwaltney | January 27 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,608 | +$122 +1.4% | 20 |
| 265d | Tsubasa | January 26 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,246 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 265d | lisra2 fills | No release by January 31 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,568 | +$224 +8.7% | 21 |
| 266d | Tsubasa | January 24 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,558 | +$9 +0.6% | 20 |
| 267d | MovingForward | January 22 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,028 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 267d |  Awestin.eth | January 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,165 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 267d |  Parz1vaI2 fills | January 22 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,253 | +$37 +0.7% | 20 |
| 268d | ggwaltney | January 22 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,382 | +$51 +0.8% | 20 |
| 268d | PikaCHU4482 fills | January 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,465 | +$25 +0.4% | 20 |
| 269d | PredictionYogi | January 20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,805 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 269d | bamesjond2 fills | January 20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,896 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 269d | Parz1vaI2 fills | January 20 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,837 | +$48 +1.7% | 20 |
| 270d | Secondary-Coevolution | No release by January 31 | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,123 | +$355 +32% | 20 |
| 270d | lisra | January 21 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,880 | +$120 +1.2% | 20 |
| 270d | lisra | January 20 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,780 | +$15 +0.8% | 20 |
| 270d | PredictionYogi3 fills | January 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,650 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 271d |  ComingBack | January 21 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$18 +1.6% | 20 |
| 271d | sybaujustbet | January 19 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,011 | +$6 +0.6% | 20 |
| 271d |  UwO | January 18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,109 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 272d | PredictionYogi3 fills | January 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,722 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 273d | PredictionYogi2 fills | January 16 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,543 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 273d | notmuch | January 16 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,804 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 274d | qwe258 | January 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,239 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d | PredictionYogi | January 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,656 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 275d | notmuch | January 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,007 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 276d | PredictionYogi | January 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,666 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 277d | PredictionYogi | January 12 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | PredictionYogi | January 12 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,928 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 278d | PredictionYogi2 fills | January 11 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,872 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 278d | notmuch | January 11 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,186 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d | PredictionYogi2 fills | January 10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,962 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d | notmuch | January 10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,726 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 280d | PredictionYogi | January 9 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,018 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 280d | notmuch | January 9 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,724 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 281d | slamjampeter | January 8 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,521 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 281d | PredictionYogi | January 8 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,895 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 281d | PredictionYogi | January 7 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,193 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 281d | notmuch | January 8 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,627 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 282d | PredictionYogi | January 7 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,193 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 283d | PredictionYogi | January 6 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,866 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 284d | PredictionYogi | January 5 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,754 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | PredictionYogi | January 5 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,159 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 285d |  ZhangMuZhi- | January 4 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,056 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 285d | PredictionYogi | January 4 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,612 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 286d | PredictionYogi | January 3 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,895 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 288d | PredictionYogi | January 1 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,831 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 288d | PredictionYogi | January 1 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,665 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 289d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | December 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,557 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 290d | PredictionYogi | December 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,736 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) when xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public. This market will resolve to "No release by January 31" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is not made available to the general public by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To qualify, Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public. Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for No release by January 31 means the market gives it about 100%.