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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 10 | 100% | +3 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 31 | 0% | −3 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 15 | 100% | +2 pts | +29 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 31 | 100% | +1 pts | +16 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 5 | 0% | −11 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 31 | 100% | 0 pts | +3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| April 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 31 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 435d | SweetChariot | August 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,104 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 435d | mcamerinop | August 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,811 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 435d |  fffffz | August 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $19,970 | −$20 −0.1% | — |
| 435d |  ProfessionalPunter | August 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $14,816 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 435d |  tourists | August 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $35,815 | −$36 −0.1% | — |
| 435d | publicbank | August 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,111 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 435d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | August 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $50,249 | +$50 +0.1% | 20 |
| 435d |  Anjun | August 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,297 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 435d |  Dropper | August 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,938 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 435d |  CoffeeDespiser | August 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,134 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 435d | x0vrpp | August 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,094 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 435d |  verysensitive | August 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,763 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 435d | verysensitive | August 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,806 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 435d | LFC8 | August 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,042 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 435d | test5567 | August 10 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,513 | −$94 −1.3% | — |
| 435d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C292 fills | August 10 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $14,103 | +$622 +4.4% | 20 |
| 435d | cigarettes3 fills | August 10 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,830 | +$60 +1.0% | 20 |
| 435d | Ordon | August 10 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,146 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 435d | slamjampeter | August 10 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,980 | +$20 +0.5% | 20 |
| 435d | Gmoney123 | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,121 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 435d | Xaci | August 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,006 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 435d |  ScottyNooo4 fills | August 10 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $18,762 | +$289 +1.5% | 20 |
| 435d | Qtyu | August 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,851 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 435d | Drowerz6 fills | August 10 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $21,227 | −$569 −2.7% | — |
| 435d | definitelyasuit2 fills | August 15 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,750 | −$65 −2.4% | — |
| 435d | cipherpilot2 fills | August 10 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,905 | +$30 +1.0% | 20 |
| 435d |  Gr33d | August 10 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$10 +1.0% | 20 |
| 435d | ProfessionalPunter4 fills | August 31 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $6,513 | −$384 −5.9% | — |
| 435d |  0xdc3E831cad2 fills | August 10 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,986 | −$113 −1.9% | — |
| 435d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29 | August 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,395 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 435d | glarity | August 15 | BuyYes100¢ | $7,156 | +$36 +0.5% | 20 |
| 435d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | August 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,425 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 435d | whatisthisclownmarket3 fills | August 10 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $17,364 | +$199 +1.1% | 20 |
| 435d | Lgbjbh | August 10 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,094 | −$22 −2.0% | — |
| 435d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29 | August 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,835 | −$17 −0.5% | — |
| 435d | glarity2 fills | August 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,069 | +$19 +0.2% | 20 |
| 435d | leiger | August 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,101 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 435d | leiger | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,156 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 435d | leiger | August 10 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,141 | +$39 +1.8% | 20 |
| 435d | BeN | August 10 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,022 | +$21 +2.0% | 20 |
| 435d | astromage | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,697 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 435d | astromage | August 15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,426 | +$14 +1.0% | 20 |
| 435d | astromage | August 10 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,473 | +$31 +2.1% | 20 |
| 436d |  BeneGesseritVoice | August 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,492 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 436d |  EscapeVelocity | August 10 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,556 | +$46 +3.0% | 20 |
| 436d |  yzh101 | August 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,214 | −$14 −1.1% | — |
| 436d |  Roflan-ludoman | August 15 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,073 | −$14 −1.3% | — |
| 436d | MacMoneysac2 fills | August 31 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $19,948 | −$446 −2.2% | — |
| 436d | 0xaefb…11af | August 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,114 | −$13 −0.6% | — |
| 436d | blackbelt | August 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,266 | −$18 −0.6% | — |
| 436d | klnr11 | August 10 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,380 | +$50 +2.1% | 20 |
| 436d | tennisbowling2 fills | August 10 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $12,484 | −$1,897 −15% | — |
| 436d | ProfessionalPunter2 fills | August 15 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $2,713 | +$699 +26% | 20 |
| 436d |  kl1v2 fills | August 10 | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,666 | −$472 −18% | — |
| 436d | Throwpotato71209 fills | August 10 | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $52,247 | +$21,402 +41% | 22 |
| 436d | pitchBlackB0x | August 10 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,621 | −$132 −3.6% | — |
| 436d | Throwpotato71203 fills | August 10 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $22,984 | −$993 −4.3% | — |
| 436d | kekegabor | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,030 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 436d | publicbank | August 10 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,090 | +$22 +2.0% | 20 |
| 436d | AnonymousElephant69 | August 15 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,930 | −$70 −1.4% | — |
Joe-Biden40,000 sharesThis is a market on predicting the release date of GPT-5.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for August 10 means the market gives it about 100%.